jbenedet Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 It’s all kinda backward. Usually mets complain about amateurs not using H5 enough; I think most lately are guilty of not testing those juicy H5 depictions by seeing what the model output is showing at those same hrs @ 850 and below. Red flags. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: It’s all kinda backward. Usually mets complain about amateurs not using H5 enough; I think most lately are guilty of not testing those juicy H5 depictions by seeing what the model output is showing at those same hrs @ 850 and below. Red flags. You posted a different time when the predicted new pattern was in its infancy. Roll forward from that point to the end and you get a different picture. To effectively match what Brooklyn posted show 312 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Meh…d12 mean. No need to sweat the details at this point…especially the surface. There’s probably a few cutters in there driving up the 2m temps. It doesn’t need to be perfect to snow in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: You posted a different time when the predicted new pattern was in its infancy. Roll forward from that point to the end and you get a different picture. To effectively match what Brooklyn posted show 312 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: You’re being somewhat misleading…I don’t understand your gripe? Brooklyn99 showed a different time as Jerry said…why always trying to one up, and compare Apples and oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Pope doesn’t like the look. Lock in the snow. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 43 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: I’m nipple deep in 200 hour gfs powder this winter for sure! You must be pretty short! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 BDR is just killing it for theoretical snow fall this winter. You guys in Mass can put this in your pipes and smoke it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 49 minutes ago, dendrite said: Meh…d12 mean. No need to sweat the details at this point…especially the surface. There’s probably a few cutters in there driving up the 2m temps. It doesn’t need to be perfect to snow in January. Right, Just needs to be below 32°F when it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 I ain’t biting on the new pattern anyway until we’re closer. It’s primarily PAC-driven so Bruce Willis caution flags are out. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Toss any “new” pattern far and wide. PAC SST anomalies support the continued strong PAC jet ripping into the west coast 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I ain’t biting on the new pattern anyway until we’re closer. It’s primarily PAC-driven so Bruce Willis caution flags are out. Of course…I mean that goes without saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I ain’t biting on the new pattern anyway until we’re closer. It’s primarily PAC-driven so Bruce Willis caution flags are out. I buy it to an extent but I agree with the Pope that even if we get it, it’s not a good pattern for SNE. The ridge axis scares me, and the blocking looks weak, too weak to stop storms from running inland. Hopefully Ray is right about the big finish in March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, George001 said: I buy it to an extent but I agree with the Pope that even if we get it, it’s not a good pattern for SNE. The ridge axis scares me, and the blocking looks weak, too weak to stop storms from running inland. Hopefully Ray is right about the big finish in March. It’s fine as depicted. It’ll morph as these things always do as we close in…for the better, or for the worse. So don’t get too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 fully expect to this around here by the end of the month. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Persistence is the easy forecast at this point. Everyone knows it. The real skill though is always the one who can figure out when to break from persistence. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 0 degrees! Looks like we’ll have our first below 0 reading of the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Persistence is the easy forecast at this point. Everyone knows it. The real skill though is always the one who can figure out when to break from persistence. Great post. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Persistence is the easy forecast at this point. Everyone knows it. The real skill though is always the one who can figure out when to break from persistence. Right…the ol’ saying about persistence is you are right until the stakes are highest and then you’re very wrong. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 And the band played on… Going to take something big or a long time to break free from this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: BDR is just killing it for theoretical snow fall this winter. You guys in Mass can put this in your pipes and smoke it: And then the 18z GEFS, for the same storm system— snowing at this hr on the 18z GFS. H5 not so bad….”workable” 850 and below… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: And the band played on… Going to take something big or a long time to break free from this. Yup, Need something dramatic to shuffle the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Beer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 angle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 Next 2-4 weeks will decide weenie winters fate, GL all 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 a few of the hires models still hinting at some snow along east coastal mass tomorrow. maybe a coating to an inch in some spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: Remember when things were supposed to turn around after the 10th Can kicked yet again Boy who cried wolf syndrome in full effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Remember when things were supposed to turn around after the 10th Can kicked yet again Boy who cried wolf syndrome in full effect Well the 10th is today, and this new look is after today…so in a sense it’s not wrong lol. Hey, never any guarantees, so just have to see if this idea holds another few days. If it doesn’t, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Whites and Western Maine in for a thumper it seems. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Whites and Western Maine in for a thumper it seems. Alex should get a good base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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