bwt3650 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Yeah it’s about to get cold verbatim. But again, in VT you don’t need -10 departures either lol.Was euro as bad as cmc for up here at 12z?? Id take that gfs thump, showers, back end but I don’t know how I feel about trusting gfs 6 days out this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think it's totally wrong to hold out for March. I mean sure the odds historically aren't great, but they aren't zero. You never know what can really happen moving through February and into March. Something could occur that could totally shake the pattern and we've seen that happen before. Again, the probability is very low, but not zero and that's all that really counts. I have 3.5" of snow....my record low dating back to 1956 is 19.9". Considering the awful luck we have had this season, I think we will make up some ground, aside from any strat voodoo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every winter that starts late .. it’s the worry. When I sense Dec is at risk and then lost.. that’s already a huge negative to overcome. And then you hit Jan 15 and that’s lost. You just don’t come back from that . This is exactly why I can’t stand the Climo posts in December. It’s bullshit. Most Times you lose Dec thru Jan 15 .. you lose winter But the data says December is not wintry. Especially prior to 12/20. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I truly wouldn't. Your forecasts should have worked out better than it did. There were things at play beyond any model output. Plus... No one has mentioned much about the volcanic blast from last January ( which was one of the biggest in recent history ). I think that really played havoc on the entire world ( both hemispheres ). It evens out....I have also had forecasts work out better than they should have. It happens...can't be shy about embracing forecast misses bc they become your ally moving forward and also foster a sense of credibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Might as well try and get some massive flooding rains out of this if we can’t get any snow. I was driving through Bolton going to the Solomon pond mall and some of the fields were still really flooded 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still think March has nice potential, but I understand the sentiment and don't blame you. Well, to be fair…we still Have 3.5 weeks left of January, and a whole month of February before we even get to March. And I’m just as irritated with this BS as anybody, and I’m not sensing anything good in the near future, but there is still a huge chunk of winter(the majority of it actually) left to play out. We may not make average(but it’s certainly not all that impossible to do with the time we have left in SNE), but it feels like a rat that’s for sure at the moment. And average snow seems far off at this moment. Like others have said….just give us one major storm, and then let it Rat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 24 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: But at least Dec 2000 was cold and snowy unlike Dec 2022. to an extent... certainly colder on the whole... the millennium snow got the interior, particularly the elevated interior, but Boston proper may have taken a goose egg for the month IIRC, and I think there was at least one other big rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 If we’re seriously looking at 1/20 before a favorable pattern sets in on the models with nothing so far I think it’s time to throw in the towel the next couple years. 2024-2025 has big potential though, we are expected to get a strong Nino next year so we can punt that winter, but following a strong nino is often a strong nina. Strong Ninas after a big nino can be really good due to the left over active stj combined with an active northern branch, leading to multiple big storms. But yeah, that’s the main reason why I had a huge melt, I strongly believe next year will rat due to a strong to super El Niño. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, George001 said: If we’re seriously looking at 1/20 before a favorable pattern sets in on the models with nothing so far I think it’s time to throw in the towel the next couple years. 2024-2025 has big potential though, we are expected to get a strong Nino next year so we can punt that winter, but following a strong nino is often a strong nina. Strong Ninas after a big nino can be really good due to the left over active stj combined with an active northern branch, leading to multiple big storms. There is no reason at all to really believe anything like that. I mean, we can’t tell what two weeks from now might do, let alone a year, and now two years? This is quite silly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, radarman said: to an extent... certainly colder on the whole... the millennium snow got the interior, particularly the elevated interior, but Boston proper may have taken a goose egg for the month IIRC, and I think there was at least one other big rainstorm. That Jan 2001 pattern you showed highlights how subtle differences can make a large impact on sensible wx. Jan 2001 wasn’t cold but it wasn’t warm either. The pacific wasn’t quite as hostile. That ridging in Canada was displaced a little west too. I think Jan ‘87 was somewhat similar as well. Big ridge over Canada but we weren’t torching because we had some subtle features a bit more favorable in both ATL and PAC. The first 3 weeks