January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

One of the fraud 5's

That's where we are at this year, though....you have the best mets in the region scrounging for a fruadulent anafrontal flurry. Its pathetic and immensely disheartening. And the saddest part is that you know damn well a -12SD NAO block is coming on about April 12th.

[RDRY]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I think most understand that the climate is changing and in the warmer direction. The argument develops between those who believe the warming that we are seeing is completely normal and that humans have had no influence to the warming trend and those who believe humans have acted as a catalyst, reducing the overall time it takes to get to endpoint. Speeding the process up, could prevent the planet and species living on it from naturally adapting to the changing climate. The rate we are burning fossil fuels is accelerating our warming, were just don't know how it will affect our planets health or even humans ability to adapt in the short term. Famine, floods, and disease are all concerns a planet of 8 billion plus should have...it is better to be prepared or even try to slow things down a bit than to close the shades and hide until it smacks us in the face

Unfortunately, our climate policy is comically contradictory. Severe fossil fuel restrictions in the western hemisphere that have already crippled economies like Germany, with zero restrictions for major polluters like China and India. Leading to a net worsening of emissions.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Is that a tropical system barreling toward North Carolina at 210 hours on the GFS? 

Why not?  That would fit the tenor of the season

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Why not?  That would fit the tenor of the season

No, it wouldn't...that would be modestly compelling.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

But hey, congrats DC!

I have noticed this season, when ever we get "good" look, it lasts 1, maybe 2 model cycles. Except for when the GFS got stubborn and eventually caved anyway. This season's models would probably look pretty good if they were run every 24 hours, not every 6 or even 12 hours. The only thing we end up seeing is false hope regardless of what the OP or even the ensembles say. For whatever reason, this season we can't trend a colder or snowy look. Hopefully that changes, but persistence as many have said is a......

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah that second sort of delayed/quasi Miller B idea’s intriguing looking in the 12 Z GGEM. Definitely trended

I mean it’s not quite there yet … actually it is there for the Berkshire, so it’s already making a move.

12z GFS now with an 18Z Saturday burst of snow NW zones … have to see how this evolves during the week

[CoastalWx]

I didn't see anybody locking that in or anything, just a comment on what guidance showed. I think we all understand it's a low chance. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's where we are at this year, though....you have the best mets in the region scrounging for a fruadulent anafrontal flurry. Its pathetic and immensely disheartening. And the saddest part is that you know damn well a -12SD NAO block is coming on about April 12th.

Fenway home opener March 30 should be enjoyable

[George001]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you notice a pattern with respect to your posts? Its blizzard this, blizzard that....and if it isn't a blizzard, then its the global warming goblin coming to devour us all. Do me a favor and find a really quiet virtual corner and sit there for about 6.....10 months before your next post.

Its not just that we aren’t getting blizzards. If it were normal temp with a storm track to the west or hell even somewhat above normal with somewhat below normal to the west, I would not be blaming climate change. The issue is how it’s much easier to get warmth than it is to get cold now. Favorable pattern? -2. Bad pattern? +10.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it wouldn't...that would be modestly compelling.

If it misses SNE it would fit

[wx2fish]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's where we are at this year, though....you have the best mets in the region scrounging for a fruadulent anafrontal flurry. Its pathetic and immensely disheartening. And the saddest part is that you know damn well a -12SD NAO block is coming on about April 12th.

Been joking with Scott about that. After this inferno it has the feel of a blocking episode ruining the spring. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I didn't see anybody locking that in or anything, just a comment on what guidance showed. I think we all understand it's a low chance. 

I wasn't shitting on you guys at all. It is what it is....

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

Unfortunately, our climate policy is comically contradictory. Severe fossil fuel restrictions in the western hemisphere that have already crippled economies like Germany, with zero restrictions for major polluters like China and India. Leading to a net worsening of emissions.

Knee jerk reactions almost never work out.. if we would have slowly waned our dependence on fossil fuels in an economical/reasonable way things could be different. But we always want to just pull the plug and hope for the best outcome regardless of what the consequences are. I try to focus on what is better for my children's future and even their children's future. My time left won't be that effected, but theirs will.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Its not just that we aren’t getting blizzards. If it were normal temp with a storm track to the west or hell even somewhat above normal with somewhat below normal to the west, I would not be blaming climate change. The issue is how it’s much easier to get warmth than it is to get cold now. Favorable pattern? -2. Bad pattern? +10.

Yes, you are right about that. I just think people get carried away with attribution and sensationalize. That is a pretty fair description, though. I honestly don't think we would have much more snow this season if it were 60 years ago....maybe one event it would have made a difference. But a very active PAC jet has and always will blow big ones....they are just warmer big ones now.

[ariof]

That retrograding low on the GFS spinning back from BDA towards the outer banks is just icing on the cake (and maybe a bit of icing in NNE).

[ineedsnow]

dual storms in January?

[Modfan2]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I didn't see anybody locking that in or anything, just a comment on what guidance showed. I think we all understand it's a low chance. 

While in no means a lock, this morning’s run and this are trending better than we were yesterday. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

While in no means a lock, this morning’s run and this are trending better than we were yesterday. 

I still see it as complete dog shit. LOL. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, George001 said:

Its not just that we aren’t getting blizzards. If it were normal temp with a storm track to the west or hell even somewhat above normal with somewhat below normal to the west, I would not be blaming climate change. The issue is how it’s much easier to get warmth than it is to get cold now. Favorable pattern? -2. Bad pattern? +10.

