HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Put model watching away . There’s no point currently Eh. Looking at ensembles a bit is maybe warranted. But nothing worth digging too deep into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I had a graphic years ago showing the acreage and aerial extent of the “snow zone” vs a “rain zone” on a storm cutting to the Lakes. Like 1/3rd of the US would see rain from it, but like 1/150th of the US would see decent snow from that same system. Take numbers with grain of salt but just showed how hitting the “snow zone” was so hard to thread the needle while everyone east of Mississippi would see rain from the system. Right. I know we’ve said that many times too. It’s not an easy thing to get nailed with synoptic snow. Not to mention op runs jumping all over the place when you’re 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Eh. Looking at ensembles a bit is maybe warranted. But nothing worth digging too deep into. Just seems pointless until there’s any cold air available 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Same sun angle as 12/1 Exactly, month and a half of the prime low solar season wasted on a flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Just seems pointless until there’s any cold air available Yeah no use in looking at OP runs in SNE until maybe this weekend or even next week depending on how any individual threats materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 You all need another “”fix” to rely upon in times like these other than these models lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah no use in looking at OP runs in SNE until maybe this weekend or even next week depending on how any individual threats materialize. 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You all need another “”fix” to rely upon in times like these other than these models lol There’s nothing anyone needs to be or should be looking at thru Monday except the EPS and GEFS. Until things actually start moving and the -PNA disappears... the hand wringing and staying up all night for OP runs and another 10 days of warm rains just doesn’t seem prudent . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just seems pointless until there’s any cold air available Not correct that there's no cold available. <10C 850mb temps to the Carolinas and sub 530dm heights at 500mb throughout the mid-Atl on Saturday. We even have a very high amplitude longwave trof with a nearly perfect alignment and orientation. Our problem is in the nuances of the height structure... the evolution of the shortwave interactions. Snow vs. no-snow outside the mountains is almost always due to the nuances of mid- and upper-level features. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Not correct that there's no cold available. <10C 850mb temps to the Carolinas and sub 530dm heights at 500mb throughout the mid-Atl on Saturday. We even have a very high amplitude longwave trof with a nearly perfect alignment and orientation. Our problem is in the nuances of the height structure... the evolution of the shortwave interactions. Snow vs. no-snow outside the mountains is almost always due to the nuances of mid- and upper-level features. When the entire lower 48 and most of Canada is flooded with Pacific air, other than a weak ass retreating high over Atlantic Canada there is no cold air . It’s a record warm pattern that will not change for at minimum another 10-14 days. Until western and central Canada are cold .. nothing is going to happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I had a graphic years ago showing the acreage and aerial extent of the “snow zone” vs a “rain zone” on a storm cutting to the Lakes. Like 1/3rd of the US would see rain from it, but like 1/150th of the US would see decent snow from that same system. Take numbers with grain of salt but just showed how hitting the “snow zone” was so hard to thread the needle while everyone east of Mississippi would see rain from the system. If you want snow with every system you need to move to the Rockies or Sierras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 48 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Lol I sort of laugh though Wolfie. You give him everything you said he was looking for. He went fishing and caught a wolf. Not sure if 1717 can find a meme for that though. He caught nothing. I gave him what he wanted, because I wanted to. I wanted to make the point that he was fishing and trolling. I didn’t fall for it…I wanted to go at him. So make no mistake…it was deliberate on my part. Just like it was deliberate on my part towards Qgtroll. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When the entire lower 48 and most of Canada is flooded with Pacific air, other than a weak ass retreating high over Atlantic Canada there is no cold air . It’s a record warm pattern that will not change for at minimum another 10-14 days. Until western and central Canada are cold .. nothing is going to happen You can squirm and twist all you want. But facts are facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: You can squirm and twist all you want. But facts are facts. You’re completely wrong. But keep going if you will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When the entire lower 48 and most of Canada is flooded with Pacific air, other than a weak ass retreating high over Atlantic Canada there is no cold air . It’s a record warm pattern that will not change for at minimum another 10-14 days. Until western and central Canada are cold .. nothing is going to happen Canada isn't so warm....GFS initialization at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 those are fairly mild temps, actually. given our source region. modifying/translating here, not what you want to see for extended cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 We’ve had a few fights here and there lately but I’m anticipating a full Boston bar brawl with bottles smashing against heads at the end of the month if the projected favorable pattern craps out with no snow to show for. Prepare. