Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was going to say that, but figured maybe it was just a snapshot. 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s a 5 day average i’m just happy to see legit cross polar flow. i’m not that worried about the ridge axis… Feb 2015 had the axis along the WC with a raging +NAO and that worked wonders pretty much all patterns run the risk for cutters, but i will definitely take my chances with what all of the ensembles are agreeing upon I agree it’s a 5 day average and ridge moving east. I’ll take that look all day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Even in 2015 we had great timing on 2 events…2/2/15 was a would-be cutter where the primary made it to CLE and then hit a brick wall of confluence…so it redeveloped we we got 12-20”….then, less than a week later, we had the Feb 7-9 overrunning event that was like 60F in Philly and DC…we avoided a warm rainer in that one due to some well-timed confluence up north yet again. The south coast actually had some issues in each storm so you can see how it wasn’t that far away from being more tainted for the rest of SNE. It was a great pattern that turned epic because we got “lucky” on small scale nuances in 2 events. When we’re looking at ensembles, we cannot tell how those nuances will play out. We only see the very larger picture on the longwave pattern. I think if you’re nitpicking the ensemble pattern shown, maybe you want to see some lower height anomalies in the 50/50 region. But you only need them there when a storm is trying to cut…otherwise it doesn’t really matter 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think if you’re nitpicking the ensemble pattern shown, maybe you want to see some lower height anomalies in the 50/50 region. But you only need them there when a storm is trying to cut…otherwise it doesn’t really matter Has this been missing (post 12/20) seeing as we have seen cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: The last 3 yrs, All 3 were below avg. Same here. 19-20 was rescued from ratter-dom by post equinox storms, with 3.2" on 5/9 for the exclamation point. 20-21 is 2nd lowest here, beating only 15-16, and last winter was on the border between lousy and ratter. The height of frustration came in Feb 2021, when a couple of NNJ sites had more snow in that month than we had for the entire snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, tamarack said: Same here. 19-20 was rescued from ratter-dom by post equinox storms, with 3.2" on 5/9 for the exclamation point. 20-21 is 2nd lowest here, beating only 15-16, and last winter was on the border between lousy and ratter. The height of frustration came in Feb 2021, when a couple of NNJ sites had more snow in that month than we had for the entire snow season. Yeah, The past few seasons have been quite lean in the snow and retention dept our way up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Has this been missing (post 12/20) seeing as we have seen cutters Yes it’s been nothing but high heights up there since Xmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, UnitedWx said: Actually correct, IIRC it was in its formative stages when he was in it. my post was intended tongue in cheek btw... you won't catch me messing with an EF whatever it was. Pretty fortunate more motorists weren't hurt especially on the bridge when the tornado crossed the river. I presume your husband must have been close by because 91 is basically right there. Was truly amazing video, I can't recall seeing something like this before. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, radarman said: my post was intended tongue in cheek btw... you won't catch me messing with an EF whatever it was. Pretty amazing more motorists weren't hurt especially on the bridge when the tornado crossed the river. I presume your husband must have been close by because 91 is right there. Was truly amazing video, I can't recall seeing something like this before. I hear you, I wouldn't want to mess with that either! He was actually on Route 91 northbound just a couple hundred yards south of the bridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s a 5 day average i’m just happy to see legit cross polar flow. i’m not that worried about the ridge axis… Feb 2015 had the axis along the WC with a raging +NAO and that worked wonders pretty much all patterns run the risk for cutters, but i will definitely take my chances with what all of the ensembles are agreeing upon Not for nothing but that analog quite literally has the ridge and trough axis about 500 miles further east. BIG difference. And this season isn't one I'd be discounting it. Persistence is a biatch. Assuming it's correct anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Tough winter so far, but Even tougher winter for fans of Diamond, of Diamond and Silk. Rip. Gone too soon. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Pope posting geps maps now lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: 350 inches now. Winters of yore. Before global warming we used to get that at the top of Talcott. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 25 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Tough winter so far, but Even tougher winter for fans of Diamond, of Diamond and Silk. Rip. Gone too soon. Well that sucks! We are both fans of theirs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: 350 inches now. Winters of yore. Before global warming we used to get that at the top of Talcott. Snow over thee house in the winter of 1771 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Ahhhhh the 18ZGFS giveth SNE love on the 20th. How long will the solution last lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Oh ... speaking of Will's 2015 homage to flat snow pigs... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh ... speaking of Will's 2015 homage to flat snow pigs... was just about to post the same thing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Oh how many pray for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pope posting geps maps now lol. GEFS more or less agrees while eps is further east so hopefully that one is right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Some signs of violence. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Oh how many pray for that. It's a little fast... broad scale systemic changes are likely in the circulation mode ...pretty much all over the atmosphere, but the timing is really 20th+ ... It is not clear if that above is part of that. There is going to be more confluence evolving in Canada as part of the new regime, ..woulda thunk more 25-ish. That 1040 high has some deep 2-meter temperatures associated with it. Haven't seen a lot of that this year. Bit of a first... If future guidance start flagging these polar highs, the notion isn't lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 Love that track on the 18z gfs, just a bit further south and let's lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 39 minutes ago, tavwtby said: was just about to post the same thing A -NAO would go a long way 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Kind of reminds me of some of those events in early Jan 2005 when we had that hostile torch pattern but we snuck a couple decent snow events in anyway (one of them produced a narrow zone of big icing in CT)….those top end winters all seemed to feature something like that where you steal an event or two in an otherwise hostile pattern. The shit seasons are mostly the opposite…you never score in a bad pattern and you whiff more than you should in a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 32 minutes ago, weathafella said: GEFS more or less agrees while eps is further east so hopefully that one is right. It’s the sole fact that he ridicules us for posting maps and using ensembles…then he turns around and does the same thing to prove his point. The definition of a cafeteria catholic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I’m nipple deep in 200 hour gfs powder this winter for sure! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 56 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: A family staying at one of my rentals last week said it was their first time visiting and was raving about how much they loved skiing Bretton Woods. Then they go “yeah we are going to Alta in 2 weeks but this was great.” I almost choked 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oh ... speaking of Will's 2015 homage to flat snow pigs... We should start a thread, name it something like “the storm that will make up the seasonal snow totals” and then watch it turn to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 The beatings will continue until morale improves. H5 keeps roping in the long range model junkies with looks like this. Here’s the EPS with a pretty damn similar look to @brooklynwx99GEPS H5 clip. But then you go and look at the surface and it’s cooked. And with no blocking? This is a worse depiction than what we have coming on day 3; it’s just not resolved yet. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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