Snowcrazed71 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Not sure I'm allowed to post this.. but borrowed this from another forum. All three ensembles have a similar look for next weekend. Hope this can hold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: Flying Pond looked okay on Wednesday - no one fishing but saw a number of auger holes made since the big deluge. Will try there tomorrow, first ice fishing since March 2021 thanks to the 21-22 A-fib experience. Other than the Fort Kent years, where one needs a power auger, snowmobile and ice shack (I'm 0-for-3), I've never skipped an ice fishing season since I was about 10. Light SN since 9, about 2/3 inch new. Doesn't take much to pretty up the woods. I sell to many of the bait dealers across the state and the news i'm hearing is not good on the larger lakes statewide and some ponds in SME 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Not sure I'm allowed to post this.. but borrowed this from another forum. All three ensembles have a similar look for next weekend. Hope this can hold. Yes .. all three showing retreating high and rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I hope all the major cities get less than 5 inches this winter. This winter is a disaster Next winter too! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, 512high said: What I find intresting is 12/18 hrs ago things looked promising and vanish or down the drain (no pun intended ) is it "noise" these models are seeing and may correct back in favor the next 24 hrs? I know we’re all jaded because the Euro/EPS debacle today mirrors the epic failure in December, but the other guidance went in the opposite direction in the same suite. I do think it’s best to wait and see what the other guidance does at 500mb the next day or so before sounding alarms and evacuating the thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I sell to many of the bait dealers across the state and the news i'm hearing is not good on the larger lakes statewide and some ponds in SME My Chesterville source has the live bait sign out, and Flying Pond isn't all that deep and it's tucked into the hills, so the ice probably catches there earlier than places like Parker Pond or the Belgrades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yes .. all three showing retreating high and rain . That's not what they're showing. What they're showing is the storm going off the coast. The whole high pressure system will be worked out as we get closer. Don't be so bitter because you didn't get your snow today 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: That's not what they're showing. What they're showing is the storm going off the coast. The whole high pressure system will be worked out as we get closer. Don't be so bitter because you didn't get your snow today Except they don’t .. and I did Other than that carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: That's not what they're showing. What they're showing is the storm going off the coast. The whole high pressure system will be worked out as we get closer. Don't be so bitter because you didn't get your snow today It’s mild but I think will work well inland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The Euro OP was a horrible run but the EPS still looks great. Low is offshore 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Except they don’t .. and I did Other than that carry on You're the biggest child on here. Not even sure why I responded to you. You need to grow up man. Other than that, have a great day ( and stock up on some tissues ). 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 57 minutes ago, Hazey said: I think folks need to start taking a changing climate into account. Or more than they are now. There is a bigger reason why this winter is a non starter. Hopefully someone will drill down in the off season and find it. It's painful to think that this is just the beginning of our rat winters, but it might be. Globally, December was dead-nuts normal using the last 30 years as a benchmark....and below normal wrt the last decade. It's us, we suck! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, George001 said: The Euro OP was a horrible run but the EPS still looks great. Low is offshore Low placement is rather meaningless man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I don’t think climate change has anything to do with model guidance shitting the bed on synoptic setups. There’s no secret “climate change parameter” in the models. Climate change doesn’t magically make the laws of physics and thermodynamics change. The model guidance is simply ingesting data and then running out the equations in time. La Niña can often be a b**ch on model guidance and that is probably partially the reason we’re seeing these swings. Some of it just random variance too going against us. When models trend favorable in medium range, we aren’t usually saying “I can’t believe how bad the models are that they all of the sudden trended much better with the confluence!” 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Low placement is rather meaningless man. That’s not what I was told when I said it can snow east of the low. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, George001 said: That’s not what I was told when I said it can snow east of the low. