CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Intrigued Move on. Go arrest someone. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Move on. Go arrest someone. I'm all in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Seems like we'll want that whole trough orientation to be shifted a bit east for getting much snow out of it where we are....maybe far western areas don't need too much movement. It would be fitting this winter to get a legit wave bombing on the front, only for the front to be stalled too far west and we get another round of heavy rain while it snows in NY State. I know the run isn't done yet, but 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The GEFS have been dragging its heels, but sort of match more with EPS. That's all I meant. We shall see, You would think this can't continue the whole season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I'm all in To making arrest? I hope so if deserved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wipe it clean baby. I desperately need a 200mb windchart of the Pacific from @brooklynwx99explaining why this time will be different ...maybe drop a "mountain torque" bomb no less than 3 & no more than 6 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Well, based on that euro set up ..NYC maybe closer to most in sne given it’s a longitudinal system but my money is on the whole idea / second system weakening and shifting East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know the run isn't done yet, but Don't do it..... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I desperately need 200mb windchart of the Pacific from @brooklynwx99explaining why this time will be different ...maybe drop a "mountain torque" no less than 3 & not more than 6 times. It's a pretty nice pattern being depicted....there will be some of us forced to jump back on the bandwagon by the weekend if it keeps showing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well, based on that euro set up ..NYC maybe closer to most in sne given it’s a longitudinal system but my money is on the whole idea / second system weakening and shifting East I'm sure it will be a great set up for Methuen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Don't do it..... I am 100% out. I'm just marveling at how prescient Will is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's a pretty nice pattern being depicted....there will be some of us forced to jump back on the bandwagon by the weekend if it keeps showing that. I have to be sarcastic because otherwise I'd just cry, but I'm still in on this winter. Its not a rat IMO. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 38 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Honorable mention: -NAO Honorable mention: Modoki. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I am 100% out. I'm just marveling at how prescient Will is. Oh that, LOL. That's about right. Rain for Phil in Randolph NH, but snow for the DE beach house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, Hoth said: Honorable mention: Modoki. Nothing to do with this season....it delivered 2014...missed once since. That is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I desperately need 200mb windchart of the Pacific from @brooklynwx99explaining why this time will be different ...maybe drop a "mountain torque" bomb no less than 3 & no more than 6 times. the reason for the mess in the Pacific is from mountain torque too. the +EAMT caused the jet extension and super -EPO, but it was too much of a good thing, so to speak we'll see the jet retract due the -EAMT already taking place... this should take a week to 10 days after it occurs, which brings us around the 17-20th where the ensembles are flipping the look out west. this retrogression makes sense too. we aren't in a super Nino where these jet extensions have tropical support trust me, this shit is frustrating, but all you can do it wait and try and make a good call based on what you have, and it looks like another torch from the 15-22nd or so, then a flip to a possibly legit cold pattern. I don't think it's a head fake 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, Hoth said: Honorable mention: Modoki. SSW events deserve a space . Seems Half The time it’s nothing , And the other times it sends the Polar Vortex to Eurasia. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nothing to do with this season....it delivered 2014...missed once since. That is real. It missed big time the last go around. I was pumped for that season and it was a total dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know the run isn't done yet, but Analogue? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have to be sarcastic because otherwise I'd just cry, but I'm still in on this winter. Its not a rat IMO. The final week of January into early February probably has to be our Waterloo moment if it's going to happen. Anything after that would likely be too late. If we can rack up 2 or 3 decent storms in that period, then winter is at least salvageable to a certain extent. Can't fully make up for losing half the winter....well, unless we maybe go 2015 or 1956, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Lock it in now wave two will be a 50 mile wide 6-12” rotting band from Brooklyn to MJO up to Montreal. While everyone in New England rains and by Jan 21 MJO and Brooklyn will have to file a restraining order against Ray. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Honorable mention: Modoki. Agree! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the reason for the mess in the Pacific is from mountain torque too. the +EAMT caused the jet extension and super -EPO, but it was too much of a good thing, so to speak we'll see the jet retract due the -EAMT already taking place... this should take a week to 10 days after it occurs, which brings us around the 17-20th where the ensembles are flipping the look out west. this retrogression makes sense too. we aren't in a super Nino where these jet extensions have tropical support trust me, this shit is frustrating, but all you can do it wait and try and make a good call based on what you have, and it looks like another torch from the 15-22nd or so, then a flip to a possibly legit cold pattern. I don't think it's a head fake I know, I'm just bustn'...I agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Analogue? If only we had an arctic airmass on the cold side of the boundary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The final week of January into early February probably has to be our Waterloo moment if it's going to happen. Anything after that would likely be too late. If we can rack up 2 or 3 decent storms in that period, then winter is at least salvageable to a certain extent. Can't fully make up for losing half the winter....well, unless we maybe go 2015 or 1956, lol. Don't sell the 1956 analog short...it was high on my list. I may have just messed the timing up, which is easy to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Lock it in now wave two will be a 50 mile wide 6-12” rotting band from Brooklyn to MJO up to Montreal. While everyone in New England rains and by Jan 21 MJO and Brooklyn will have to file a restraining order against Ray. Something is going to pop...I have 3.5" on the season with an average of like 63" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 We probably will get a HECS near the end of the month bc my son comes like the 29th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If only we had an arctic airmass on the cold side of the boundary. If only. Instead, the lime green parakeets in @Hoth’s backyard are doing backstrokes in mud puddles and sunbathing in the grass. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well, based on that euro set up ..NYC maybe closer to most in sne given it’s a longitudinal system but my money is on the whole idea / second system weakening and shifting East A glorified fropa. West cashing in on this makes sense given the way the BL floods with marine air in the east, out to the CT river, and NNE into New Brunswick Canada. Eastern Upstate NY best spot currently, Vt, Berks right behind. And ironically that ocean influenced Surface WAA that skunks us is what largely lays the ground for secondary cyclogensis, with UL height falls right behind it. We don't have a cold press, or surface high anywhere in the northeast by the time this sets up, so I don't see why the SLP can't Bee-Line it to Caribou. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 So the follow-up system now appears to be real. But without a decent high, even western NE will have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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