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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re the weekend 

folks should be aware of this indirect /possible factorization 

image.thumb.png.5b84f7f08ae6d14097029086ce673e78.png

 

 

Interesting, looks like the Nao is going from positive to neutral. I’d like to see that more negative but storm threats do happen more often when the teleconnections are transitioning. 

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11 minutes ago, George001 said:

Interesting, looks like the Nao is going from positive to neutral. I’d like to see that more negative but storm threats do happen more often when the teleconnections are transitioning. 

Correct, it is important when evaluating to keep in mind that the magnitude scalar value of total change, is less important than the occurrence change blah blah 

But this weekend’s more recent emergence in the runs may not be triggered by that NAO … it’s really more a situation of getting caught by it. The ocean cyclone’s set into motion first … then the NAO dumps SDs, and in terms of what that means to the pattern … the.cyclone gets a retrograde momentum applied to it -

That appears to be the larger scaled super synopsis.

Not a major event. Probably bands rotating in with wet snow cat paws on the Cape with a stripe farther W maybe BOS to PVD and points E. 

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Someone here who has a better memory than me: when is the last time we have had a "last minute surprise" storm pop positively?  Can't recall the lead time on last winter's blizzard.  Beyond that, it is not as if we have a lot of recent history to work with given the relative downward trend in threats.

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It's for symbolism perhaps ...but considering where this winter has been at least out side my doors here in Ayer, seeing it snowing at 28 F is a rare, precious come-by.  Well formed small to mid sized dry aggregates, with a couple of degrees to spare no less.

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