January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

Both sides are wrong ... And both sides are right ... Neither is going to acknowledge that in either direction, so the engagement is likely futile.  

 

This California "correction" is not going to "balance" the last decades of deficits. They'll flood and have land slides, and big snows in the Sierra, ..all that. But the fact will remain ...

((30+ years average) + (this season's contribution) ) /2   will still = negative

 

California's epic season is not climate driven - climate does not drive storms.  It seems there is a decay in the general zeitgeist in understanding this. Climate is a numerical result of means and averages over extended periods.  The weather creates the climate - not the other way around.   That was better understood - or becoming that way ... - at the water cooler and bus stops of Americana 10 or 15 years ago, but it's slipping - it seems.  Yahoo-ism is taking back over.  Promoted no doubt by irresponsible reporting by mass-media, as well as the uncontrollable content of social media's ginormous impact on the modalities of Humanity - at this dangerous point in human evolution ( 'nother hell altogether...).  People are becoming knee jerk "reactionary attribution specialists" wrt to this climate stuff.  This California type of season happened in 1982 ...years before this hockey-stick acceleration in the global climate had begun... And there are geologic evidences if not just annulled facts of river events going back centuries, too.  

There are two climate concerns ...overlapping. 

One, the strike on the west coast is part of the many varied Earth system normalcy. 

The other, the atmosphere on Earth is warming ...which is measured fact of truth, against said normalcy. That cannot be debated.  You cannot simultaneously observe a rising thermometer, that corroborates with physical sensation, and claim the temperature is not rising.  To attempt to do so is fantasy.

 

 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Respect the bad times so you can appreciate the good. 

 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

When your served shiat and have no other choice , yes that is the best attitude 

Yum

[snowman19]

an 01-02 style winter will do that...

01-02 was caused by a massive, record breaking high solar flux from September to April. The incoming UV was off the charts. It shrunk and contracted the SPV and warmed the mid-latitudes which caused non stop zonal and semi-zonal flow the entire winter. The westerlies were screaming

[ORH_wxman]

We're in a rough stretch, but they happen. CC makes them worse than otherwise, but people need to also not fall into being climate weenies too and start assuming these winters will become normal...that's not really any better than assuming they are not affected by CC at all. They are both extraordinary claims that require evidence.

Most people would probably be surprised that the entire winter warming trend for us since 1990 is due to post-2015 winters. No surprise when you'd seen the hemispheric pattern since 2015.

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

17 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Very much so. Grass is greening and lakes wide open. Spring/summer might be rough. Low water tables, extreme fire index, Water rationing, ticks to the extreme. Good times abound. 

Thanks for the reply.

[bwt3650]

We're in a rough stretch, but they happen. CC makes them worse than otherwise, but people need to also not fall into being climate weenies too and start assuming these winters will become normal...that's not really any better than assuming they are not affected by CC at all. They are both extraordinary claims that require evidence.
Most people would probably be surprised that the entire winter warming trend for us since 1990 is due to post-2015 winters. No surprise when you'd seen the hemispheric pattern since 2015.
 
 

Extreme, dramatic, generalized positions on climate change drive extreme viewpoints. Weather is not climate. Just my opinion.


.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Extreme, dramatic, generalized positions on climate change drive extreme viewpoints. Weather is not climate. Just my opinion.


.

That's not an opinion.  It's the truth.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

January for the ages

if I was the owner of a ski resort or A major part of my income was from luxury ski rentals I would be drinking more . The upcoming pattern looks to have a large gradient just north of NH/VT border w Canada . Maybe things can tickle nicer and temps can stay favorable to make snow 

[mahk_webstah]

55 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Some said the same thing after 2011/12. Believe it, yes.. believe it's what's causing our current situation, no

No one cause of everything.  Lots o factors causing this particular winter patter.  CC probably not primary but an impact because any factor has at least a little impact.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

AGW is real.  Our climate is warming faster due to human influence.  

The funny thing is that isn’t even debatable, the argument as you’ve said is about specific causation of specific events.

[Chris12WX]

Well at least the pattern is active.

[WinterWolf]

38 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Very much so. Grass is greening and lakes wide open. Spring/summer might be rough. Low water tables, extreme fire index, Water rationing, ticks to the extreme. Good times abound. 

Stay safe. 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That's not an opinion.  It's the truth.

Let’s take the climate BS, and put it where it belongs in the proper thread. CC is not causing our poor pattern. You all can believe whatever you want..that’s fine and good.  I don’t come here to debate any of that. I come to see what the weather is or might be over the next week or so. Any farther out is skeptical at best. 
 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Getting back to our weather...interesting energy on the backside at 06z, vort over southern Missou at 90hrs wasn't evident on the 0z:

[Spanks45]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s take the climate BS, and put it where it belongs in the proper thread. CC is not causing our poor pattern. You all can believe whatever you want..that’s fine and good.  I don’t come here to debate any of that. I come to see what the weather is or might be over the next week or so. Any farther out is skeptical at best. 
 