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, George001 said: That’s not what I was told when I said it can snow east of the low. That’s different. You can have a nice looking low along the BM in Jan and it can rain on the N and NW side but you’ll never ever snow in Boston if the low whips into Whiteface NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Hazey said: I think folks need to start taking a changing climate into account. Or more than they are now. There is a bigger reason why this winter is a non starter. Hopefully someone will drill down in the off season and find it. It's painful to think that this is just the beginning of our rat winters, but it might be. It is an absolute banner winter out west though. Lake Tahoe, Alta/Jackson, Steamboat, etc. When I think climate change, I think lack of snows east and west. To me when the Sierra to Wasatch to Tetons to Rockies are having absolutely ridiculous seasons to date snowfall wise, that’s just a persistent trough being situated in the wrong place. Its the classic snowy west and not snowy east… trough/ridge combo. There is a ying to our yang. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s different. You can have a nice looking low along the BM in Jan and it can rain on the N and NW side but you’ll never ever snow in Boston if the low whips into Whiteface NY. How come it can rain well NW of the low in mid winter yet if the low goes even the slightest bit NW of us it’s always rain? It feels like everything has to be perfect to get snow now. Climate change is accelerating rapidly, when it gets cold it’s slightly below normal, and when it gets mild it’s record warmth. The 500mb doesn’t even look terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 At least we're gaining daylight (albeit slowly) in the late afternoon. I don't remember who I was talking to about this a few weeks back, but one thing I've noticed as I get older is how much these early sunsets really affect my mood. The only time when they're fun is when it's snowing (like a really good storm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It is an absolute banner winter out west though. Lake Tahoe, Alta/Jackson, Steamboat, etc. When I think climate change, I think lack of snows east and west. To me when the Sierra to Wasatch to Tetons to Rockies are having absolutely ridiculous seasons to date snowfall wise, that’s just a trough being situated in the wrong place. Its the classic snowy west and not snowy east… trough/ridge combo. There is a ying to our yang. Blaming climate change for very unfavorable H5 trends is every bit as dumb as those scoffing at the idea of global warming in Feb 2015. I think a better argument is during marginal events like today, when .5 - 1 degree colder would have made for a nice event. But guidance hallucinating a PV lobe into existence that turn out not to be there has nothing to do with climate change. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: At least we're gaining daylight (albeit slowly) in the late afternoon. I don't remember who I was talking to about this a few weeks back, but one thing I've noticed as I get older is how much these early sunsets really affect my mood. The only time when they're fun is when it's snowing (like a really good storm). I already have my fantasy baseball book for 2023, so if this fails, I'll turn to my keeper decisions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, George001 said: How come it can rain well NW of the low in mid winter yet if the low goes even the slightest bit NW of us it’s always rain? It feels like everything has to be perfect to get snow now. Climate change is accelerating rapidly, when it gets cold it’s slightly below normal, and when it gets mild it’s record warmth. The 500mb doesn’t even look terrible. You need cold air around for it to snow. I this thing cute off from the polar jet, we lose that connection to tap cold air. We are left with a Spring cutoff low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Be curious to see what the analog correlations are with crappy winters in New England and disaster winters like they are having in European Alps right now. I'm going to Krakow tomorrow and I was really hoping for that eastern european winter vibe but it is like cloudy, misty 43/35. Uggghh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It is an absolute banner winter out west though. Lake Tahoe, Alta/Jackson, Steamboat, etc. When I think climate change, I think lack of snows east and west. To me when the Sierra to Wasatch to Tetons to Rockies are having absolutely ridiculous seasons to date snowfall wise, that’s just a persistent trough being situated in the wrong place. Its the classic snowy west and not snowy east… trough/ridge combo. There is a ying to our yang. what is changing is the temperatures. it is getting slowly and steadily warmer. precip totals, incl snow, are a different matter. But it is warmer now, on average than it was a couple/few/several/100 decades ago, on average over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I'm going to Krakow tomorrow and I was really hoping for that eastern european winter vibe but it is like cloudy, misty 43/35. Uggghh. So jelly. Love that city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Blaming climate change for very unfavorable H5 trends is every bit as dumb as those scoffing at the idea of global warming in Feb 2015. I think a better argument is during marginal events like today, when .5 - 1 degree colder would have made for a nice event. But guidance hallucinating a PV lobe into existence that turn out not to be there has nothing to to with climate change. Well it feels like everything has to be perfect just to get slightly below normal. Then when the 500 mb looks slightly unfavorable we get record warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So jelly. Love that city. never been there. please pm me with what I should see/do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I’ve totally checked out this winter after X Mas fail. All about my New York Rangers and Giants - Red Sox had about as a winter as their home town so I’m checking out from them as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Wish I were in Tahoe!!! Epicosity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now