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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian couldn’t be anymore different from 12z. Still stinks here, but light years better up north.

Unlike December, where the models locked in a catastrophe as soon as they flipped, at least this one’s modestly more uncertain.

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12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

She’s trending 

In all these guidance doing so there is a more robust western ridge … burgeoning across subsequent runs. 

in fact the only thing stopping tonight’s Canadian and GFS from committing to a more coherent Miller B scenario is that the trough is too noisy.  The pattern around it seems to at least transiently already be a fit… Despite not being any Tele connector support but that’s another fascination.

Anyway there’s interference going on inside the trough. Those models don’t seem to know which jet max to really focus on. Like the GFS decided to go with an Ohio low whereas the Canadian tries to run a low up the ME coast and then have another new low developing east of Cape Hat.

This is just crossing inside of DAY6 by the way… This is no longer a deep extended range affair

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