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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

The spread has tighten some, At least its starting to have some grouping and not looking like bird shot from the last couple days.

eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_144.png

I think what happens days 4-5 with the initial wave interaction and slp track through the midwest is actually more important than where the low center is at day 6.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Little -SN ahead of it.

That doesn’t exactly scream warm solution extrapolated out. All that smooshed vort energy leading the main shortwave looks like it would hold in high pressure well…but I ain’t biting until we see most guidance trend this way

 

CC697EC9-8A47-40A6-B924-CCAD15E72584.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That doesn’t exactly scream warm solution extrapolated out. All that smooshed vort energy leading the main shortwave looks like it would hold in high pressure well…but I ain’t biting until we see most guidance trend this way

 

CC697EC9-8A47-40A6-B924-CCAD15E72584.jpeg

Sunday is the day of prayer. 

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Clown range Reggie not biting. That vort energy is too close to the main shortwave. You’ll just advect out the colder airmass before the main show arrives in that look as the two would eventually phase i think….you need that Wisconsin/Minnesota piece to run out well ahead 

6795D893-2F5F-40C9-8036-034FACFC13AA.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Clown range Reggie not biting. That vort energy is too close to the main shortwave. You’ll just advect out the colder airmass before the main show arrives in that look as the two would eventually phase i think….you need that Wisconsin/Minnesota piece to run out well ahead 

6795D893-2F5F-40C9-8036-034FACFC13AA.jpeg

Usually that's what happens in LA Nina winters. Its usually hard to get a phase .

Strange winter 

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Definitely not at day 4 in the Midwest. But a subsequent phasing of a follow up polar wave when the main low has traversed further east could work out.

Some of the models had been doing that further west sending the slp well to the west of the region so no, We don't need that.

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Usually that's what happens in LA Nina winters. Its usually hard to get a phase .

Strange winter 

In this case, You don't want a phase in that position or even further west of there, It would better for them to remain separate until it gets further east.

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overnight runs were up and in again. Euro is a hugger (low over central PA), gfs cuts the low to Chicago, Canadian similar to Euro, Icon also similar. Then we have the Navy on its own with more aggressive Miller B redevelopment. Hopefully everything trends towards the Navy but I’m skeptical. Looks like the Pope had the right idea, doesn’t look like an SNE snower but NNE could do well.

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