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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It doesn't have to "die"....the atmospheric changes lead the SST, anyway, to a large extent.

Yep, I know what you mean. The atmosphere "adjusts" first before any SST response. But right now, the atmosphere for next few weeks still looks Nina to me. 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I just put a bed in the spare bedroom for chasers. I need a partner to run around in the snow for hours with. :lol:

I have a client from East Aurora...he was complaining about shoveling during xmas at home. But thankfully, he "only had 3 feet", as comparted to his sister in a north town.

I wanted to strangle him-

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep, I know what you mean. The atmosphere "adjusts" first before any SST response. But right now, the atmosphere for next few weeks still looks Nina to me. 

I'm not saying the demise is imminent or anything, but pop an Aleutian ridge in Feb and then maybe get some ENSO related help in March.

I'm usually not big on the "la nina will weaken and save the winter" mantra, but it may help a bit this year.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have a client from East Aurora...he was complaining about shoveling during xmas at home. But thankfully, he "only had 3 feet", as comparted to his sister in a north town.

I wanted to strangle him-

East Aurora is a great suburb for snow. The village is incredible too. On average, they get more snow than where I live. 

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

East Aurora is a great suburb for snow. The village is incredible too. On average, they get more snow than where I live. 

The funny thing about that 23’rd-25’th system was measuring the snow was just about impossible . Not sure how the buffalo - Niagara airport went about it . It was just really comical even thinking about how to measure to the standards that are legit .
 

Just dangle some large vat in the air , pointed toward the SW and about 50 feet off the ground ? and then melt it down and guess ratio’s. I would guess Mount Washington May have a effective method for those conditions 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The funny thing about that 23’rd-25’th system was measuring the snow was just about impossible . Not sure how the buffalo - Niagara airport went about it . It was just really comical even thinking about how to measure . 

As cool as it would be to live there an experience that, I don't think I would be as into the seasonal forecasting aspect. Its such a rush to chase the unique set of seasonal variables that marry and lend themselves to a great winter here...its what drives the ambition to try to sort the pieces to the puzzle out correctly. I feel like living in a LE snowbelt would be like playing against the atmosphere in an ice hockey game in which the atmosphere has its goalie pulled all year. :lol:

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

-90 Siberia!

I’d love to experience something like that someday. My current record is -20.

11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I just put a bed in the spare bedroom for chasers. I need a partner to run around in the snow for hours with. :lol:

giphy.webp?cid=82a1493b0hyjtuurv1f3entch

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am the supervisor....and clinician, and biller.

And yes, I talked to myself about it....A LOT, after that Xmas storm went down the drain.

I didn't know you were in private practice!  For God's sake you need to work with a few in these forums - maybe run a support group, and then some 1-on-1 therapy for a few who shall remain nameless.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As cool as it would be to live there an experience that, I don't think I would be as into the seasonal forecasting aspect. Its such a rush to chase the unique set of seasonal variables that marry and lend themselves to a great winter here...its what drives the ambition to try to sort the pieces to the puzzle out correctly. I feel like living in a LE snowbelt would be like playing against the atmosphere in an ice hockey game in which the atmosphere has its goalie pulled all year. :lol:

Ya good luck figuring out the incidence of strong cold Sw winds  from November to early January most years.. 

Or at least until the lake freezes over which apparently usually happens at some point in January (i think) but this year ..hey maybe some late lake effect . 

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The funny thing about that 23’rd-25’th system was measuring the snow was just about impossible . Not sure how the buffalo - Niagara airport went about it . It was just really comical even thinking about how to measure to the standards that are legit .
 

Just dangle some large vat in the air , pointed toward the SW and about 50 feet off the ground ? and then melt it down and guess ratio’s. I would guess Mount Washington May have a effective method for those conditions 

I'm not saying I have had to measure 50" of snow in 60kt winds, but I do have issues with wind in many events. Wind tends to be constant here during the major storms. I have developed some methods to try and help with that. One of them being obs. I know my visibility markers. I sometimes try and substitute snowfall rates given flake size and vis. The storm at the end of Jan last year was extremely difficult. I typically end up being a little conservative, which is fine. I feel better about that vs trying to inflate. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not saying I have had to measure 50" of snow in 60kt winds, but I do have issues with wind in many events. Wind tends to be constant here during the major storms. I have developed some methods to try and help with that. One of them being obs. I know my visibility markers. I sometimes try and substitute snowfall rates given flake size and vis. The storm at the end of Jan last year was extremely difficult. I typically end up being a little conservative, which is fine. I feel better about that vs trying to inflate. 

:weenie: :weenie: :weenie: 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

:weenie: :weenie: :weenie: 

It's a check and balance. If I'm looking out the window and can't see shit for 6 hrs and 3" adds up, obviously something needs to be accounted for. Luckily I have my spots to help minimize drifting, but it gets difficult in the cold, windy events.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Big is the only way to live.

Unless it’s a damaging tornado through my backyard or house getting flooded out/washed away I want it all.

Big snow, big wind, big rain, big heat, big cold, big hail, big ice. Bring it. 

Too easy....I'll let a novice do the honors...

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