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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still think we see that flip. I won't buy this year ratting until it actually does.

The flip around or just after 1/20 will need to be real…otherwise we’re simply just running out of time to make up the climo deficit if we push it back another 2-3 weeks. We’re also going to be fighting February Niña climo unless we get something to disrupt it. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The flip around or just after 1/20 will need to be real…otherwise we’re simply just running out of time to make up the climo deficit if we push it back another 2-3 weeks. We’re also going to be fighting February Niña climo unless we get something to disrupt it. 

Alot of my snowfall numbers are attainable just through a great March...run into one in Feb, and boom.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The flip around or just after 1/20 will need to be real…otherwise we’re simply just running out of time to make up the climo deficit if we push it back another 2-3 weeks. We’re also going to be fighting February Niña climo unless we get something to disrupt it. 

Personally I feel that after next week we’re screwed, but that’s me. I’m not banking on voodoo SSWs and as you said, we’re fighting Nina climo. 

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35 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

At this point... I'd just take one big storm. It's just the waiting game that sucks.

The weather has been about as much fun as sorting socks….  It’s often an interesting (and basically free) way to spend time.   I’m not expecting a 2015 redux but hopefully at least one good event will come to pass

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Personally I feel that after next week we’re screwed, but that’s me. I’m not banking on voodoo SSWs and as you said, we’re fighting Nina climo. 

I missed January...no way to equivocate on that. February I had as a mild month, so I would need the big March to come through and maybe some luck in Feb.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I missed January...no way to equivocate on that. February I had as a mild month, so I would need the big March to come through and maybe some luck in Feb.

Well I hope you’re right. This month has been comical….I honestly don’t even know how you can beat yourself up over it. Look at the past 24 hours.  That’s nuts. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is totally the 80s if we rat this year...that would be five consecutive well below climo snowfall years. Can finally shut up the lord of regression once and for all.

80s at least had some brutal cold in between cutters etc. This is just pure dog shit.

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Personally I feel that after next week we’re screwed, but that’s me. I’m not banking on voodoo SSWs and as you said, we’re fighting Nina climo. 

Yeah I’m skeptical on the pattern getting favorable after 1/20 like guidance tries to show. Maybe it will be correct but the PAC hasn’t really cooperated all winter. We had the amazing Atlantic blocking that we somehow whiffed on any decent storm and any time guidance has tried to get the pacific more favorable, it is either very fleeting or never materializes. 
 

Assuming no flip to a great pattern, I’ll just be rooting to try and run into one monster storm this winter. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

80s at least had some brutal cold in between cutters etc. This is just pure dog shit.

It will be interesting to read a post analysis about this winter when it is time. I didn’t think there was many bad signals to start December that it would be this bad. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

80s at least had some brutal cold in between cutters etc. This is just pure dog shit.

I'd take this over the 80s.

If you want to try to point ot one thing aside from just bad luck, I don't think we have been the degree of poleward Aleutian ridging that I expect from an eastward titling la nina this year.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd take this over the 80s.

If you want to try to point ot one thing aside from just bad luck, I don't think we have been the degree of poleward Aleutian ridging that I expect from an eastward titling la nina this year.

This is like living in a North Carolina swamp. Just 40s, brown ground, and mud. I loathe it. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd take this over the 80s.

If you want to try to point ot one thing aside from just bad luck, I don't think we have been the degree of poleward Aleutian ridging that I expect from an eastward titling la nina this year.

We haven’t had any Aleutian ridging in a while…it’s been El Niño out there recently. :lol:
 

I’m sure a flat Aleutian ridge will show up just in time for February to give us a classic Niña February with a stout SE ridge…. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m skeptical on the pattern getting favorable after 1/20 like guidance tries to show. Maybe it will be correct but the PAC hasn’t really cooperated all winter. We had the amazing Atlantic blocking that we somehow whiffed on any decent storm and any time guidance has tried to get the pacific more favorable, it is either very fleeting or never materializes. 
 

Assuming no flip to a great pattern, I’ll just be rooting to try and run into one monster storm this winter. 

Maybe we’ll actually get that look to materialize.  I hate being negative lol. 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m skeptical on the pattern getting favorable after 1/20 like guidance tries to show. Maybe it will be correct but the PAC hasn’t really cooperated all winter. We had the amazing Atlantic blocking that we somehow whiffed on any decent storm and any time guidance has tried to get the pacific more favorable, it is either very fleeting or never materializes. 
 

Assuming no flip to a great pattern, I’ll just be rooting to try and run into one monster storm this winter. 

God ...the only thing more ad nauseam than this weather is that bold, right there.  

It's not your fault, Really, Will. I don't blame you for saying it - it is what it is if indeed that is what the guidance suggests. But ...It's always 'after the 20th' this year.  In fact ( sort of related to what you and Scott were just bemoaning - ), most years that under perform winter enthusiasm, do that. They always push off.  

so to speak.   

 

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

God ...the only thing more ad nauseam than this weather is that bold, right there.  

It's not your fault, Really, Will. I don't blame you saying it - it is what it is if indeed that is what the guidance suggests. But ...It's always 'after the 20th' this year.  In fact ( sort of related to what you and Scott were just bemoaning - ), most years that under perform winter enthusiasm, do that. They always push off.  

so to speak.   

 

 

We’ll there was a reason I said I was skeptical….:lmao:

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