January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Really the earliest chance for anything would prob be around 1/6-1/7…so we snooze for now. 
 

There’s so much spread on the state of the PAC, I’m not going to get too invested in trying to analyze the guidance. There’s still a generally improving look in the tropics so I’m cautiously optimistic the deeper we get into January but there’s far from any guarantees. 

yeah...agreed.  I mentioned those dates a couple of times over the last few days myself. 

there's still a signal there, too, but it's weak.  That's a good way to put that, "chance for anything".     The trouble is, you mention and then people can't help themselves but to start checking on the status of their allotment of modeling cinema that was actually "scheduled" for the time frame in question.   Haha. 

Fwiw - the discrete anal analysis of the 5th - 9th/10th ...there are actually possibly two events in there.  The first is what I have/had been suggesting, in that we could correct toward +PP over SE Canada and we are seeing that emerging now in the last couple of cycles of the operational GFS. The Lakes cutter wave for the 5th has a leading dammed signature, out of a 1040 mb high trying to lobe around the elevations and the upshot is that it is under 200 hours out in time.    

Later on...there still some vestiges of a coastal trying to hang on...  As you say, the Pacific handling in a longitudinal flow like this is probably right at the tilt point of model performance.   There a examples in the Kocin/Ucellini books of these waves that came along and broke nearing the EC whilst there was very limited aft side ridging in the west.  It's just the rarer format.  

So you know there's some shit out there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah...agreed.  I mentioned those dates a couple of times over the last few days myself. 

there's still a signal there, too, but it's weak.  That's a good way to put that, "chance for anything".     The trouble is, you mention and then people can't help themselves but start checking in the status on their allotment of modeling cinema actually scheduled for the time frame in question.   Haha. 

Fwiw - the discrete anal analysis of the 5th - 9th/10th ...there are actually possibly two events in there.  The first is what I have/had been suggesting, in that were could correct toward +PP over SE Canada and we are seeing that emerging now in the last couple of cycles of the operational GFS. The Lakes cutter wave for the 5th has a leading dammed signature, out of a 1040 mb high trying to lobe around the elevations and the upshot is that it is under 200 hours out in time.    

Later on...there still some vestiges of a coastal trying to hang on...  As you say, the Pacific handling in a longitudinal flow like this is probably right at the tilt point of model performance.   There a examples in the Kocin/Ucellini books of these waves that came along and broke nearing the EC whilst there was very limited aft side ridging in the west.  It's just the rarer format.  

So you know there's some shit out there.

Remind me to stay home behind locked doors that week.

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, SSW are a definite wild card...really all I meant to imply. But regardless of how it manifested (or didn't) itself in the pattern, I didn't expect one in the technical sense, so that would be a curve ball that may or may not alter what was expected in at least a portion of February.

 Are they even favored in this QBO run up ? 

I can't seem to ever remember the - vs + relationship there...  possibly owing to how significant they are to me.  haha. Seriously though - I guess I'll look at it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 Are they even favored in this QBO run up ? 

I can't seem to ever remember the - vs + relationship there...  possibly owing to how significant they are to me.  haha. Seriously though - I guess I'll look at it.

More favored in eastern QBO, which is part of the reason that I didn't expect one.

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is it just me, or did the ensembles take a small step in the wrong direction last night?

The GEPS has the past 2 runs for sure on the 00 last night and 12 yesterday but it has been bad recently...it denied the current warmup vehemently 10-12 days ago when the GEFS/EPS insisted on it in their D12-D16 periods, now it sort of wants to kick the SER as far as 1/8-1/9.  The GEFS/EPS have worsened slightly in recent days by making the W ridge shorter and or further east...I said in the NYC forum there is a 04-05ish look in some members in the 500 heights where places like MSP/MCI/OMA torch but DCA-SNE can do okay and be below normal with snow chances.  I still prefer the ridge further west though over the Rockies or W Coast

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[MJO812]

Cmc and gfs has a storm threat next weekend. Early to take it seriously right now .

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

There really isn’t even good consensus on a very favorable pattern. Not nearly as good as what we just went through 

[40/70 Benchmark]

You can always find some guidance that sucks.....as I said, the GFS has done better with the Pacific this year. I'm not going to beat my head against a wall...like I said yesterday, the reverse psych gestapo that believes that it will never snow again is out in full force and there will be no convincing them otherwise until it does.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can always find some guidance that sucks.....as I said, the GFS has done better with the Pacific this year. I'm not going to beat my head against a wall...like I said yesterday, the reverse psych gestapo that believes that it will never snow again is out in full force and there will be no convincing them otherwise until it does.

And the it’s always snowy contingent will not be convinced otherwise until it doesn’t 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Could I be wrong and they are right....winter totally blows? Sure, but I'll trust in the weeks of research that I did late this fall, rather than tie my emotions to bipolar long range guidance.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could I be wrong and they are right....winter totally blows? Sure, but I'll trust in the weeks of research that I did late this fall, rather than tie my emotions to bipolar long range guidance.

