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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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18 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Old man winter screaming in with a vengeance this morning

.125 = .25 on the ground.  ...Was hard to measure with all of the blowing and drifting, and the overall depth.  Hard to keep the ruler straight. 

I will finally be able to get out and go snowshoeing today.

I envision you doing a "Cantore"!

Image result for cantore in snowstorm gif

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And the west was said to have a climate change the last decade, when they couldn’t get a fraction of the snow and rain anymore, and miraculously, it’s an absolute deluge out there, and cold and snow to beat the band..burying them.   

It all evens out eventually.  So just stop already. Take it to the climate change thread. Not here. I’m done. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

And the west was said to have a climate change the last decade, when they couldn’t get a fraction of the snow and rain anymore, and miraculously, it’s an absolute deluge out there, and cold and snow to beat the band..burying them.   

It all evens out eventually.  So just stop already. Take it to the climate change thread. Not here. I’m done. 

From Eric Fisher on TwitterImage

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there's actually been a consistent trend to strengthen the NS vort on the backside of the trough near Iowa from the EPS. we probably want to see more separation between the main trough, as well as a continued increase in strength to get the redevelopment scenario

the nice part about this solution is that the baroclinic zone is already dragged south by the first wave, so the airmass is "reset" a bit and it isn't as stagnant

ezgif-1-3c42dac130.thumb.gif.a7dbfa20e07de0b1137dc82d0553d32b.gif

the EPS control shows what happens when this NS vort becomes the main player... this is an unlikely solution, but it bears watching to see if that NS vort can save the day here

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-vort500_z500-1673222400-1673546400-1673805600-40.thumb.gif.e65aa36eab9d6b4af859815adf9c64ed.gif

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC will eventually become DC climate and Boston will become NYC.

Sucks but nothing to do

That is coming over the next decade or two, at least according to people who study these things.  But we’ll still get plenty of snow.  I just think long lasting really cold winters are going to be less common, although decadal patterns will help at times.

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It's definitely warmer due to CC, but the pattern also sucks for us. A .5 degree C increase in temperatures has likely only mattered thus far in marginal events. The pattern being dogshit has been the main contributor. CC also existed during 2014/15 and during the -NAO patterns of the late 2000's and early 2010's. 

and I'm talking about snow..not temp departures 

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20 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Are you saying the climate has not changed?

Not here. Of course it's changed.. it has for millions of years. What we're arguing is what is causing it, and more the dumb weenie "it's never going to snow again" comments. And also those who think SNE usually has a pack all winter, it's never been typical in many areas especially the valley

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11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

AGW is real.  Our climate is warming faster due to human influence.  

I think we're going to see a lot more winters like 2016 that end up way warmer than normal, but you get an absolute monster storm or two out of it

the amount of NESIS storms over the last 20 years has skyrocketed. there's a 18 - 24" snowstorm almost every single year now since 2009-10 aside from the shutouts:

2009-10: numerous MECS

2010-11: numerous MECS - BDB, mid-Jan and late-Jan bombs

2011-12: sucked

2012-13: Nemo

2013-14: Valentine's Day? constant cold and snow though

2014-15: Juno

2015-16: Jan 2016 blizzard

2016-17: Pi Day storm

2017-18: Jan 2018 blizzard and March 2018 nor'easters

2018-19: honestly drawing a blank here

2019-20: sucked

2020-21: Dec 2020 monster storm and Feb 2021 blizzard

2021-22: late Jan blizzard

2022-23: who knows 

so yes, it's getting warmer and the nickel and dime stuff is going by the wayside a bit, but this is about as explosive as it's ever been. this is not a normal frequency for large snow events in the NE US

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10 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The warming climate of New england?

 

@WinterWolf is special. It must be black or white! 

Do Global Sea Surface Temperatures.

Do the east Pacific

Now do the Gulf of Maine.


Of course I can see this data and appreciate that it’s affecting our climate at the *margin*. Meaning: cc is happening and yet, we absolutely can have another 2015 winter season. 
 

The marginal warming has killed our totals on *marginal* events. The prevailing story this year is the best cold being delivered in the west, central and even Ohio River Valley. 
 

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think we're going to see a lot more winters like 2016 that end up way warmer than normal, but you get an absolute monster storm or two out of it

the amount of NESIS storms over the last 20 years has skyrocketed. there's a 24" snowstorm almost every single year now aside from the shutouts:

2009-10: numerous MECS

2010-11: numerous MECS - BDB, mid-Jan and late-Jan bombs

2011-12: sucked

2012-13: Nemo

2013-14: Valentine's Day? constant cold and snow though

2014-15: Juno

2015-16: Jan 2016 blizzard

2016-17: Pi Day storm

2017-18: Jan 2018 blizzard and March 2018 nor'easters

2018-19: honestly drawing a blank here

2019-20: sucked

2020-21: Dec 2020 monster storm and Feb 2021 blizzard

2021-22: late Jan blizzard

2022-23: who knows 

so yes, it's getting warmer and the nickel and dime stuff is going by the wayside a bit, but this is about as explosive as it's ever been. this is not a normal frequency for large snow events in the NE US

We were just talking about winter 16/17 yesterday. It was one of the better winters IMBY, but I can't remember how areas SE did. It was a warmer winter, yet I had a pack longer than most in the last 25 years

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Just because AGW is real, doesn't mean the west won't see snow anymore or New England will stop snowing all together (This is probably happen at somepoint, not sure anyone can fully predict when at this point). Yes there have always been heat waves and arctic outbreaks and we will continue to see these occur. The problem is that these events are becoming extreme and are occuring in greater frequency. Records aren't just broken, they are shattered whether it is temperatures, snowfall, rainfall, etc. The world barely does average anymore thanks to AGW...The acceleration factor is larger thanks in part to the human catalyst....

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Just now, UnitedWx said:

We were just talking about winter 16/17 yesterday. It was one of the better winters IMBY, but I can't remember how areas SE did. It was a warmer winter, yet I had a pack longer than most in the last 25 years

it was another one of those lamer winters in NYC, but the March 13 storm was pretty incredible. thundersleet in the metro and 6-12" of snow/sleet pack with 1-2 feet of snow in NW NJ

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@WinterWolf is special. It must be black or white! 

Do Global Sea Surface Temperatures.

Do the east Pacific

Now do the Gulf of Maine.


Of course I can see this data and appreciate that it’s affecting our climate at the *margin*. Meaning: cc is happening and yet, we absolutely can have another 2015 winter season. 
 

The marginal warming has killed our totals on *marginal* events. The prevailing story this year is the best cold being delivered in the west, central and even Ohio River Valley. 
 

Some said the same thing after 2011/12. Believe it, yes.. believe it's what's causing our current situation, no

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

You have to wonder if BOX changes advisory and warning criteria amounts for the area before the end of the decade. Warning threshold reduced to 5”. Maybe 4”?  Advisories for coatings?  Very disappointing. 
 

 

:weenie:

How about if NOAA can just disappear in the next decade. It's a shell of what it used to be anyway

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