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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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  On 1/8/2023 at 7:54 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

I hope we do get that change. If things do make a change after the 21st, people will forget about their " cancel winter ", and embrace the changes.

I am still optimistic. I cannot give up until winter's over. And I'm sure everybody else feels the same way, or you wouldn't still be here. 

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I'm still optimistic as well, but the kicking the can, it seems we've seen weeklies look great after (insert time period here), and as we close in on said time, all the mechanics and teles that made the outlook look favorable have turned to crap and we rain to Maine

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  On 1/8/2023 at 7:47 PM, dryslot said:

Nothing really has changed much in those areas the last day or so.

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No, nothing has really changed.  The risk has always been super amped and rain.  The EURO is still better than it was two days ago.  I think it was yesterday at 00z or 12z the GGEM had 4 days of rain at 3-5" of water everywhere.  The aggregate is still a good risk of a front end snower for NNE (especially mtns) before it mixes, dry slots or rains.  The lower probability full "win" is just an all-snow event.

It isn't game over like it is points south at this stage.

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  On 1/8/2023 at 7:59 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Enjoy it pretty 500mb anomalies days 11-15 are the only winter weather we’ve got - Sey-Mour Bastardi 

EA2C8B84-735A-4151-92B8-43E0A56F6A72.png

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Hey it’s a weather board…post the fuckas.  It’s a good look lol.  Probably won’t play out, unless it finally does?  If it does…still tons of winter left at that point. But whatever. I and Jeff need way up north(Aroostook) and west to get this one coming…And it still looks pretty good for them currently. 

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  On 1/8/2023 at 8:04 PM, WinterWolf said:
Hey it’s a weather board…post the fuckas.  It’s a good look lol.  Probably won’t play out, unless it finally does?  If it does…still tons of winter left at that point. But whatever. I and Jeff need way up north(Aroostook) and west to get this one coming…And it still looks pretty good for them currently. 

It’s all we have to look forward to right now tbh


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  On 1/8/2023 at 8:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That is a legit very good pattern on the ensembles but we waive caution flags until much closer. 

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Oh ya we do.
 

It’ll cave in most likely. But that’s a beaut of a look as you said. And at a great time climatologically too…just saying. But now it’s just a fantasy. 

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  On 1/8/2023 at 7:38 PM, RDRY said:

I don't understand the teleconnections nearly as well as most on here, but shouldn't they have been mostly awful for northeast cold and snow for most of December and now seemingly most or all of January?

Otherwise, they seem to be essentially useless as forecasting tools.

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Your first paragraph is kinda hard to parse out what you’re trying to say there.

But I’m not sure why you’re attacking the teleconnectors? It depends on what one is using them for. If they are using it to predict storms and snow and or warm and nice sunny weather, whichever it is they want, then they’re not using them for that what they’re designed for. They don’t predict specific weather. What they do is provide statistical correlations. 

For example… Positive height anomalies over the D St. correlates to negative height anomalies over the eastern seaboard of the United States. 

Having said that, there are no correlations that are 1::1 either m. Just because the correlation suggests, doesn’t mean that’s going to happen. But secondly it may increase or decrease the chances for getting a storm along the eastern seaboard but that’s all it does- it doesn’t drive or force the storm to happen so it’s not like if the storm doesn’t happen, or the sunny day doesn’t happen, one can blame it on the teleconnector

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  On 1/8/2023 at 8:02 PM, powderfreak said:
No, nothing has really changed.  The risk has always been super amped and rain.  The EURO is still better than it was two days ago.  I think it was yesterday at 00z or 12z the GGEM had 4 days of rain at 3-5" of water everywhere.  The aggregate is still a good risk of a front end snower for NNE (especially mtns) before it mixes, dry slots or rains.  The lower probability full "win" is just an all-snow event.
It isn't game over like it is points south at this stage.

That cmc solution would have led to all time bad conditions with how things are right now. I think we pull a net gain next weekend and anything ever is gravy..tues looks like a sneaky good ski day. That upslope Monday night looks juicy for a bit up here.


