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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

I sure as fuck don't know what that means...I can't be alone here....

TWC music from '93-94 winter. Basically its code for "the pattern looks like a cold gradient pattern" where we are on the cold side. Week 3 looks more classic big ridge out west but week 4 starts going toward more typical La Nina look but it's cold at least...not a torch February look. Everything retros a bit in week 5/6 but still seasonable around here so it would be a decent pattern....though we're getitng into utter clown range at that point.

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6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

 

He also said this right after that:

"Wasn't that long ago many were wishcasting this warmth away because the MJO was going to be in phase 8 during early-mid Jan. There isn't a significant signal for Eastern US cold w/ phase 8 MJO, but there's a good/significant chance for warmth if the MJO reaches phase 4-6 in Feb"
 
One of the mets here was pushing that phase 8 last week.
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So far, this month is challenging 2007 for warmest January - 11.4 AN thru today compared to 13.0 AN in '07.  That year things turned cold on 1/14; from that date thru Feb 24 (6 weeks) only one day got above freezing, and that only 33°.  Jan 14 thru Mar 9, 55 days, ran 9.1 BN and there was still another 46" snow to come.  Haven't seen anything like that progged for this winter.

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

18z gfs is more like the likely reality regarding the end of week system . Stronger primary via phase and weaker and East follow up nothingness 

Makes sense.

But right now? Flip a coin. That's what such a high level of run-to-run inconsistency tells me. GEFS/EPS say there's a non-negligible chance of something more. It's also further out in time - day 5.

Probably can't toss this aspect until we see consistent runs like that on Thurs.

This has been a season of tucked secondaries. Albeit crap ones. I'm on board for both these attributes. 

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