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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would have been okay with it if I didn't get porked in the blizzard. 

If 1/17 last winter hadn’t pulled the most grotesque 1 in 100 phase that ripped it up the Hudson valley, last winter may have had a legit standing as solidly good. That cost us double digits in snowfall and also a large change in the tenor of the month. It would’ve given us deep pack almost the whole month after 1/7. It would’ve turned January into a true big dog month. 

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If 1/17 last winter hadn’t pulled the most grotesque 1 in 100 phase that ripped it up the Hudson valley, last winter may have had a legit standing as solidly good. That cost us double digits in snowfall and also a large change in the tenor of the month. It would’ve given us deep pack almost the whole month after 1/7. It would’ve turned January into a true big dog month. 

What did you have in holliston last year? I'm thinking southborough was right around average.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

What other storms besides the blizzard last year? That was my only 12”+ storm. Jan 7th was maybe 8” here, you did have a great band that prob gave you a foot.
 

I can’t think of any others that got close there.  Feb 25th was around 9” here but we were close to jackpot. Most people had 6-8. 

I just went back and checked.   4 snows >7 with 2 of them 12+.

1/7/22:  12.2

1/28-29: 22.6

2/14:  7.3

2/25: 7.3

Season total:  57.05-you can see that I had only 8 inches aside from those 4 events.

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2 hours ago, PWMan said:

I haven’t had my grass fully covered yet. Saw kids today trying to sled in patchy shaded areas; reminded me of living in  the southern mid-Atlantic.

Really?  Today made for 5 days this season with >2" depth (wow, I know - but for 6.8" on the season, I'll take it).

Kids were up and after it early at Fort Williams.  

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I actually don’t have a problem with the MJO contributing some … 

The hemisphere appears receptive to it actually moving east of the Niña firewall. Dispersion (wave propagation) is constructively interfering.  It’s just not an aspect that is on the charts at this time -

It won’t drive the pattern … it may contribute. NCEP has 70+% prob for NIÑA neutralization over the next 40 days. It could in total send the pattern roulette turning for a new number. 

No idea what their reasoning is but these questions are worth asking. 

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1 minute ago, tunafish said:

Really?  Today made for 5 days this year with >2" depth (wow, I know - but for 6.8" on the season, I'll take it).

Kids were up and after it early at Fort Williams.  

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Good stuff. I should clarify that I have had a couple days with a couple inches of cover, but with bare spots under trees. I’ve used my snowblower once. You had to be out early today since a lot of it vaporized once the sun came out. In any case, while I’ve appreciated what we’ve gotten it’s been paltry.

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Very nice snow globe evening. It’s been snowing for over 36 hours now; amazing how much that changes the feel, even though we’ve only gotten 4-5” in total. For people visiting, it just feels like winter and while there were only 6 top to bottom routes, the skiing was quite decent, especially given the lack of crowds 

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26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sometimes I think the MJO gets overblown. Not downplaying it's importance but I feel like anytime the winter is going back in the Northeast you get folks trying to use the MJO as a saving grace and that the MJO is going to save the day. 

All indices are overblown 

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10 minutes ago, alex said:

Very nice snow globe evening. It’s been snowing for over 36 hours now; amazing how much that changes the feel, even though we’ve only gotten 4-5” in total. For people visiting, it just feels like winter and while there were only 6 top to bottom routes, the skiing was quite decent, especially given the lack of crowds 

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Yeah been a snowy vibe evening. We’ve got a standing wave going this evening with steadier snows down into town than at the mountain, oddly enough.

Driving through the galaxy big flakes this evening.

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Mountain has gained about 4” of dense upslope last day or so.

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1 minute ago, Chris12WX said:

All indices are overblown 

Well not necessarily. In a nutshell, indices are how we assess and analyze the pattern. Many of the indices out there are a measure of pressure anomalies between fixed pressure circulations. For example, when we're talking about say the North Atlantic Oscillation and say it is negative, that is suggesting that the pressures associated with the icelandic low and azores high are both weaker than average. 

The biggest challenge becomes with interpretation and understanding of what each of these indices mean and how they are all driving the pattern. More times than not, the pattern is not driven by one variable. But what there seems to be a tendency of is making 1:1 correlations when there is no 1:1 correlation. Back to the NAO example, we tend to think of negative NAO's as being below-average temperature wise in the Northeast with increased snowfall potential, however, that is not a 1:1 correlation. 

The overblown comes with the "the PNA, EPO, AO, NAO, MJO " is this so we'll see this. 

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23 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Good stuff. I should clarify that I have had a couple days with a couple inches of cover, but with bare spots under trees. I’ve used my snowblower once. You had to be out early today since a lot of it vaporized once the sun came out. In any case, while I’ve appreciated what we’ve gotten it’s been paltry.

Paltry is the right word.  Painful, too.  Same here on the snowblower front and that stuff was maybe more liquid than solid.

Yeah, we were out there at 830 or so, fog kept the sun away until about 10.

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

well another stupid, ridiculous 10:30 Bruins game tonight so hopefully the GFS takes a page out of the Bruins book tonight and delivers. If the GFS sucks I'm going to throw the beer can at the computer (once its empty). 

These west coast trips are a killer for start times.

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

well another stupid, ridiculous 10:30 Bruins game tonight so hopefully the GFS takes a page out of the Bruins book tonight and delivers. If the GFS sucks I'm going to throw the beer can at the computer (once its empty). 

My money is on warmer than 18z. It's like clockwork and they are full of shit that off hour runs aren't inferior. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

They should start these games 6:30 PT. 9:30 is still a bit much for East Coast people but it better then 10:30. 

Having lived on the west coast/tough shit.  Try NFL at 10AM every week and missing the 1st quarter of MNF every week.

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