of Jan ‘87 were actually semi-mild but we just got crushed with snow because the storm track was favorable. We lived in that +2 to +3 temp departure zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every winter that starts late .. it’s the worry. When I sense Dec is at risk and then lost.. that’s already a huge negative to overcome. And then you hit Jan 15 and that’s lost. You just don’t come back from that . This is exactly why I can’t stand the Climo posts in December. It’s bullshit. Most Times you lose Dec thru Jan 15 .. you lose winter Look at last winter. It was crap until we got into those for a few weeks of February where it was pretty awesome. I doubt highly that you wouldn't jump back on the bandwagon if we were together. Great couple of weeks of some good winter. Sucks balls, but if we can get a few weeks at least of a solid winter season or one big storm, that would make it up for all of us I think. And I think you'll be part of that group too, like the rest of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, George001 said: If we’re seriously looking at 1/20 before a favorable pattern sets in on the models with nothing so far I think it’s time to throw in the towel the next couple years. 2024-2025 has big potential though, we are expected to get a strong Nino next year so we can punt that winter, but following a strong nino is often a strong nina. Strong Ninas after a big nino can be really good due to the left over active stj combined with an active northern branch, leading to multiple big storms. But yeah, that’s the main reason why I had a huge melt, I strongly believe next year will rat due to a strong to super El Niño. Next winter will be good assuming a healthy Nino. Its not going to be a super event. Take a time out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Next winter will be good assuming a healthy Nino. Its not going to be a super event. Take a time out. Even moderate to strong is bad for my area. If it stays weak then I’ll be on board for a big winter in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, George001 said: Even moderate to strong is bad for my area. If it stays weak then I’ll be on board for a big winter in New England. 1991-1993 was pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 I really think what makes things worse is we can't even really buy light snow events...forget getting big winter storms. I don't know the statistics on this, but our years which are considered above-average is it due to big storms, a ton of smaller storms, or a combination of both? But we can't even buy several 2-4'' events. We can't even get snow flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 34 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: Was euro as bad as cmc for up here at 12z?? Id take that gfs thump, showers, back end but I don’t know how I feel about trusting gfs 6 days out this winter. . It was warm but not nearly the QPF. Probably a flip to snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, George001 said: Even moderate to strong is bad for my area. If it stays weak then I’ll be on board for a big winter in New England. Moderate is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Posted this in the ENSO thread, but with talk of Nino this is the different flavors we can get during Nino's in terms of temps. Plenty more of composites to come 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, George001 said: Even moderate to strong is bad for my area. If it stays weak then I’ll be on board for a big winter in New England. It depends on structure. Next winter is likely to be west biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Moderate is fine. Even strong is...like 1.6 or 1.7 ONI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 That would be a pretty good frontender on the 18z GFS before a flip verbatim. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: That would be a pretty good frontender on the 18z GFS before a flip verbatim. High pressure better on That run that a damn good run for ski resorts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Doesn’t even get above freezing here. Thump of snow to IP/ZR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: High pressure better on That run That high was 1028 mb, Allowed the SLP to get a little further east before coming north, Like i said earlier, I think someone is going to get crushed with this if we can hold on to some cold, Its going to be a juicy system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Tblizz saved 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 GFS trolling taunton with 1-2ft in the mtns. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: That would be a pretty good frontender on the 18z GFS before a flip verbatim. Looks a little colder too overall? Which really helps NNE. Still way too warm in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 That would get snowmobile country back in business, Northern Maine would be 24"+ verbatim on this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Can’t really have time to analyze it, but it looked like less Northern stream influence? That might be a good thing so it doesn’t dig to the gulf coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 High pressure better on That run that a damn good run for ski resorts F yeah…we have the gfs with a season saver and the cmc with a season ender.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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