Snowcrazed71 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not beating myself up, but it is what it is. You have to admit when you're wrong. I truly wouldn't. Your forecasts should have worked out better than it did. There were things at play beyond any model output. Plus... No one has mentioned much about the volcanic blast from last January ( which was one of the biggest in recent history ). I think that really played havoc on the entire world ( both hemispheres ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we’ll actually get that look to materialize. I hate being negative lol. It's not negative, it's realistic. Maybe the realistic objective take is rectal plaque - sometimes reality bends over barrels. And that's just it. Tough. Heh...late to the party today. But I figured a steady stream of grousing and commiseration therapy going on when I saw the overnight guidance...well, honestly? the guidance starting some 3..4 days ago. Anyway, haven't been let down on that "forecast" lol. We've been fighting a first week of April climatological look for a week man. I posted a statement some 5 days ago, that this reminds me of a spring modeled look. Everything contained, from modeling this last ordeal to this next thing coming, all the way out to the synopsis of the hemisphere, looks and behaves in guidance... like April 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 it's not a perfect match but there are a few similarities to our last 3rd year nina Jan. I'll accept the ing in advance. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Actually there were some decent winters mixed in the 80s to break up the monotony 2020-2021 was a pretty good winter at least here. I was above normal with 2 storms over a foot and another around 10”. The 80s basically had 2 really good winters (81-82 and 86-87) and 2 half-decent winters (83-84 and 87-88)..the rest were just smoking hot turds shoveled into our mouths. We didn’t have a really high-end winter though that decade like we typically have other decades….it was modest upside with a shit ton of downside. The 80s did have some really good spring storms though…April ‘82, Mar ‘84 and Apr ‘87 come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Very easy forecast this month, after we used up all the cold with the PV swinging in and out, the PAC jet took over fueled by the warm blob over the northern PAC. Persistence is the forecast for the foreseeable future. The blocking prevented a torch for December, without it we would be looking at the warmest DJF in modern history 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's not negative, it's realistic. Maybe the realistic objective take is rectal plaque - sometimes reality bends over barrels. And that's just it. Tough. Heh...late to the party today. But I figured a steady stream of grousing and commiseration therapy going on when I saw the overnight guidance...well, honestly? the guidance starting some 3..4 days ago. Anyway, haven't been let down on that "forecast" lol. We've been fighting a first week of April climatological look for a week man. I posted a statement some 5 days ago, that this reminds me of a spring modeled look. Everything contained, from modeling this last ordeal to this next thing coming, all the way out to the synopsis of the hemisphere, looks and behaves in guidance... like April 7. Insert X-Files quote…”I want to believe..” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Insert X-Files quote…”I want to believe..” 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Insert X-Files quote…”I want to believe..” can you post a global look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: can you post a global look? The biggest views are nrn and srn hemi views. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 I doubt anyone would have thought this winter would turn out to be a dud so far. We still have 2 months left so hopefully we get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Insert X-Files quote…”I want to believe..” No cold air though. Canada flooded with warmth, no polar source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Also ... ( sounds like self promotion but I'm really not after that - ) ... I mentioned a week or so ago that there is almost no discernible behavior in the modeled telecon spreads at the time, that necessitates an 'index' scaled correction event. That's still the case. The heavily concerted PNA is actually in process of falling negative during this next thing. It's really almost impossible to create a storm that is like what some of those runs over the last week, looked like, without the restoring/mass-field perturbation model for how/why ( physically) 'big storms' are created. Plus, on top of that ...we are dealing with paltry ambient gradient circumstance everywhere below about 55 N ...from N of Hawaii to NS. I was thinking yesterday ...this may turn out to have been a red herring 'model magnification' dupe storm, all along. Kind of like the 12th - remember that? Sure enough...the model runs since yesterday seem to be trying to devolve the whole thing. Still a long way to go... but a non-event in a way is a morality victory. Because it's not like we're "missing" an opportunity that doesn't really exist, given the former outcome. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: No cold air though. Canada flooded with warmth, no polar source. Arctic source just getting established on that frame. See the huge ridge going up into AK. If you rolled that forward another few days you’d see a lot more cold advecting down into the conus. