Spanks45 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS is definitely more of a +PNA with a neutral EPO versus the GEFS which is more solid -EPO and neutral PNA. Both patterns are way better than what we currently have but offer different threat profiles. Shuffle the deck and hope we get a better hand this time....if for some reason we end up with nothing to show for it, It just wasn't our winter. It happens and hopefully next year ends up better. Still sitting under 3" here....I still can't imagine how I don't add onto that number, even by some dumb luck over the next few weeks. This is extreme SNE and I would assume I average around 45" per year around this neck of the woods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Shuffle the deck and hope we get a better hand this time....if for some reason we end up with nothing to show for it, It just wasn't our winter. It happens and hopefully next year ends up better. Still sitting under 3" here....I still can't imagine how I don't add onto that number, even by some dumb luck over the next few weeks. This is extreme SNE and I would assume I average around 45" per year around this neck of the woods. You won't finish with 3"...the question is whether you limp your way to something like 15" or rally to a more respectable number. I think we need to get on the scoreboard with a decent event prior to the end of the month if we're going to rally to a more respectable number. Hell, I average over 60" and I'm sitting around 3" as well. It's been pretty amazing to avoid even smaller events or front enders. Though we may pick up an inch or so tomorrow morning before it's washed away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS is definitely more of a +PNA with a neutral EPO versus the GEFS which is more solid -EPO and neutral PNA. Both patterns are way better than what we currently have but offer different threat profiles. I'd take EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I was watching snow melt on pavement in the sun today despite mid-20s and thought of Nape Season. Yeah it's definitely noticeable midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 23 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Shuffle the deck and hope we get a better hand this time....if for some reason we end up with nothing to show for it, It just wasn't our winter. It happens and hopefully next year ends up better. Still sitting under 3" here....I still can't imagine how I don't add onto that number, even by some dumb luck over the next few weeks. This is extreme SNE and I would assume I average around 45" per year around this neck of the woods. We’re in the 50-55” range I think but the data from dxr and oxc is non existent so it’s difficult to verify. I bet we get one good snowfall and some sloppy others to get us to a respectable BN winter, if there is such a thing. Unless March ‘56 walks through the door… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd take EPS I would too...it looks more favorable in the Jan 21-25 period than the GEFS, though GEFS look like they are about to go nuclear on the cold near the end. But EPS looks like it might want to build the EPO ridge much higher if it went out further....you could see it building at the very end. Regardless, either pattern is going to give chances better than the current pattern. Hopefully we can get some good timing for once. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, kdxken said: Yeah it's definitely noticeable midday. Yeah, we all noticed that improving sun angle today 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 it snowin 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: A fun exercise would be to post a bunch of months of H5 composites with the dates on each month blacked out and have people guess if the month was a big snow producer or not. My guess is a lot of people would get them wrong. Everyone is obsessed with looking for the "perfect pattern"....trying to find this unattainable fantasy pattern where cutters are not possible and every threat hits New England with accumulating snow. Example below: Guess which year each of these February maps were? And were any of them prolific? Some nice EPO dumps 1 2 4 but no guarantees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 40 minutes ago, kdxken said: Yeah it's definitely noticeable midday. Snow melts on black pavement year round lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 sun angle talk 3 weeks from the solstice. brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Some nice EPO dumps 1 2 4 but no guarantees The reveal is: 1. 1989 2. 2014 3. 2021 4. 1994 So 2 through 4 were prolific snow producers but 1 was a horrific dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Ground covered Plymouth OES . 34f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: sun angle talk 3 weeks from the solstice. brutal Same sun angle as 12/1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, amarshall said: Ground covered Plymouth OES . 34f . nice! had a dusting here. maybe a bit more coming from Cape Cod bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The reveal is: 1. 1989 2. 2014 3. 2021 4. 1994 So 2 through 4 were prolific snow producers but 1 was a horrific dud. March 89 pissed me off. Super cold suppression depression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 Worked in Woburn today, temps were around 28-32 but the sun made it feel relatively mild. 1 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 47 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah, we all noticed that improving sun angle today Did you stare at it? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Pattern change?? Hmmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: I was watching snow melt on pavement in the sun today despite mid-20s and thought of Nape Season. I think that phenomena is pretty much in play most of the winter. Dec 15 to Jan 15 aob climo is pretty much the only time SNE doesn’t have snow melting on a sunny day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS looks really nice too Watch it be a repeat of December with a big wound up cutter in the Midwest and another Arctic blast. Don't underestimate the ridging east of New England. Very warm sea anomalies in that region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pattern change?? Hmmm Interesting 2006 is mentioned…in Feb NYC got an all timer. In fact, I recall Tip saying in the fall that while he thought the winter 2006 would be a dud, we could get a snowstorm that equals our seasonal totals in 1 go, which is what happened to me with 27 inches. Wonder if he remembers. Best call ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Interesting 2006 is mentioned…in Feb NYC got an all timer. In fact, I recall Tip saying in the fall that while he thought the winter 2006 would be a dud, we could get a snowstorm that equals our seasonal totals in 1 go, which is what happened to me with 27 inches. Wonder if he remembers. Best call ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 ORH, Do you have past weather stats easily accessible on your computer or is much of it stored in your head? I find your recall of past winters amazing. You and Don Sutherland should write a book on the past 30 or 40 winters. Both of you guys contribute so much valuable information to this board. Thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 The GFS looked like the two events next week are basically fropas for us and then some potential winter weather after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The GFS looked like the two events next week are basically fropas for us and then some potential winter weather after that? The GFS offers yet a third option to the EPS vs the GEFS ... No pattern at all - This run has a 9.4 wave pattern over the Hemisphere at D11.5. Garbage solution. It's clearly having trouble on the interface between patterns out there. I'd definitely sans any operational GFS runs outside of 7 or so days, even more so than the normal for extended shenanigans, until NCEP figures out the physics of non-linear wave mechanics... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 yeah ..this totally happens all the time .... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Operational runs be like "what pattern change?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 More of the same on the OP gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 It truly seems like we basically get one favorable run for a storm about 7-8 days out and then it immediately goes to shit and locks in for the next 6 days. the 6z gfs has a nice snowstorm for central and NNE next Thursday into Friday and since then it has trended into basically a weak fropa/cutter that has moved 1000 miles NW and the confluence has disappeared into thin air in two runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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