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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS: A storm strengthening 10mb in 24 hours is for from a bomb or strong storm. 
 

the CMC has a stronger storm, However it cuts and stalls drawing on easterly air to New England, while the CCB drops heavy snow in PA . 

You mentioned no wind before. That's one helluva 925 jet

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The PV lobe didn’t just disappear from euro, it also got weaker on the other guidance that still has it. It’s more like a little closed system rather than a larger portion of the TPV swinging southwest which is why the confluence/airmass doesn’t hold up at all. Just slides right out of the picture. 
 

In those solutions a couple days ago that had a real airmass, you had this big lobe swinging around the southwest side and creating an arctic high that held pretty stout. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The PV lobe didn’t just disappear from euro, it also got weaker on the other guidance that still has it. It’s more like a little closed system rather than a larger portion of the TPV swinging southwest which is why the confluence/airmass doesn’t hold up at all. Just slides right out of the picture. 
 

In those solutions a couple days ago that had a real airmass, you had this big lobe swinging around the southwest side and creating an arctic high that held pretty stout. 

LOL remember those MA special solutions because of that? 

But that’s a good summary of what happened. This is one of those setups that need that strong confluence as this grabs that airmass from the south and digs. PWAT special. No shortage of QPF.

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