TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The amount of spread on these makes it somewhat useless to try and prognosticate on snowfall. The majority are not good for SNE… you basically have 2 or 3 members with snow and the rest witg nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The majority are not good for SNE… you basically have 2 or 3 members with snow and the rest witg nothing. Which can skew the mean with one or two big hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It's not a 15 day lead. It's a mean snowfall from now through that timeframe. In practice, any snowfall on there south of about the VT/Canada border is prob beyond D9…so in that sense, it’s mostly long range snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s not zero for a reason as their is some members showing potential at the end of the run. But for the first 200 hours it’s zero, which we can all agree matches up well with the pattern the next two weeks Right but that just reinforces my main point…we’re essentially looking at d10-15 snowfall. Nothing before that. Any “calls” about snowfall beyond D10 should be very low confidence. It’s different than when you’re going into a favorable pattern like around d5 where you’d prob get a slew of ensemble members showing something favorable prior to d10. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: In practice, any snowfall on there south of about the VT/Canada border is prob beyond D9…so in that sense, it’s mostly long range snowfall. Correct. I still feel like we're sitting on no-mans land waiting on closer consensus on the pattern change. I'd feel more comfortable if this was Saturday/Sunday and we're seeing it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The amount of spread on these makes it somewhat useless to try and prognosticate on snowfall. #50 gives me a lot of snow so it must be right 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Correct. I still feel like we're sitting on no-mans land waiting on closer consensus on the pattern change. I'd feel more comfortable if this was Saturday/Sunday and we're seeing it. Yeah and I don’t think the pattern looks that great by 1/10 anyway on the EPS. But we’re getting close to peak climo for cold so simply moving away from an AK pig would give us some chances. GEFS looks a bit better. There will likely be changes too on the ensembles given the spread we see right now. The mean is not a high-confidence mean like we saw in the NAO block some weeks back. Ensembles were very confident in that -EPO/-NAO pattern. They are not confident at all in the 11-15 day right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 28, 2022 Author Share Posted December 28, 2022 that EPS snow map looks pretty bad for the SNE crew, worthless or not. 9 or 10 of those are snowless in SNE, and almost all are snowless in SE NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 The 1980’s winters are back again (apparently) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 25 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: The 1980’s winters are back again (apparently) It only took you 5 years to figure that out ? haha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Right but that just reinforces my main point…we’re essentially looking at d10-15 snowfall. Nothing before that. Any “calls” about snowfall beyond D10 should be very low confidence. It’s different than when you’re going into a favorable pattern like around d5 where you’d prob get a slew of ensemble members showing something favorable prior to d10. And that was my feeling as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Restless natives. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Restless natives. Oh for Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro and EPS took a step toward GFS for 1/5-6. That one might be watchable. Esp for NNE but perhaps further south. My advice ( seein' as everyone asked - ) ...is not to look at the 850 mb in that range. That +PP up there is going to correct the BL quite sharply inverted, particularly if that look trends 200 or so mile S ... and it's not likely to be depicted properly at this range - ... that's already a red flag icer in my mind given those main synoptic players. It could also be a 1/3 to mid way thru the event tuck jet scenario, ... lots of weird possibilities with that much weight folding around the elevations up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Restless natives. The future is uncertain, and when it hasn't snowed yet for much of the region, the default setting is reverse psych. I have 2" on the year after a -6SD NAO block..yea, I lost my shit, but you have to get over it and try to be objective moving forward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Even our good friend Phil (great met)close to calling it 1 2 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 I can’t find good news anywhere.. even from Kgay . Can someone offer even something remotely positive thru Jan 15 to look forward to? The next chance for appreciable precipitation comes sometime mid- next week, but given the anomolously warm temperatures in the forecast, that system would look to bring another bout of rain to the region. Given uncertainty in the forecast at 7 days, PoPs were capped next week at chance. Snow lovers will have to put their hopes on the back burner to start the new year as the patter does not look particularly promising with as many as 6-7 50F+ forecast between now and late next week. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Even our good friend Phil (great met)close to calling it Winter cancel? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I can’t find good news anywhere.. even from Kgay . Can someone offer even something remotely positive thru Jan 15 to look forward to? The next chance for appreciable precipitation comes sometime mid- next week, but given the anomolously warm temperatures in the forecast, that system would look to bring another bout of rain to the region. Given uncertainty in the forecast at 7 days, PoPs were capped next week at chance. Snow lovers will have to put their hopes on the back burner to start the new year as the patter does not look particularly promising with as many as 6-7 50F+ forecast between now and late next week. I think our good friend Will had some good advice a few hrs ago. And so did Tip. Stop searching for good news/or more accurately bad like you are. We know the deal for the next week or so. It will improve…gonna take a lil time though. Good news is…I’d rather the thaw now a few days into winter, than late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I can’t find good news anywhere.. even from Kgay . Can someone offer even something remotely positive thru Jan 15 to look forward to? The next chance for appreciable precipitation comes sometime mid- next week, but given the anomolously warm temperatures in the forecast, that system would look to bring another bout of rain to the region. Given uncertainty in the forecast at 7 days, PoPs were capped next week at chance. Snow lovers will have to put their hopes on the back burner to start the new year as the patter does not look particularly promising with as many as 6-7 50F+ forecast between now and late next week. Dude, you need to log off for like a solid week and then check back in. You’re going to drive yourself crazy searching for a winter wx event 10+ days out. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Dude, you need to log off for like a solid week and then check back in. You’re going to drive yourself crazy searching for a winter wx event 10+ days out. Now there’s some good advice. I did that a week and a half ago, when this Friday’s storm starting to shit the bed…was the best thing. Stayed away for about 5-6 days, makes ya brand new. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 Kevin hasn’t been the same ever since those squalls missed him and MVY had a WSW event. Hate to see it. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 Squall envy, happens every year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 So much angst over something you cannot control. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Dude, you need to log off for like a solid week and then check back in. You’re going to drive yourself crazy searching for a winter wx event 10+ days out. I just need something.. anything to give me something wx wise to look forward to. Last week at least I had the HWW. There’s literally nothing . Not sure the last time we’ve gone over a month with nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just need something.. anything to give me something wx wise to look forward to. Last week at least I had the HWW. There’s literally nothing . Not sure the last time we’ve gone over a month with nothing A year ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin hasn’t been the same ever since those squalls missed him and MVY had a WSW event. Hate to see it. Let's follow this stretch with a 2/9/87 redux to really spice things up 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Oh it was that high. I didn’t look today. I agree it’s a good piece of guidance for the big picture Yes it was indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just need something.. anything to give me something wx wise to look forward to Dews are coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just need something.. anything to give me something wx wise to look forward to. Last week at least I had the HWW. There’s literally nothing . Not sure the last time we’ve gone over a month with nothing We have record highs to look forward to. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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