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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah beautiful morning.  Everything pasted white again.  Trees looked beautiful from town to the mountain.

Alpenglow this morning was on point... whole east side just glowing pink.

Just slightly envious of this scene…

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we’re probably cooked regardless. But it’s definitely not happening if we trend back warmer at 12z. 

the only interesting thing here is that the ensembles have picked out a NS vort that's ahead of the main trough. some of the EPS members turn this into a quasi-50/50 low and produce legit coastals. there were a handful at 00z with significant snow to the coastal plain down to DC actually haha

it's definitely a longshot, but we would want to see that piece trend stronger to lower downstream heights and maybe even interact with the departing confluence

ezgif-1-fb7781bbb3.thumb.gif.6676e3fd8d0b8c9cddce6a0d0bea7ba7.gif

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the only interesting thing here is that the ensembles have picked out a NS vort that's ahead of the main trough. some of the EPS members turn this into a quasi-50/50 low and produce legit coastals. there were a handful at 00z with significant snow to the coastal plain down to DC actually haha

it's definitely a longshot, but we would want to see that piece trend stronger to lower downstream heights and maybe even interact with the departing confluence

ezgif-1-fb7781bbb3.thumb.gif.6676e3fd8d0b8c9cddce6a0d0bea7ba7.gif

Yeah I saw that. Almost trying to recreate the good look from several days ago except it’s not using this massive piece of the TPV to do it…trying to key in on a smaller vortmax which is more precarious. It’s doable but that would require things to actually trend well inside of 5 days. :lol:

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hey at least you're honest about it, ha.  GFS/GGEM/EURO/ICON all offer hope but dangerous because it's still 5 days away.  Way out there in la la model land.

You can tell by some of the comments that they didn't look at models, All the ones that went out that far has snow for some in NNE, I'll stand by my comment from yesterday, Someone's going to get crushed and right now, A few areas look to be favored especially the elevated ones unless this ends up tracking to BGM.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You can tell by some of the comments that they didn't look at models, All the ones that went out that far has snow for some in NNE, I'll stand by my comment from yesterday, Someone's going to get crushed and right now, A few areas look to be favored especially the elevated ones unless this ends up tracking to BGM.

I have no hope other than a slim chance at a coating; northern ORH into C/NNE are areas that could make out

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10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the only interesting thing here is that the ensembles have picked out a NS vort that's ahead of the main trough. some of the EPS members turn this into a quasi-50/50 low and produce legit coastals. there were a handful at 00z with significant snow to the coastal plain down to DC actually haha

it's definitely a longshot, but we would want to see that piece trend stronger to lower downstream heights and maybe even interact with the departing confluence

ezgif-1-fb7781bbb3.thumb.gif.6676e3fd8d0b8c9cddce6a0d0bea7ba7.gif

This was evident on the 0z Op Euro last night as that in itself acted like a clipper with snow out ahead of the s/w down south.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NNE at least has a legit airmass it seems to help with a front ender before any rain. 

Yeah and we never truly get into that airmass on most runs (00z gfs we did). We need that vort to swing around further southwest to get us in the game and I’m skeptical it will just keep coming southwest. If anything it’s prob more likely to trend back northeast since there’s not much blocking up there right now. 

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Just now, Modfan2 said:

I have no hope other than a slim chance at a coating; northern ORH into C/NNE are areas that could make out

I think if you even go back 3-4 days ago, Ensembles still had those areas with snow, Now it could still go to crap too, But right now, It still has to be watched up here, We really need the western areas and north of here to cash soon.

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32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The EURO and GGEM aren't as big but are showing warning level snows too.

The three big models all have a decent snow at this point for NNE in some fashion.  It's not completely on its own.

I'm not saying it's going to happen per se but everyone is just so gun-shy they will toss everything all the time at this point.  

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-4000000.thumb.png.1f9381def047a5f1e5183fec1b84edb9.png

gem-all-neng-total_snow_10to1-4000000.thumb.png.05e0009a52225d8616fbbbbef4b06e47.png

Not everyone 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and we never truly get into that airmass on most runs (00z gfs we did). We need that vort to swing around further southwest to get us in the game and I’m skeptical it will just keep coming southwest. If anything it’s prob more likely to trend back northeast since there’s not much blocking up there right now. 

It would be such a moral victory if this even became a 6” SWFE down here before any rain lol. Of course part of me thought maybe just maybe something may try to go right. I’m sure winter will in and up us again. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

What sucks is that the flow goes SE as the low sort of propagates east. Retreating high ftl.

It thumps pretty good before on some of these runs, Its to bad with that high too, Its in the 1030-40mb range so it is decent one, Some of the snowier solutions hold it longer before it retreats though, So i guess we need to see if that changes.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It thumps pretty good before on some of these runs, Its to bad with that high too, Its in the 1030-40mb range so it is decent one, Some of the snowier solutions hold it longer before it retreats though, So i guess we need to see if that changes.

Yeah just commenting in general. Probably a hell of a Cstl front for a time between you and the coastline verbatim should  that verify.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah just commenting in general. Probably a hell of a Cstl front for a time between you and the coastline verbatim should  that verify.

It would flip here verbatim and be a birch bender but away from here could really cash, My focus is mainly west and north of here, If i'm to get any riding in at all this season, Its going to be in those areas.

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