 

Next hope is for a follow up wave, but we know how those always work out...we just need something to go right, a bloop single reference would work here.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s take the climate BS, and put it where it belongs in the proper thread. CC is not causing our poor pattern. You all can believe whatever you want..that’s fine and good.  I don’t come here to debate any of that. I come to see what the weather is or might be over the next week or so. Any farther out is skeptical at best. 
 

 

CC may not directly cause a bad pattern, but it will make a bad pattern warmer than it was decades ago (i.e. "enhance" a warm pattern so to speak)....so you'll get some of those days where it spikes 65F in January and 70F in February when it was almost impossible to do that back in the day. Certainly more frequent now anyway.

 

Anyways, no use in beating the dead horse here. We're not going to turn into a DCA climate in winter....that's not credible. But we're not going to have consistently cold winters like the '60s/70s either. We can still get obscene cold as 2015 taught us (or late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018), but the frequency is less.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to be a dick but… the idea of this wave event splitting into two has been on the charts in more or less suggestion for the past week, actually. It’s not so new. I suspect we’re just getting around to noticing it.

I kind of miss lead people myself because I thought the the lead wave was really a warm advection burst or thrust pushing up through New England. But now that some time’s gone by the models caught back up with that thinking it looks more likely that it’s just lack of cold air in the antecedent setting is causing the storm to mature a cyclone prematurely relative to the trough amplitude. That shears from Ohio through the St. Lawrence seaway.

But the actual better trough amplitude happens later and that’s what the GGEM and EURO are picking up on. An idea that the 06ZGFS actually hinted a little bit towards doing also with flashing over the Greens with a late wave development

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay so there’s convincing suggestion for a significant pattern change after the 15th .. 20th

Details later ..,

[Lava Rock]

59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're in a rough stretch, but they happen. CC makes them worse than otherwise, but people need to also not fall into being climate weenies too and start assuming these winters will become normal...that's not really any better than assuming they are not affected by CC at all. They are both extraordinary claims that require evidence.

Most people would probably be surprised that the entire winter warming trend for us since 1990 is due to post-2015 winters. No surprise when you'd seen the hemispheric pattern since 2015.

 

 

Please call every media outlet and tell them this. I don't need to be reminded every single day about CC and global warming. The daily barrage of why I must buy an e-vehicle, reduce my carbon footprint, accept that most/all things must go green for the greater good is tiring. Seriously, the local channels angle at least one story a night about this and in many cases "stretch" the story that almost has nothing to do about CC into one that does.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

57 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

When your served shiat and have no other choice , yes that is the best attitude 

There’s nothing else we can do but reframe our thoughts. Some of the youngins who have not gone through bad winters, especially, could use a little humble pie. 

[Modfan2]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be a dick but… the idea of this wave event splitting into two has been on the charts in more or less suggestion for the past week, actually. It’s not so new. I suspect we’re just getting around to noticing it.

I kind of miss lead people myself because I thought the the lead wave was really a warm advection burst or thrust pushing up through New England. But now that it some time’s gone by the models caught back up with that thinking it looks more likely that it’s just lack of cold air in the antecedent setting is causing the storm to mature a cyclone prematurely relative to the trough amplitude. That shears from Ohio through the St. Lawrence seaway.

But the actual better trough amplitude happens later and that’s what the GGEM and EURO are picking up on. An idea that the 06ZGFS actually hinted a little bit towards doing also with flashing over the Greens with a late wave development

Some of the EPS showed backside change from Poconos up through W CT and Mass up into NNE, still think this is plausible?

[Modfan2]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There’s nothing else we can do but reframe our thoughts. Some of the youngins who have not gone through bad winters, especially, could use a little humble pie. 

Sort of like a bad Patriots season, young people have no idea who Grogan, Eason, and Millen are lol!

[jbenedet]

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be a dick but… the idea of this wave event splitting into two has been on the charts in more or less suggestion for the past week, actually. It’s not so new. I suspect we’re just getting around to noticing it.

I kind of miss lead people myself because I thought the the lead wave was really a warm advection burst or thrust pushing up through New England. But now that some time’s gone by the models caught back up with that thinking it looks more likely that it’s just lack of cold air in the antecedent setting is causing the storm to mature a cyclone prematurely relative to the trough amplitude. That shears from Ohio through the St. Lawrence seaway.

But the actual better trough amplitude happens later and that’s what the GGEM and EURO are picking up on. An idea that the 06ZGFS actually hinted a little bit towards doing also with flashing over the Greens with a late wave development

Not dickish at all, I was going to aim a post at Hazey about it a couple of days ago...never dreamed it MIGHT be a thing for us.  Emphasis on MIGHT for obvious reasons.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

 

 

early season severe outbreak at some point?

[NorEastermass128]

[ORH_wxman]

Next 10-12 days are definitely a furnace....

We slowly wait and see if the ensembles keep the post-1/20 pattern change around. So far they have and haven't pushed it back yet, but that doesn't mean much until maybe another 3-4 days pass and we're comfortably inside of 10 days.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

 

Warmest January on record coming? 

[Great Snow 1717]

11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

 

Something tells me the December Winter Train(which is long overdue) ain't arriving in January...