Kitz Craver Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah beautiful morning. Everything pasted white again. Trees looked beautiful from town to the mountain. Alpenglow this morning was on point... whole east side just glowing pink. Just slightly envious of this scene… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Early runs all went north . That happens again at 12z fugedaboutit Yeah we’re probably cooked regardless. But it’s definitely not happening if we trend back warmer at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 This would be a blessing for C/NNE. Much needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we’re probably cooked regardless. But it’s definitely not happening if we trend back warmer at 12z. the only interesting thing here is that the ensembles have picked out a NS vort that's ahead of the main trough. some of the EPS members turn this into a quasi-50/50 low and produce legit coastals. there were a handful at 00z with significant snow to the coastal plain down to DC actually haha it's definitely a longshot, but we would want to see that piece trend stronger to lower downstream heights and maybe even interact with the departing confluence 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Even if they hold pat I think the goose is cooked for SNE. What’s good for the goose not good for the gander. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Looks like a volcano eruption in Bretton Woods lol 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the only interesting thing here is that the ensembles have picked out a NS vort that's ahead of the main trough. some of the EPS members turn this into a quasi-50/50 low and produce legit coastals. there were a handful at 00z with significant snow to the coastal plain down to DC actually haha it's definitely a longshot, but we would want to see that piece trend stronger to lower downstream heights and maybe even interact with the departing confluence Yeah I saw that. Almost trying to recreate the good look from several days ago except it’s not using this massive piece of the TPV to do it…trying to key in on a smaller vortmax which is more precarious. It’s doable but that would require things to actually trend well inside of 5 days. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hey at least you're honest about it, ha. GFS/GGEM/EURO/ICON all offer hope but dangerous because it's still 5 days away. Way out there in la la model land. You can tell by some of the comments that they didn't look at models, All the ones that went out that far has snow for some in NNE, I'll stand by my comment from yesterday, Someone's going to get crushed and right now, A few areas look to be favored especially the elevated ones unless this ends up tracking to BGM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 NNE at least has a legit airmass it seems to help with a front ender before any rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: You can tell by some of the comments that they didn't look at models, All the ones that went out that far has snow for some in NNE, I'll stand by my comment from yesterday, Someone's going to get crushed and right now, A few areas look to be favored especially the elevated ones unless this ends up tracking to BGM. I have no hope other than a slim chance at a coating; northern ORH into C/NNE are areas that could make out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the only interesting thing here is that the ensembles have picked out a NS vort that's ahead of the main trough. some of the EPS members turn this into a quasi-50/50 low and produce legit coastals. there were a handful at 00z with significant snow to the coastal plain down to DC actually haha it's definitely a longshot, but we would want to see that piece trend stronger to lower downstream heights and maybe even interact with the departing confluence This was evident on the 0z Op Euro last night as that in itself acted like a clipper with snow out ahead of the s/w down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NNE at least has a legit airmass it seems to help with a front ender before any rain. Yeah and we never truly get into that airmass on most runs (00z gfs we did). We need that vort to swing around further southwest to get us in the game and I’m skeptical it will just keep coming southwest. If anything it’s prob more likely to trend back northeast since there’s not much blocking up there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NNE at least has a legit airmass it seems to help with a front ender before any rain. The individual ensembles are all over the place. These maps are largely BS but show the spread. The forum just needs a P21. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, Modfan2 said: I have no hope other than a slim chance at a coating; northern ORH into C/NNE are areas that could make out I think if you even go back 3-4 days ago, Ensembles still had those areas with snow, Now it could still go to crap too, But right now, It still has to be watched up here, We really need the western areas and north of here to cash soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 32 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The EURO and GGEM aren't as big but are showing warning level snows too. The three big models all have a decent snow at this point for NNE in some fashion. It's not completely on its own. I'm not saying it's going to happen per se but everyone is just so gun-shy they will toss everything all the time at this point. Not everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 The spread has tighten some, At least its starting to have some grouping and not looking like bird shot from the last couple days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and we never truly get into that airmass on most runs (00z gfs we did). We need that vort to swing around further southwest to get us in the game and I’m skeptical it will just keep coming southwest. If anything it’s prob more likely to trend back northeast since there’s not much blocking up there right now. It would be such a moral victory if this even became a 6” SWFE down here before any rain lol. Of course part of me thought maybe just maybe something may try to go right. I’m sure winter will in and up us again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: The spread has tighten some, At least its starting to have some grouping and not looking like bird shot from the last couple days. What sucks is that the flow goes SE as the low sort of propagates east. Retreating high ftl. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: What sucks is that the flow goes SE as the low sort of propagates east. Retreating high ftl. It thumps pretty good before on some of these runs, Its to bad with that high too, Its in the 1030-40mb range so it is decent one, Some of the snowier solutions hold it longer before it retreats though, So i guess we need to see if that changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: It thumps pretty good before on some of these runs, Its to bad with that high too, Its in the 1030-40mb range so it is decent one, Some of the snowier solutions hold it longer before it retreats though, So i guess we need to see if that changes. Yeah just commenting in general. Probably a hell of a Cstl front for a time between you and the coastline verbatim should that verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah just commenting in general. Probably a hell of a Cstl front for a time between you and the coastline verbatim should that verify. It would flip here verbatim and be a birch bender but away from here could really cash, My focus is mainly west and north of here, If i'm to get any riding in at all this season, Its going to be in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What sucks is that the flow goes SE as the low sort of propagates east. Retreating high ftl. Crappy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: It thumps pretty good before on some of these runs, Its to bad with that high too, Its in the 1030-40mb range so it is decent one, Some of the snowier solutions hold it longer before it retreats though, So i guess we need to see if that changes. Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Ukie Poopie 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 45 minutes ago, alex said: Looks like a volcano eruption in Bretton Woods lol So this is how you come up with your big snow totals. Blow that the other way and the powder just drops on you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Poopie Dookie ? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ukie Saw it at hr 144 on pivitol, I forget it gets to 168 on weathermodels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ukie That’s probably what will verify I’ll save that map for verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 That’s decent for NNE…I’d be happy with that for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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