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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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There is a chance this could evolve sooner with a risk insert... 

While the 19th/20th may not directly be embedded in the extended range pattern change expectation, but could transitively be influenced ( that outta sound confusing!).

The GGEM and Euro ideas surrounding +PP building over QUE and confluence in that area, might be getting enhanced by the ridge surging into western N/A - this latter aspect is the leading edge of the changes ... so, there may be some causality there.

Anyway, this is not unheralded, these solutions with cold available at least to CNE and possibly to the Pike in Mass ( if not colder?).  I thought yesterday that the bigger polar high idea the GFS had the previous day ...might not be baseless.  And it still isn't. 

There's time ...

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43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

One term I hated and still hate to this day. I can hear Don Kent's voice in my head saying " Well it looks like our storm is headed up the St Lawrence Seaway and we will be on the warm side of things" I would turn the radio off in disgust and as a kid be mad all day. Lol

Just like todays.

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The 22nd to me still looks messy. Maybe a SWFE type deal? After that it looks better,  but you still risk messy events. It’s a hell of a lot better than what we have and maybe things go right for once. 

Expanding out, looks like a strong push of cold later month into early Feb. That might be our best time for sustained winter. 

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep lol. I woke up dreaming I heard his distinct voice saying that lol

I still uses that term,(st lawrence river valley) Just did on another boards discussion, That track never produces for anything worthwhile for most other then mainly rain.

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Noting the NAO slump ... not really a mode change, but it is neutralizing from +1 SD - may be the other side of the same coin with the PNAP changes forcing the NAO domain down. Either way, that might be a sensitivity indicator/suppression tendencies correcting in small but crucial amount, given time. 

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Just now, dryslot said:

I still uses that term, Just did on another boards discussion that track never produces for anything worthwhile for most.

There are distinct key sayings that either give you wood or shrinkage. Kids won't understand what it feels like to have to listen to weather radio or wait 12 hours for a news update. I don't know how many times I got up from bed to watch the 11 pm news with my Dad just to watch the weather report in winter or laid in bed listening to weather radio hoping to hear good news. 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

 

It's raining 

Still snow here, but the sleet/rain line is pretty close. Looks wintry for the first time since well before Christmas. 32.4/27.7

This system would have been a really nice SWFE if we had some sort of blocking in place, I didn't expect the snow to hold on this long

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There are distinct key sayings that either give you wood or shrinkage. Kids won't understand what it feels like to have to listen to weather radio or wait 12 hours for a news update. I don't know how many times I got up from bed to watch the 11 pm news with my Dad just to watch the weather report in winter or laid in bed listening to weather radio hoping to hear good news. 

Yup, Same, I still have my weather radio from radio shack, Pretty redundant then you would hear an update and your sheets rose or your weenie still was deflated........lol

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think no that happens Sunday. It’s got support across the board 

Might be the few times 

 

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wagons west. Soon Kev will claim 4 to 6 to the Ct River.

I’ll take a dusting to an 1” for the win!

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