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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A few days ago, I honestly deep down thought one of these would work out. Oye. Yeah I know...still time...but I don't like this turn of events. 

at least the ECMWF is on a bit of an island as to how it’s handling the confluence? just crazy to see it lose the 50/50 like that completely in a day

it’s usually much more consistent than that

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A few days ago, I honestly deep down thought one of these would work out. Oye. Yeah I know...still time...but I don't like this turn of events. 

It was at about this range we were getting excited about the pre Xmas deal, and then the OP GEM came out with that PV-west bombshell, and everything followed it. Hopefully everything follows the OP GEM again lol

I just don't believe that this season will do that badly until it actually happens. I still feel like it will end up snowy, but admittedly.....just a guess/hunch. I am not trying to say that the rainy deal without the PV can't happen.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think to this point it has been a lot Of hyperbole, but if we miss this one, I think this season is in a lot of trouble 

I mean sure…the longer you go the more of the season you’re punting. You start turning into last year’s Dolphins…can still have a nice finish, but the season as a whole winds up disappointing. There’s a lot of time to go though…just hope we get a nice wintry stretch to enjoy.

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On 1/2/2023 at 12:08 PM, dendrite said:

press 5 to hear Ray's winter forecast

press 6 to hear Ray melt about the pattern and stress over his forecast

press 7 to hear Ray reassure himself that this is all going according to plan

press 8 to hear Ray flush his forecast down the toilet as it rains on Jan 15

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

50F dews common here.  1/3 was previous day for them.  Had them on 12/31 and 1/1

I mean we’ve had months up here where the temp never gets above freezing or only for like a day and it’s usually one of those pre-WINDEX setups. We’re only supposed to pull off 50° dews in the cuttiest of the cutters. No problemo lately though. 

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's odd that if you recall the last huge signal we had in late December, we had models show a huge blizzard and that flipped in like 2 OP runs to shit and that was it.  This is too eerily similar to that.  Still think models are struggling with the PAC.

Models f**king up the PAC killed December....they still suck at handling the PAC, but this time, now they are mucking up the Atlantic where our confluence was coming from.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

press 8 to hear Ray flush his forecast down the toilet as it rains on Jan 15

Hey I salute you. There’s too much volatility and chaos for me to get into the seasonal forecasting, but I respect those who try. That’s how we further the science on everything.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hey I salute you. There’s too much volatility and chaos for me to get into the seasonal forecasting, but I respect those who try. That’s how we further the science on everything.

I thought it was hilarious....well done. But for those who think I do that without fail....watch if this bitch rains. At that point it will be time to admit that things have not gone according to plan. You can't go down with a sinking ship and not admit your whiffs.

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was at about this range we were getting excited about the pre Xmas deal, and then the OP GEM came out with that PV-west bombshell, and everything followed it. Hopefully everything follows the OP GEM again lol

I just don't believe that this season will do that badly until it actually happens. I still feel like it will end up snowy, but admittedly.....just a guess/hunch. I am not trying to say that the rainy deal without the PV can't happen.

 

15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's odd that if you recall the last huge signal we had in late December, we had models show a huge blizzard and that flipped in like 2 OP runs to shit and that was it.  This is too eerily similar to that.  Still think models are struggling with the PAC.

I said these things this morning .  Exact same set up with regard to the days of the week, which just two weeks ago today the xmas storm went to dung on Friday the 23rd. Now this just did the same thing in a Friday. The irony. 
 

The only difference as Ray mentioned, was that it was the Canadian that led the way with the dung look, and it was right. Now it’s the European. 
 

 

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