Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still think we see that flip. I won't buy this year ratting until it actually does.

The flip around or just after 1/20 will need to be real…otherwise we’re simply just running out of time to make up the climo deficit if we push it back another 2-3 weeks. We’re also going to be fighting February Niña climo unless we get something to disrupt it. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The flip around or just after 1/20 will need to be real…otherwise we’re simply just running out of time to make up the climo deficit if we push it back another 2-3 weeks. We’re also going to be fighting February Niña climo unless we get something to disrupt it. 

Alot of my snowfall numbers are attainable just through a great March...run into one in Feb, and boom.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The flip around or just after 1/20 will need to be real…otherwise we’re simply just running out of time to make up the climo deficit if we push it back another 2-3 weeks. We’re also going to be fighting February Niña climo unless we get something to disrupt it. 

Personally I feel that after next week we’re screwed, but that’s me. I’m not banking on voodoo SSWs and as you said, we’re fighting Nina climo. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

At this point... I'd just take one big storm. It's just the waiting game that sucks.

The weather has been about as much fun as sorting socks….  It’s often an interesting (and basically free) way to spend time.   I’m not expecting a 2015 redux but hopefully at least one good event will come to pass

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Personally I feel that after next week we’re screwed, but that’s me. I’m not banking on voodoo SSWs and as you said, we’re fighting Nina climo. 

I missed January...no way to equivocate on that. February I had as a mild month, so I would need the big March to come through and maybe some luck in Feb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I missed January...no way to equivocate on that. February I had as a mild month, so I would need the big March to come through and maybe some luck in Feb.

Well I hope you’re right. This month has been comical….I honestly don’t even know how you can beat yourself up over it. Look at the past 24 hours.  That’s nuts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is totally the 80s if we rat this year...that would be five consecutive well below climo snowfall years. Can finally shut up the lord of regression once and for all.

80s at least had some brutal cold in between cutters etc. This is just pure dog shit.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Personally I feel that after next week we’re screwed, but that’s me. I’m not banking on voodoo SSWs and as you said, we’re fighting Nina climo. 

Yeah I’m skeptical on the pattern getting favorable after 1/20 like guidance tries to show. Maybe it will be correct but the PAC hasn’t really cooperated all winter. We had the amazing Atlantic blocking that we somehow whiffed on any decent storm and any time guidance has tried to get the pacific more favorable, it is either very fleeting or never materializes. 
 

Assuming no flip to a great pattern, I’ll just be rooting to try and run into one monster storm this winter. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CoastalWx said:

80s at least had some brutal cold in between cutters etc. This is just pure dog shit.

It will be interesting to read a post analysis about this winter when it is time. I didn’t think there was many bad signals to start December that it would be this bad. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

80s at least had some brutal cold in between cutters etc. This is just pure dog shit.

I'd take this over the 80s.

If you want to try to point ot one thing aside from just bad luck, I don't think we have been the degree of poleward Aleutian ridging that I expect from an eastward titling la nina this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd take this over the 80s.

If you want to try to point ot one thing aside from just bad luck, I don't think we have been the degree of poleward Aleutian ridging that I expect from an eastward titling la nina this year.

This is like living in a North Carolina swamp. Just 40s, brown ground, and mud. I loathe it. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd take this over the 80s.

If you want to try to point ot one thing aside from just bad luck, I don't think we have been the degree of poleward Aleutian ridging that I expect from an eastward titling la nina this year.

We haven’t had any Aleutian ridging in a while…it’s been El Niño out there recently. :lol:
 

I’m sure a flat Aleutian ridge will show up just in time for February to give us a classic Niña February with a stout SE ridge…. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m skeptical on the pattern getting favorable after 1/20 like guidance tries to show. Maybe it will be correct but the PAC hasn’t really cooperated all winter. We had the amazing Atlantic blocking that we somehow whiffed on any decent storm and any time guidance has tried to get the pacific more favorable, it is either very fleeting or never materializes. 
 

Assuming no flip to a great pattern, I’ll just be rooting to try and run into one monster storm this winter. 

Maybe we’ll actually get that look to materialize.  I hate being negative lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m skeptical on the pattern getting favorable after 1/20 like guidance tries to show. Maybe it will be correct but the PAC hasn’t really cooperated all winter. We had the amazing Atlantic blocking that we somehow whiffed on any decent storm and any time guidance has tried to get the pacific more favorable, it is either very fleeting or never materializes. 
 

Assuming no flip to a great pattern, I’ll just be rooting to try and run into one monster storm this winter. 

God ...the only thing more ad nauseam than this weather is that bold, right there.  

It's not your fault, Really, Will. I don't blame you for saying it - it is what it is if indeed that is what the guidance suggests. But ...It's always 'after the 20th' this year.  In fact ( sort of related to what you and Scott were just bemoaning - ), most years that under perform winter enthusiasm, do that. They always push off.  

so to speak.   

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

God ...the only thing more ad nauseam than this weather is that bold, right there.  

It's not your fault, Really, Will. I don't blame you saying it - it is what it is if indeed that is what the guidance suggests. But ...It's always 'after the 20th' this year.  In fact ( sort of related to what you and Scott were just bemoaning - ), most years that under perform winter enthusiasm, do that. They always push off.  

so to speak.   

 

 

We’ll there was a reason I said I was skeptical….:lmao:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...