CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I do expect it, theoretically speaking, but I am totally with the "believe when see" crowd, at this point. Yep and it will be awhile until we see. Maybe next weekend this time it’s within 8-9 days. Then we can believe. Until then expect jack dick with this pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, 512high said: Good call on the Patriots Tip! Did he also forecast a rainer for Miami? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep and it will be awhile until we see. Maybe next weekend this time it’s within 8-9 days. Than we can believe. Until then I’ll jack dicks with this pattern. Whose? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 42 minutes ago, RDRY said: Maybe it's more a case of the models simply unable to forecast the teleconnectors even a couple weeks out. How many winters do we see the ensembles suggest a pattern change two weeks out, only to have the teleconnectors ultimately not budging from the persistent pattern? Oh, so you were talking about the 'modeling' of the telecons, not the telecons themselves. If that's the case... yeah, they've been more unstable in guidance performance...I'd say that began roughly 10 years ago. I recall in the 1990s ... + and - regimes in PNA used to last longer. They same to Rosby roll-out/back with far more frequency now. That instability ... the models are going to inherently not do as well performance-wise. As an aside... that all began roughly when oddities of extremes increased in frequency all over the globe, too, winters and summers. Probably, not a mere coincidence. The teleconnectors work ( by the way...) because what it is really all about is "conservation of mass" If the heights are high in one spot, they have to be lower in another. That's just physics in a domain where mass is neither lost or destroyed, as cliche goes - but is apropos. Now, it doesn't have to be 1 to 1, either. Using the NAO again for an example, the domain could be in a very deep negative mode; that doesn't mean that the compensating positive (the teleconnection) is all concentrated in that one spot - there can be an aggregate of local maxes(mins) that suffice mass balance. There can also be general miasmas of positive heights over the NAO domain that are more tepid with one deep vortex balances that way, too. Sometimes a big NAO block will have a parade of smaller negatives that in total and time, amass to the balance. etc... The correlations exist, because of that arithmetic. Now, to make this all actually confusing ( LOL ), that is all happening in perpetual motion. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Yep and it will be awhile until we see. Maybe next weekend this time it’s within 8-9 days. Then we can believe. Until then expect jack dick with this pattern.Do you think February somehow avoids going climo canonical La Niña? This Niña is still looking real healthy and well coupled. Region 3.4 just dropped to -1.1C, the SOI is still very strongly positive and the trade winds are still very strong https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not fake with the MJO becoming finally favorable Highly overrated.. just like negative NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Do you think February somehow avoids going climo canonical La Niña? This Niña is still looking real healthy and well coupled. Region 3.4 just dropped to -1.1C, the SOI is still very strongly positive and the trade winds are still very strong https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png MEI is rising precipitously, albeit still low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Watch 18Z GFS go back to trying to drag the weenies in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Huh... does the Euro qualify as a "cutter" ... seems it's like a "east-based cutter", if there can be such a thing. ...which in the absence of enough cold air, in January no less, must also qualify that as a "west-based boning" .. I don't know. I was thinking driving around this morning doing errands ... we can squeak a better result out of that thing, but it can't go west or we're cooked. Some of the GFS runs have been getting close, but then would Miller B just in time... What does the Euro do, summarily goes west. But it's doing it from Cincinnati to Montreal, which is a trek less traveled. Yeah... I also think the lack of cold is killing us this winter. We can't seem to manufacture enough ... it either rolls out or just moderates, too quickly. If more cold, dense air would slab into the NE ahead of this thing, we probably wouldn't be in the waiting room out aside a Turkish rape clinic ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Do you think February somehow avoids going climo canonical La Niña? This Niña is still looking real healthy and well coupled. Region 3.4 just dropped to -1.1C, the SOI is still very strongly positive and the trade winds are still very strong https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Great let’s fuck up April and May!! 2 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Do you think February somehow avoids going climo canonical La Niña? This Niña is still looking real healthy and well coupled. Region 3.4 just dropped to -1.1C, the SOI is still very strongly positive and the trade winds are still very strong https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png Weeklies tries to hold out hope. In this winter, I have zero confidence. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 We're also getting roasted by a Pacific flood on D9/10 of that Euro run, without a "PIG" low - as y'all call it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Great let’s fuck up April and May!! Beers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Beers? None. I could use some though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Well DIT is going to rejoice at the 18z GFS . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Great let’s fuck up April and May!! Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Well DIT is going to rejoice at the 18z GFS . Misery loves company. I’m rooting for it though to end up better for NNE. The base depths have to be pretty awful right now. A mild rainer is the last thing needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Yes please I hope it’s 93/75 from Mem Day to Labor Day. 4 1 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Well DIT is going to rejoice at the 18z GFS . Puke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 In this winter, I am psyched for my .25" of snow over night.....Will most likely wake up with nothing but bare ground though, 28 degrees at the moment. Surprisingly chilly day, despite the full sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I posted a couple of his blogs about the stratospheric warming events, and I got blasted by some of these guys that he's not legit or it's nonsense. So don't be surprised when you get comments back about the same thing lol. Just giving you a heads up. But I'm still optimistic with you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I posted a couple of his blogs about the stratospheric warming events, and I got blasted by some of these guys that he's not legit or it's nonsense. So don't be surprised when you get comments back about the same thing lol. Just giving you a heads up. But I'm still optimistic with you Dude is ACATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Not enough buns 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I love how the pre-Xmas “warming” event didn’t even get the temps back to climo. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I love how the pre-Xmas “warming” event didn’t even get the temps back to climo. Was there even one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 This field is loaded with effing idiots. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Yeah, Blue agave needs to put down the bottle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 But was there really measurable snow every single day in Edwardsville PA during Feb 2015? Ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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