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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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16 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you being sarcastic, or are you serious? Lol. 

I wasn't being sarcastic.  However, there's questions as to whether the changes would necessarily play nice for winter enthusiasts (20th and thereafter). 

In short, +PNA likely to return.  But if the +PNA is only moderately amplified and/or sets into the hemisphere through a warm (relative to season) Canada and a pinched off high Arctic.

Longer ... Not just relying upon the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFs way out there from D10 onward, either.  The changes are in the systemic machinery at planetary scales ...

We are all aware the recent MJO monitoring and forecasting has a phase 8-1-2 presentation/migration.  Something is in constructive interference - or modeled to be so - in order for that to take place, given to the erstwhile La Nina. CPC's weekly publication released yesterday, corroborates that idea

"• Some changes in the observed wind patterns in both the lower and upper atmosphere portend a potential weakening of the long-lived La Nina."

The MJO is not driving the pattern ...but the models predicting its current behavior, combined with these observations in real time, suggests/implicates a paradigm shift.  The La Nina isn't going away on a dime..no.  But, the pressure and wind patterns tend to lead the SST distribution, so the decoupling we've been seeing over the last ..since the week of Christmas, really, may signal the beginning of the end.  That's quite plausibly beginning to take place.  The constructive interference already beginning ...lends to the +PNA. 

The ensemble means all suggest this ... pretty coherently picking a date, too. Right around the 20th. In fact, the D9/10 of the operational models are in primitive detection as of last night..

 

 

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...I have mentally checked out of winter mode, and put my mind at ease.  I feel that I am in a calmer place, and am one with nature and the elements that have been given to me...gifted so to speak.  To accept loss is the first part of getting past the sadness, anger, and obstacles that prevent one from living a joyful, bountiful existence.  

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...I have mentally checked out of winter mode, and put my mind at ease.  I feel that I am in a calmer place, and am one with nature and the elements that have been given to me...gifted so to speak.  To accept loss is the first part of getting past the sadness, anger, and obstacles that prevent one from living a joyful, bountiful existence.  

That’s deep…


.
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10 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

...I have mentally checked out of winter mode, and put my mind at ease.  I feel that I am in a calmer place, and am one with nature and the elements that have been given to me...gifted so to speak.  To accept loss is the first part of getting past the sadness, anger, and obstacles that prevent one from living a joyful, bountiful existence.  

Wow Garth.  
Garth the philosopher…hmmm has a nice ring to it. 

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9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

...I have mentally checked out of winter mode, and put my mind at ease.  I feel that I am in a calmer place, and am one with nature and the elements that have been given to me...gifted so to speak.  To accept loss is the first part of getting past the sadness, anger, and obstacles that prevent one from living a joyful, bountiful existence.  

I sort of have as well for the moment. Fortunately I have other hobbies, and a business to run so it's easy for me to step away for a while. I certainly don't think winter is done though... we'll see

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Just now, UnitedWx said:

I sort of have as well for the moment. Fortunately I have other hobbies, and a business to run so it's easy for me to step away for a while. I certainly don't think winter is done though... we'll see

How’d the ensembles look? Still good? Or are they backing off as they have since early December? 

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13 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

...I have mentally checked out of winter mode, and put my mind at ease.  I feel that I am in a calmer place, and am one with nature and the elements that have been given to me...gifted so to speak.  To accept loss is the first part of getting past the sadness, anger, and obstacles that prevent one from living a joyful, bountiful existence.  

Edibles?

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15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How’d the ensembles look? Still good? Or are they backing off as they have since early December? 

Well since you asked, pretty good. EPS imo looks better, but it’s all you can ask at this point. I don’t see things pushed back for the time being either. 

Caveats:

1) Any sensible impacts probably will be post 1-20 and give yourself a few days cushion knowing how things can be slow to change. 


2) EPS is the better, but not quite a +PNA. Basically a west coast ridge. 


3) GEFS have a similar ridge location, but some troughing over desert SW. It’s not exactly a -PNA, but would be more of a Ptype risk. Perhaps more SWFE? 

Net/net….a hell of a lot better than what we have, but gonna need a week to see if this is true or not, and it may not be exactly perfect. We still have the Nina DNA that may want to shift things west. Fingers crossed.

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12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How’d the ensembles look? Still good? Or are they backing off as they have since early December? 

I haven't today. I took a peak yesterday after Tips comment and they didn't look bad, but I've really never been a fan of looking that far forward anyway. Gut feeling is we do OK in February, but that's not really based on scientific data LOL

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One thing that's remarkable about this pattern is that there's no real cold air anywhere in the lower 48. I'm heading out to southwestern Montana later this week for some skiing, and with a warm east coast I'd typically expect to see wintry conditions out there - but they'll be in the upper 30s and 40s for highs even at elevation. Fortunately they banked a decent amount of snow in November and December, and don't tend to get Grinchy storms that wash everything away.

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