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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wasn't being sarcastic.  However, there's questions as to whether the changes would necessarily play nice for winter enthusiasts (20th and thereafter). 

In short, +PNA likely to return.  But if the +PNA is only moderately amplified and/or sets into the hemisphere through a warm (relative to season) Canada and a pinched off high Arctic.

Longer ... Not just relying upon the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFs way out there from D10 onward, either.  The changes are in the systemic machinery at planetary scales ...

We are all aware the recent MJO monitoring and forecasting has a phase 8-1-2 presentation/migration.  Something is in constructive interference - or modeled to be so - in order for that to take place, given to the erstwhile La Nina. CPC's weekly publication released yesterday, corroborates that idea

"• Some changes in the observed wind patterns in both the lower and upper atmosphere portend a potential weakening of the long-lived La Nina."

The MJO is not driving the pattern ...but the models predicting its current behavior, combined with these observations in real time, suggests/implicates a paradigm shift.  The La Nina isn't going away on a dime..no.  But, the pressure and wind patterns tend to lead the SST distribution, so the decoupling we've been seeing over the last ..since the week of Christmas, really, may signal the beginning of the end.  That's quite plausibly beginning to take place.  The constructive interference already beginning ...lends to the +PNA. 

The ensemble means all suggest this ... pretty coherently picking a date, too. Right around the 20th. In fact, the D9/10 of the operational models are in primitive detection as of last night..

 

 

We are shifting towards el nino....which is part of the reason why you (collective sense) can't count this season out. I still think we see a big finish and a nice one next season.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get the parallel, but not for me personally. Its not the same because I spend hours and hours on that winter outlook shit....even during the summer.

It might be the equivalent of an AL only Dynasty league which I played in for 13 years. I likely wasted months and months of time looking at the stats of middling AL prospects that never made it past A ball. 

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2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

2012?

No. That season has a super strong PV all season and no hint of blocking.

This season reminds me of 2001-2002, so far.....kind of a blocky December that just didn't produce, and then the PAC jet just dominated. Nothing looked awful on paper, and long range guidance kept advertising change, and we waited all season long.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again, I don't think that we rat....but if we do, there is one in particular that this one reminds me of.

Any guesses?

Name that rat.....

I’m at 3.8” on the season…I mean something has got to give at some point. I mean it’s incredibly tough to finish in single digits here. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This plot is not dissimilar to the PNA

That's a great analog. It also featured one of Buffalos largest LES events in its history around the same dates as last month. Very similar to this year. Dec 20-25th Buffalo received 82" of snow and than the rest of winter sucked. This past December was almost identical with the Christmas Blizzard. 

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Siberia. Seriously. Biggest cold in 20 years there.

Lol, good For them . I was wondering if there were more negative anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere bc the northern side has  more positive then negative . This may not be abnormal as I never look at this stuff, just more an observation . 

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's a great analog. It also featured one of Buffalos largest LES events in its history around the same dates as last month. Very similar to this year. Dec 20-25th Buffalo received 82" of snow and than the rest of winter sucked. This past December was almost identical with the Christmas Blizzard. 

Yea, a lot of the crap milder winters end up good for you because the lakes remain relatively warm and unfrozen later...whenever we do get a rouge cold shot...BANG.

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