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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Obviously low chance for this, but I think it’s definitely interesting. Probably the most interesting threat we’ve had so far this winter.

I get there is a lot of “believe it when I see it” and guarding against a poor solution; but this could get the cape good without much movement currently 

RGEM/EURO/NAM and to a lesser extent the CMC have the goods. 

GFS/Icon are whiffs or meh

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I mean precip - how much...who knows? That's the hard part.

But from a snow total forecast - BL temps will put a tight lid on this for Cape and Islands at least through Sunday Night. Looking at even the 12z CMC, which is nearly ideal track, ratios will be a significant inhibitor.

If the stars align, Sunday night into Monday a.m. could get interesting out there. 

 

 

76ef0043-7917-432e-8ec5-90d151d165a8.gif

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6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

RGEM/EURO/NAM and to a lesser extent the CMC have the goods. 

GFS/Icon are whiffs or meh

The euro was very amped at 6z, tough to discount it at this lead. Unless it’s truly garbage. Ensembles we’re also pretty good.

This will be another euro vomit if it slinks away at 12z

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The euro was very amped at 6z, tough to discount it at this lead. Unless it’s truly garbage. Ensembles we’re also pretty good.

This will be another euro vomit if it slinks away at 12z

Was just thinking that same thing…there was a time when if the Euro showed this at 3 days lead…take it to the bank.  Now, not so much. 

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The euro was very amped at 6z, tough to discount it at this lead. Unless it’s truly garbage. Ensembles we’re also pretty good.

This will be another euro vomit if it slinks away at 12z

Given 12z models so far, I can discount it lol. We still watch, but caution flags all over.

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