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 I've averaged 34.1F for January thus far, I haven't reduced the archival data yet for mean monthly temps, but I have to imagine that is pretty close to avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’ve had a few fights here and there lately but I’m anticipating a full Boston bar brawl with bottles smashing against heads at the end of the month if the projected favorable pattern craps out with no snow to show for. Prepare. Happened in 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Happened in 2020. Started by Ray? Was 2020 the season we had a nice snower in mid November and then nothing worthwhile until early spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, tavwtby said: I've averaged 34.1F for January thus far, I haven't reduced the archival data yet for mean monthly temps, but I have to imagine that is pretty close to avg. Thats combining highs and lows. That is warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: those are fairly mild temps, actually. given our source region. modifying/translating here, not what you want to see for extended cold and snow. For 1PM EST they're not too far from normal save for the southern 25% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Thats combining highs and lows. That is warm. yeah, three +45F high days skewed it high, believe my mean for the whole month is around 28, I may be wrong there though, take those three days off and I'm probably at climo, haven't had any single digits yet either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Last of the pack. Gone tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 12, 2023 Author Share Posted January 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: For 1PM EST they're not too far from normal save for the southern 25% Is this is the correct time stamp? Looks warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Started by Ray? Was 2020 the season we had a nice snower in mid November and then nothing worthwhile until early spring? There was a big storm in early December of ‘19, that some got buried…Springfield area(if I remember right), on up to Worcester and northern and northeast Mass on up into NH..20 plus inches and more. We got a lil snow, then sleet and a lil ice, then rain, and the next night we had a nice area of snow develop and we got about 8” or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Is this is the correct time stamp? Looks warm that color spectrum is a bit misleading to those who don't know, I mean the same color basically for+12 and -16 it appears , but we know what direction they are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’re in the 50-55” range I think but the data from dxr and oxc is non existent so it’s difficult to verify. I bet we get one good snowfall and some sloppy others to get us to a respectable BN winter, if there is such a thing. Unless March ‘56 walks through the door… Give us one big blockbuster storm, cold for a couple weeks and open up the flood gates of the SE Ridge! 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: You won't finish with 3"...the question is whether you limp your way to something like 15" or rally to a more respectable number. I think we need to get on the scoreboard with a decent event prior to the end of the month if we're going to rally to a more respectable number. Hell, I average over 60" and I'm sitting around 3" as well. It's been pretty amazing to avoid even smaller events or front enders. Though we may pick up an inch or so tomorrow morning before it's washed away. Looks like you have quite the hill to climb as well. At this point a couple good weeks would be just fine....I don't see how we make it to average. But it would be a fun ride if we did....something has to give Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 i take back the single digits statement, we did have a couple days around Christmas where we were single digits for lows, got down to 2.9F lowest of the winter so far, but it was in December so perhaps I wasn't wrong for Jan singles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Is this is the correct time stamp? Looks warm That’s 2m anomalies and mine was raw. It doesn’t look warm outside of that central blob. Point being it’s cold enough for snow and then some so with a sneaky hot of luck it can snow here. Unfortunately it doesn’t look like luck is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Give us one big blockbuster storm, cold for a couple weeks and open up the flood gates of the SE Ridge! Looks like you have quite the hill to climb as well. At this point a couple good weeks would be just fine....I don't see how we make it to average. But it would be a fun ride if we did....something has to give When you average 50” Or so for the season…and it’s January still, average is certainly not out of reach. But we’d need to get rolling as soon as the supposed decent pattern sets in. Gut says we won’t make it, but it’s definitely not impossible. I’m at 3.8” on the season, and even the Rat of 11-12 got to about 18” here, 19-20 was another Rat, and that one was upper 20’s I believe here. So curious where this one ultimately ends up…long way to go still. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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