I trust you

[Damage In Tolland]

Why not plan for the worst , and hope for the best ? To avoid letdowns and emotions 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why not plan for the worst , and hope for the best ? To avoid letdowns and emotions 

Ha...easy - cuz then what happens finds a way to be worse than that 'worse' you planned for.    lol

[Heisy]

Actually saw some pretty large scale changes on 12z OP CMC. It gets a TPV piece to drop SE with energy left over near Texas. Unfortunately the fast flow doesn’t let anything develop from it.

Fishing for anything boys




.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha...easy - cuz then what happens finds a way to be worse than that 'worse' you planned for.    lol

The danger is wearing rose colored glasses is that one gets blinded and married to “rosy” ideas and won’t jump off the horse 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why not plan for the worst , and hope for the best ? To avoid letdowns and emotions 

Who’s let down though?  We just struck out in a very good pattern. Just because the look isn’t the best on some modeling, doesn’t mean we can’t score in Jan and Feb.  I’m not putting stock in anything 384 hrs out..whether it looks good or not so good. 
 

20 yrs ago I’d be let down and very upset.  Now in my early 50’s, it’s a  slight disappointment , and a ”wish it worked out differently” type of feeling. It will snow this winter…when it happens I’ll be content. Until then there is so much more to live for. 
 

And  NNE will get theirs like they always do…and I’ll be heading way north to play in it. Just have to be a lil patient now. 

[8611Blizz]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who’s let down though?  We just struck out in a very good pattern. Just because the look isn’t the best on some modeling, doesn’t mean we can’t score in Jan and Feb.  I’m not putting stock in anything 384 hrs out..whether it looks good or not so good. 
 

20 yrs ago I’d be let down and very upset.  Now in my early 50’s, it’s a  slight disappointment , and a ”wish it worked out differently” type of feeling. It will snow this winter…when it happens I’ll be content. Until then there is so much more to live for. 
 

And  NNE will get theirs like they always do…and I’ll be heading way north to play in it. Just have to be a lil patient now. 

A content wolf?

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who’s let down though?  We just struck out in a very good pattern. Just because the look isn’t the best on some modeling, doesn’t mean we can’t score in Jan and Feb.  I’m not putting stock in anything 384 hrs out..whether it looks good or not so good. 
 

20 yrs ago I’d be let down and very upset.  Now in my early 50’s, it’s a  slight disappointment , and a ”wish it worked out differently” type of feeling. It will snow this winter…when it happens I’ll be content. Until then there is so much more to live for. 
 

And  NNE will get theirs like they always do…and I’ll be heading way north to play in it. Just have to be a lil patient now. 

All of us were letdown this month. Any snow lover and winter fan was let down . We all had hope, dreams, aspirations of a pattern that did not deliver. And it was crushing. So if you are skeptical about any positive major snowy rest of winter.. you’ll still be let down,, but be able to “ deal with it” 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

A content wolf?

Lmao…exactly.  Can’t control it, might as well not stress over it. I guess a lil age and wisdom can do that. Wish I could have felt that way years ago. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

WinterWolf is the motivational speaker of the subforum.  When winter weenies are flaccid just howl and he'll be there to pick you back up.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All of us were letdown this month. Any snow lover and winter fan was let down . We all had hope, dreams, aspirations of a pattern that did not deliver. And it was crushing. So if you are skeptical about any positive major snowy rest of winter.. you’ll still be let down,, but be able to “ deal with it” 

And I’ll Deal with it Easily.  
 

You'll be the first one, in the front seat on the snow bus when it happens.  We know the anti snow Kevin is in full on mode at the moment. We’ve all seen this Kevin dozens of times. We know the deal with you. So you’re gonna have to wait a lil longer…but it will snow again for all of us. The story on this season is one week in with 12 to go. That’s all one needs to know.  Average snow(50” for me and 60” plus for you) is well within reach and attainable. Got a whole winter left to see how things turn out. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All of us were letdown this month. Any snow lover and winter fan was let down . We all had hope, dreams, aspirations of a pattern that did not deliver. And it was crushing. So if you are skeptical about any positive major snowy rest of winter.. you’ll still be let down,, but be able to “ deal with it” 

Not all of us.   15” in December here is fine

[brooklynwx99]

assigning unreasonable expectations to any pattern is a recipe for failure. there are no guarantees with any pattern

granted, it still was very disappointing, but counting your chickens before they hatch never works with the weather. too chaotic

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Does the pacific Ever not suck 

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'd say Buffalo made out ok with the last pattern.  Over 100" on the season.  

[Typhoon Tip]

this is kinda of cool looking...  having the Pacific jet align from Tokyo to San Francisco with pretty much 0 deviation from a straight line.  heh

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/north-pac/500_vort_ht/gfs_north-pac_156_500_vort_ht.gif

[Whineminster]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Does the pacific Ever not suck 

I can't remember once in my 10 years on here where folks have said the pac looks good

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

assigning unreasonable expectations to any pattern is a recipe for failure. there are no guarantees with any pattern

granted, it still was very disappointing, but counting your chickens before they hatch never works with the weather. too chaotic

Absolutely.    That’s why I’m not taking any 384 hr EPS or GEFS run to heart in either direction.  

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

WinterWolf is the motivational speaker of the subforum.  When winter weenies are flaccid just howl and he'll be there to pick you back up.

Or maybe they need 'relationship' counseling  -