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: No cold air though. Canada flooded with warmth, no polar source. I wouldn’t worry about that in VT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Arctic source just getting established on that frame. See the huge ridge going up into AK. If you rolled that forward another few days you’d see a lot more cold advecting down into the conus. Yeah it’s about to get cold verbatim. But again, in VT you don’t need -10 departures either lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 If we get to the 20th and things still look like crap and we have to kick the can to Feb, I'm going to call it on winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s about to get cold verbatim. But again, in VT you don’t need -10 departures either lol. Yeah you just need to avoid +10 (which we aren’t doing in the upcoming storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 34 minutes ago, radarman said: it's not a perfect match but there are a few similarities to our last 3rd year nina Jan. I'll accept the ing in advance. But at least Dec 2000 was cold and snowy unlike Dec 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Didn't realize the sun sets at 3:15 now. Let's get some goddamn sun in here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Insert X-Files quote…”I want to believe..” Would be nice. We won’t be holding our breath. Most likely just a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Actually there were some decent winters mixed in the 80s to break up the monotony 86-87 will be on the list next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Looking back at December I really think it was the Arctic domain that screwed us more then anything. There was so much excitement for blocking and a negative NAO, but I think the structure and placement of the anomalies hurt us. I think if we had seen these anomalies farther to the north and east we would have been smoked the second half of the month. I guess you could argue having the height anomalies in the GoA farther east too. But look at the 10-20 and then 20-25. If that block is farther east the trough axis is shifted east and more favorable for us. IIRC, there seems to be a lot of optimism for a west-based NAO block, but IMO, an east-based is what we really want. When you get west-based (and displaced south) with a strong anomaly, you're playing with serious fire and risking higher height anomalies extending into our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Arctic source just getting established on that frame. See the huge ridge going up into AK. If you rolled that forward another few days you’d see a lot more cold advecting down into the conus. Watch it pull a Feb 2021... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I missed January...no way to equivocate on that. February I had as a mild month, so I would need the big March to come through and maybe some luck in Feb. Bail on the winter man . The book has been written Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Would be nice. We won’t be holding our breath. Most likely just a tease. This is what really intrigues me with long-range. For the past 3 winters now, we have seen models (ensembles) go bonkers with these pattern configurations in the medium-to-long range, but we never get there. There has got to be something with the physics of the models in these atmospheric states in which the calculations of the physics just go to this output. So either something isn't being handled right within the models, some equation is way off, or heck, maybe there is too much weight being placed on one variable or a magnitude of order is off. This is just me thinking incorrectly out loud but it's been a constant theme these past 3 winters so there has to be a reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Bail on the winter man . The book has been written I still think March has nice potential, but I understand the sentiment and don't blame you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The flip around or just after 1/20 will need to be real…otherwise we’re simply just running out of time to make up the climo deficit if we push it back another 2-3 weeks. We’re also going to be fighting February Niña climo unless we get something to disrupt it. Every winter that starts late .. it’s the worry. When I sense Dec is at risk and then lost.. that’s already a huge negative to overcome. And then you hit Jan 15 and that’s lost. You just don’t come back from that . This is exactly why I can’t stand the Climo posts in December. It’s bullshit. Most Times you lose Dec thru Jan 15 .. you lose winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Bail on the winter man . The book has been written It's been impressive so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still think March has nice potential, but I understand the sentiment and don't blame you. I don't think it's totally wrong to hold out for March. I mean sure the odds historically aren't great, but they aren't zero. You never know what can really happen moving through February and into March. Something could occur that could totally shake the pattern and we've seen that happen before. Again, the probability is very low, but not zero and that's all that really counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Is it February yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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