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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think we're going to see a lot more winters like 2016 that end up way warmer than normal, but you get an absolute monster storm or two out of it

the amount of NESIS storms over the last 20 years has skyrocketed. there's a 18 - 24" snowstorm almost every single year now since 2009-10 aside from the shutouts:

2009-10: numerous MECS

2010-11: numerous MECS - BDB, mid-Jan and late-Jan bombs

2011-12: sucked

2012-13: Nemo

2013-14: Valentine's Day? constant cold and snow though

2014-15: Juno

2015-16: Jan 2016 blizzard

2016-17: Pi Day storm

2017-18: Jan 2018 blizzard and March 2018 nor'easters

2018-19: honestly drawing a blank here

2019-20: sucked

2020-21: Dec 2020 monster storm and Feb 2021 blizzard

2021-22: late Jan blizzard

2022-23: who knows 

so yes, it's getting warmer and the nickel and dime stuff is going by the wayside a bit, but this is about as explosive as it's ever been. this is not a normal frequency for large snow events in the NE US

It was more localized but Dec 19 had a big 3 day event in S NH. I got almost half seasonal total in that event ~20", then the rest of the winter sucked

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Man everyone is unhinged.

My 4 year old asked if that was really snow on the ground this morning, only a coating at best. On the family computer yesterday, my 9 year old had left open the NWS 7 day forecast for Key West. They must have given up on winter and are ready to move on....

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24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there's actually been a consistent trend to strengthen the NS vort on the backside of the trough near Iowa from the EPS. we probably want to see more separation between the main trough, as well as a continued increase in strength to get the redevelopment scenario

the nice part about this solution is that the baroclinic zone is already dragged south by the first wave, so the airmass is "reset" a bit and it isn't as stagnant

ezgif-1-3c42dac130.thumb.gif.a7dbfa20e07de0b1137dc82d0553d32b.gif

the EPS control shows what happens when this NS vort becomes the main player... this is an unlikely solution, but it bears watching to see if that NS vort can save the day here

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-vort500_z500-1673222400-1673546400-1673805600-40.thumb.gif.e65aa36eab9d6b4af859815adf9c64ed.gif

Hopefully it keeps reforming south 

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6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

How about if NOAA can just disappear in the next decade. It's a shell of what it used to be anyway

How about now. Aside from weather, how do they have such heavy influence in our lobster industry claiming lobster nets are killing the right whales in droves. Bunch of corrupt BS. They can go FO. 23F

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man everyone is unhinged.

It's actually hilarious....small part of me hopes this winter continues as is just to seehow unhinged everyone gets and starts thinking it won't ever be cold or snowy again. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Screw it, I'm going to buy me a new shiny John Deere tractor with 47" blower this week. It has to snow!

One thing CC will help with is when we get the right pattern again, we'll prob get buried with like a 150-200" winter in your 'hood (maybe not quite as extreme down here). You'll be pimping the 47" auger housing andf everyone will be jealous. :lol:

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CC doesn't mean it will never get cold or snow...lol. Just more seasons with less snow, less cold, little to no pack. We had some wiggle room in that past as our base state temps were slowly ticking up. We are losing that now. More 34F and rain events instead of 31F and snow. We'll see.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One thing CC will help with is when we get the right pattern again, we'll prob get buried with like a 150-200" winter in your 'hood (maybe not quite as extreme down here). You'll be pimping the 47" auger housing andf everyone will be jealous. :lol:

 

7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Screw it, I'm going to buy me a new shiny John Deere tractor with 47" blower this week. It has to snow!

Better go with the 60"............:lol:

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27 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Not here. Of course it's changed.. it has for millions of years. What we're arguing is what is causing it, and more the dumb weenie "it's never going to snow again" comments. And also those who think SNE usually has a pack all winter, it's never been typical in many areas especially the valley

Who has said that?

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The EPS does develop a wave on the front, but it seems like there isn’t much moisture to wrap back in. Maybe a flip to a little -SN in SNE? A bit better up north. 

It looks like the 6z EPS brings some snow to you guys at the end. Doesn’t look as robust as last night though. South of NE, not so much
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7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm assuming that is a record low total for this point in the season.

Very much so. Grass is greening and lakes wide open. Spring/summer might be rough. Low water tables, extreme fire index, Water rationing, ticks to the extreme. Good times abound. 

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's actually hilarious....small part of me hopes this winter continues as is just to seehow unhinged everyone gets and starts thinking it won't ever be cold or snowy again. :lol:

At some point I will root for futility.  Might as well set a record or something

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