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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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24 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Some of the EPS showed backside change from Poconos up through W CT and Mass up into NNE, still think this is plausible?

Well … it’s not IMpossible. :D

The models don’t really put out solutions that are impossible… They may be physically less likely – but that’s up to the forecaster to accept or deny what they’re looking at etc. etc.

This is kind of a tricky situation. It’s rather unique - seems more and more systems as of late have seldom observed aspects.  But in this case we have a transient opportunity for Western Ridge to really feedback on amplify an eastern trough - and it’s a very good looking evolution at mid and upper levels.

However, the bottom of the troposphere is just too warm everywhere in lateral dimensions. Very weak baroclinic gradients.   And what the models are doing is resolving that by not providing any resistance to sfc cyclone response, very early in the wholesale evolution.

That’s why-for the early low up in Ohio like that, and then weakens shearing out through St. Lawrence - it’s because there really isn’t very much support aloft (mechanically) for the low to exist up there - warm air is killing us this season so far to be blunt. But that’s why that behavior is doing that.

Then, model still have to accommodate or rather account for all the mechanics swinging around the bottom of the trough where - if it were colder out ahead of this thing that early would’ve waited because the boundary layer would resist cyclostrophic circulation. It’s called boundary layer resistance….  

So the total result … a split with some low development shearing out early and then the wave developing a stride the mid Atlantic may actually take place as the mechanics come around.  It likely will.  No idea from this range “weather” will be bulge back west enough to do with some of these models that are suggesting that  

 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s take the climate BS, and put it where it belongs in the proper thread. CC is not causing our poor pattern. You all can believe whatever you want..that’s fine and good.  I don’t come here to debate any of that. I come to see what the weather is or might be over the next week or so. Any farther out is skeptical at best. 
 

 

Eh i don’t think we should ignore the effect of climate change on our weather patterns. Yes, it’s not as simple as “100 years ago this would have been an epic pattern but it sucks now due to climate change”, but when the entire planet is warming like it is that’s going to have a domino effect. Maybe the same physical drivers that lead to x longwave pattern 50 years ago would lead to y longwave pattern now. Or maybe the same longwave pattern 50 years ago would lead to different results now. 

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19 minutes ago, George001 said:

Eh i don’t think we should ignore the effect of climate change on our weather patterns. Yes, it’s not as simple as “100 years ago this would have been an epic pattern but it sucks now due to climate change”, but when the entire planet is warming like it is that’s going to have a domino effect. Maybe the same physical drivers that lead to x longwave pattern 50 years ago would lead to y longwave pattern now. Or maybe the same longwave pattern 50 years ago would lead to different results now. 

Climate change is really killing winter in the west, huh?

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

No one cause of everything.  Lots o factors causing this particular winter patter.  CC probably not primary but an impact because any factor has at least a little impact.

I agree totally. I don't deny CC, just how much of it is us vs. the Bi**h called mother nature OK now back to can the Euro keep dangling carrots for some for the weekend :lol:

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Let’s take the climate BS, and put it where it belongs in the proper thread. CC is not causing our poor pattern. You all can believe whatever you want..that’s fine and good.  I don’t come here to debate any of that. I come to see what the weather is or might be over the next week or so. Any farther out is skeptical at best. 
 
 

We need snow, bro. Otherwise every torch and miss is going to be blamed on climate change.


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I think this is a good graph for people to see....this is Boston temperatures for winter....you can see both CC and mother nature on this graph....you can see we've warmed over the past 100+ years but even using the 5 year running average (black line), you can clearly see how it's not a smooth line up....there's torch periods and cold periods.....the torch periods have gotten warmer and you can see how the cold periods have also gotten warmer....they don't get as cold as they used to. Some of the pre-1937 stuff is going to be not apples to apples since Logan airport only took obs starting in 1937....prior to that it was not right on the water so you had much colder minimums.

 

image.png.6594549f1e7f09cd4769a6b375fafa79.png

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice anal snow for NNE on the GFS.

That even gets part of SNE too. Wonder if we can get that to form a little faster and track over the Cape or something. But that would require a trend actually going right this winter....

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That even gets part of SNE too. Wonder if we can get that to form a little faster and track over the Cape or something. But that would require a trend actually going right this winter....

Euro stuff had some signs of it too. But yeah, not only are those tenuous, but that means something needs to go right. :lol: 

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16 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I agree totally. I don't deny CC, just how much of it is us vs. the Bi**h called mother nature OK now back to can the Euro keep dangling carrots for some for the weekend :lol:

Yea, a raging PAC jet would have killed winter in 1960, but it probably wouldn't be the warmest January on record back then.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That even gets part of SNE too. Wonder if we can get that to form a little faster and track over the Cape or something. But that would require a trend actually going right this winter....

Good luck snagging victory from the jaws of a fraud member 5, this season.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That even gets part of SNE too. Wonder if we can get that to form a little faster and track over the Cape or something. But that would require a trend actually going right this winter....

CMC is a lot more favorable with the trailing energy... more amplified and separated from the "initial" wave

gem_z500_vort_us_fh84_trend.thumb.gif.213be2df864acd63765631ebb5cdb493.gif

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think this is a good graph for people to see....this is Boston temperatures for winter....you can see both CC and mother nature on this graph....you can see we've warmed over the past 100+ years but even using the 5 year running average (black line), you can clearly see how it's not a smooth line up....there's torch periods and cold periods.....the torch periods have gotten warmer and you can see how the cold periods have also gotten warmer....they don't get as cold as they used to. Some of the pre-1937 stuff is going to be not apples to apples since Logan airport only took obs starting in 1937....prior to that it was not right on the water so you had much colder minimums.

 

image.png.6594549f1e7f09cd4769a6b375fafa79.png

I think most understand that the climate is changing and in the warmer direction. The argument develops between those who believe the warming that we are seeing is completely normal and that humans have had no influence to the warming trend and those who believe humans have acted as a catalyst, reducing the overall time it takes to get to endpoint. Speeding the process up, could prevent the planet and species living on it from naturally adapting to the changing climate. The rate we are burning fossil fuels is accelerating our warming, were just don't know how it will affect our planets health or even humans ability to adapt in the short term. Famine, floods, and disease are all concerns a planet of 8 billion plus should have...it is better to be prepared or even try to slow things down a bit than to close the shades and hide until it smacks us in the face

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I hate these secondary frontal wave looks - the BL takes a lot more time to cool than the snow maps portray. 37/31 and mod snow doesn't pile up - and temps are warmest when the precip rates are best. And then you have warm, wet ground preceding it. It takes a lot to go right for it deliver something more than the nuisance variety. 

Vermont and the NH whites may able to cash in, especially with some orographic assist. Elsewhere don't like this look at all. But we'll watch...

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5 minutes ago, George001 said:

The west isn’t as cold as we are warm. They are below average, we are record warm. Isn’t the NH snowcover record low right now too?

Do you notice a pattern with respect to your posts? Its blizzard this, blizzard that....and if it isn't a blizzard, then its the global warming goblin coming to devour us all. Do me a favor and find a really quiet virtual corner and sit there for about 6.....10 months before your next post.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I hate these secondary frontal wave looks - the BL takes a lot more time to cool than the snow maps portray. 37/31 and mod snow doesn't pile up - and temps are warmest when the precip rates are best. And then you have warm, wet ground preceding it. It takes a lot to go right for it deliver something more than the nuisance variety. 

Vermont and the NH whites may able to cash in, especially with some orographic assist. Elsewhere don't like this look at all. But we'll watch...

One of the fraud 5's

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