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  On 1/8/2023 at 8:27 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Your first paragraph is kinda hard to parse out what you’re trying to say there.

But I’m not sure why you’re attacking the teleconnectors? It depends on what one is using them for. If they are using it to predict storms and snow and or warm and nice sunny weather, whichever it is they want, then they’re not using them for that what they’re designed for. They don’t predict specific weather. What they do is provide statistical correlations. 

For example… Positive height anomalies over the D St. correlates to negative height anomalies over the eastern seaboard of the United States. 

Having said that, there are no correlations that are 1::1 either m. Just because the correlation suggests, doesn’t mean that’s going to happen. But secondly it may increase or decrease the chances for getting a storm along the eastern seaboard but that’s all it does- it doesn’t drive or force the storm to happen so it’s not like if the storm doesn’t happen, or the sunny day doesn’t happen, one can blame it on the teleconnector

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Maybe it's more a case of the models simply unable to forecast the teleconnectors even a couple weeks out. How many winters do we see the ensembles suggest a pattern change two weeks out, only to have the teleconnectors ultimately not budging from the persistent pattern?

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Some of GYX's long term discussion, Makes a good point,

The low is expected to track eastward from the Ohio River
Valley, but there remains discrepancy among the models about
how far northward the storm tracks. Overall there has been a
slight trend toward stronger high pressure to the north
supplying cooler air to the region, while also suppressing the
storm track further south. This scenario would allow for the
potential of a significant snowfall, especially across northern
areas. The Euro and its ensemble suite remain the most amplified
with the system. This is one of the known biases with the model
however, and was on display this past week when the bulk of the
warm air across southern New England failed to reach our area
as the storm was less amplified and stronger cold air damming
was allowed to hold across the area. With that in recent memory,
a solution closer to the cooler GFS scenario looks reasonable
at this point. This still likely brings in a mix and changeover
to rain across southern areas, but northern areas stand a chance
to stay mostly snow.
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  On 1/8/2023 at 8:59 PM, dryslot said:

Some of GYX's long term discussion, Makes a good point,

The low is expected to track eastward from the Ohio River
Valley, but there remains discrepancy among the models about
how far northward the storm tracks. Overall there has been a
slight trend toward stronger high pressure to the north
supplying cooler air to the region, while also suppressing the
storm track further south. This scenario would allow for the
potential of a significant snowfall, especially across northern
areas. The Euro and its ensemble suite remain the most amplified
with the system. This is one of the known biases with the model
however, and was on display this past week when the bulk of the
warm air across southern New England failed to reach our area
as the storm was less amplified and stronger cold air damming
was allowed to hold across the area. With that in recent memory,
a solution closer to the cooler GFS scenario looks reasonable
at this point. This still likely brings in a mix and changeover
to rain across southern areas, but northern areas stand a chance
to stay mostly snow.
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More so down our way then up your way… but it’s funny about those “known biases”

they’ve been for the most part true every time they’re brought up, but the problem is, it hasn’t mattered. Maybe it will this time maybe it won’t. But given to your latitude up that way that would probably be the best place

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  On 1/8/2023 at 9:10 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

More so down our way then up your way… but it’s funny about those “known biases”

they’ve been for the most part true every time they’re brought up, but the problem is, it hasn’t mattered. Maybe it will this time maybe it won’t. But given to your latitude up that way that would probably be the best place

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Good call on the Patriots Tip!

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  On 1/8/2023 at 9:10 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

More so down our way then up your way… but it’s funny about those “known biases”

they’ve been for the most part true every time they’re brought up, but the problem is, it hasn’t mattered. Maybe it will this time maybe it won’t. But given to your latitude up that way that would probably be the best place

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It had a us furnaced last week on the friday system and the cold air won out, We didn't have the qpf, .10" or so with 1.5" of snow as the bulk stayed south, But temps never got out of the mid 20's once the front sagged south of here.

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