But we are getting blizzards George.…maybe not this year…but we’ve gotten quite a few of them the last 20 yrs. Blizzards aren’t every day storm occurrences, that’s one of the ways that you’re inaccurate.

We can all tell that you’re young and very impressionable, and you believe everything you read and hear. You’ll learn as you get older…lots of shit just isn’t true, or ain’t true to the degree that they want you to believe it is.  Slow your roll at both ends of the spectrum and you’ll be much better off. Take that advice and the other advice and learn from it. 
 

Now let’s stop talking about fantasy blizzards and CC and get back to what really matters which is the current weather for the next week. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Oh how I love the mayhem!!! Lol

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you notice a pattern with respect to your posts? Its blizzard this, blizzard that....and if it isn't a blizzard, then its the global warming goblin coming to devour us all. Do me a favor and find a really quiet virtual corner and sit there for about 6.....10 months before your next post.

No… He doesn’t. And a couple of times albeit rare, where he showed a (maybe) modicum of awareness to the notion, he’s then introduced us to a new layer: impenetrable stubbornness.  Replying phrases to the affect of ‘I’m going to stick by my guns … it’s not going to change my opinion’

Which isn’t just stubborn he also misses the point, evidenced when he responds like that - not getting the connection between that posting tact and subsequently not being considered a value in discussion because of that delivery.

Which isn’t just a styling problem… He’s also wrong - call a spade a spade - In the first place because global warming is not eating us alive and every CU cloud bubbling up on a chart isn’t a blizzard. 

I’m being a little harsh admittedly… But sometimes you have to put a dash of salt because bitterness unfortunately carries the truth the best way.  He has said things in the past that seemed more lucid… But then I saw yet another layer lol. When somebody responds to the lucid post with something encouraging to move a conversation along, he then replies with the word blizzard. Hahaha … really excitedly too

[RDRY]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Knee jerk reactions almost never work out.. if we would have slowly waned our dependence on fossil fuels in an economical/reasonable way things could be different. But we always want to just pull the plug and hope for the best outcome regardless of what the consequences are. I try to focus on what is better for my children's future and even their children's future. My time left won't be that effected, but theirs will.

I see ulterior motives for this policy, which seems bluntly obvious with the anti-nuclear position.

What gets conveniently ignored by our media is the dramatic curbing of emissions in the U.S. since around 2007 from natural gas exploration (fracking). That's a success story that should be highlighted, but doesn't fit the alarmist narrative.

[brooklynwx99]

I'm also not really concerned with the GFS showing crap like that quasi-hurricane later in the run since it has been absolutely awful since its "upgrade"

the ECMWF has been schooling it consistently at Day 5. old habits die hard lmao

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I still see it as complete dog shit. LOL. 

.  This is just a lil less dog shit, compared to total dog diarrhea.  
 

But this is somewhat of a curiosity all of a sudden…let’s see what the crazy Euro shows? 

[radarman]

That GFS run is pure comedy.  I mean, eff it.  Let's take the snowstakes right down to zero.  Let's long duration east flow right off the water.  Get it all out.  We need this catharsis.

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I think most understand that the climate is changing and in the warmer direction. The argument develops between those who believe the warming that we are seeing is completely normal and that humans have had no influence to the warming trend and those who believe humans have acted as a catalyst, reducing the overall time it takes to get to endpoint. Speeding the process up, could prevent the planet and species living on it from naturally adapting to the changing climate. The rate we are burning fossil fuels is accelerating our warming, were just don't know how it will affect our planets health or even humans ability to adapt in the short term. Famine, floods, and disease are all concerns a planet of 8 billion plus should have...it is better to be prepared or even try to slow things down a bit than to close the shades and hide until it smacks us in the face

A large majority of the recent warming is man-made. Some of the warming earlier in the period (like say, late 1800s through 1940s or so) was largely natural. We came out of a very cold period (aka “The Little Ice Age”) that had established itself in the 1700-1900 time period (even going back to about 1300, but the pronounced cold was more centered in the 1700-1900 time period). 
 

I don’t think it does the science or advocacy for reducing fossil fuels much good to hyperbolize and exaggerate claims or focus headlines on tail-end of distribution risks…they are important and should be noted, but we don’t want to start reducing credibility by claiming the RCP 8.5 scenarios as remotely likely. That’s how you undermine the entire issue of CC. But this last paragraph is really out of scope even on the wx side…it’s getting more into a political discussion on the best strategy for public awareness and communicating the science. 

[Hazey]

Back to weather chat. Is that 50's to near 60 on the GFS for the 19-20th? That will  probably be laser accurate.

[jbenedet]

This is a pretty effin' hilarious H5 look, when most are hungry for snow. Late October/early November vibes.

I know I know it's one run of the op at hr180. But it isn't exactly la-la land "clown range" time frame either at day 7/8.

Maybe we look for records in the other direction?

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RDRY said:

I see ulterior motives for this policy, which seems bluntly obvious with the anti-nuclear position.

What gets conveniently ignored by our media is the dramatic curbing of emissions in the U.S. since around 2007 from natural gas exploration (fracking). That's a success story that should be highlighted, but doesn't fit the alarmist narrative.

Great point, but wrong thread. Let’s get back to current weather. 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, radarman said:

That GFS run is pure comedy.  I mean, eff it.  Let's take the snowstakes right down to zero.  Let's long duration east flow right off the water.  Get it all out.  We need this catharsis.

Ha this is wild.