January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wild January stats from my weather station. The coldest high temperature was 34 degrees this month. A whopping 17/24 days had a high of 40+ and only 7/24 days made it into the 20s at night. 5.78” of rain .4” of snow. 

It’s absolutely obscene. One of the worst Januaries I can recall. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s absolutely obscene. One of the worst Januaries I can recall. 

Here's the good thing, the chances of it being worse next year are super slim. So we can only go up up ( well, colder lol ) from here

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Here's the good thing, the chances of it being worse next year are super slim. So we can only go up up ( well, colder lol ) from here

That’s one way to look at it, and probably the right way, but we keep doing blowtorch months during winters. 

[weathafella]

If we can keep next year’s promised nino from reaching big heights I can’t see a torch month in the heart of winter.   Then again Kent Hadley used to hit ph homers back in the day....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s absolutely obscene. One of the worst Januaries I can recall. 

I think I had a January like this growing up in CNJ back in the 80s which is fitting because we keep joking we are reliving the 80s. 
 

It’s a brutal stretch for winter lovers though, no doubt, but we’ll bounce back at some point with stretches future generations of weenies will wish for at their gtg’s. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think I had a January like this growing up in CNJ back in the 80s which is fitting because we keep joking we are reliving the 80s. 
 

It’s a brutal stretch for winter lovers though, no doubt, but we’ll bounce back at some point with stretches future generations of weenies will wish for at their gtg’s. 

This year will end it. No way next season sucks, unless it remains neutral, which I doubt.

[brooklynwx99]

this is great from a synoptic perspective

split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is great from a synoptic perspective

split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning

That looks like a high risk of cutters 

[greenmtnwx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That looks like a high risk of cutters 

Agree Jerry, that is positive nao SE ridge cutter city potential. 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That looks like a high risk of cutters 

you risk cutters in like 90% of patterns though. this is a good to great pattern for you guys depending on latitude, the source region is ice cold and the split flow should allow for southern stream waves to clash with the cold airmass. active with lots of cold high pressure nearby often leads to success

but yes, this is not a "loaded" pattern like what we'd see with a west-based -NAO or a full latitude -EPO/+PNA

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

That looks like a high risk of cutters 

On that map I’d say the risk is fairly low. PV is pretty far southeast and heights out west aren’t that low. Prior to that though, the risk is higher with lower heights out west….so 1/30-2/1 could be a cutter but it could also be a a snowier solution depending on all the shortwave nuances we can’t predict yet. 

[Cold Miser]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is great from a synoptic perspective

split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning

Great...The ole' rotting banana look.

[qg_omega]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is great from a synoptic perspective

split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning

Big cutter pattern for the coast, SE ridge under modeled all winter

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you risk cutters in like 90% of patterns though. this is a good to great pattern for you guys depending on latitude, the source region is ice cold and the split flow should allow for southern stream waves to clash with the cold airmass. active with lots of cold high pressure nearby often leads to success

but yes, this is not a "loaded" pattern like what we'd see with a west-based -NAO or a full latitude -EPO/+PNA

We had the loaded pattern..got us nowhere, as we know nothing is guaranteed. I’ll take that look though, and run with it. Active with lots of cold nearby.  Let’s roll the dice boys. We can’t do any worse in SNE than what we’ve done, and are in now, so absolutely nothing to lose.  We take and are happy. 

[George001]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This year will end it. No way next season sucks, unless it remains neutral, which I doubt.

Eh we also gotta avoid strong or super nino. Don’t want a congrats DC winter.

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

On that map I’d say the risk is fairly low. PV is pretty far southeast and heights out west aren’t that low. Prior to that though, the risk is higher with lower heights out west….so 1/30-2/1 could be a cutter but it could also be a a snowier solution depending on all the shortwave nuances we can’t predict yet. 

And multiple lobes of the PV are in southeast/southern Canada. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

39 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If we can keep next year’s promised nino from reaching big heights I can’t see a torch month in the heart of winter.   Then again Kent Hadley used to hit ph homers back in the day....

Kent went on to do some great research on the circulation between the equatorial regions and the lower mid-latitudes.

[BrianW]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wild January stats from my weather station. The coldest high temperature was 34 degrees this month. A whopping 17/24 days had a high of 40+ and only 7/24 days made it into the 20s at night. 5.78” of rain .4” of snow. 

Only 3 days below 32 for HVN. +11.2 and the warmest January on record at 41.6. Previous record was 2020 at 36.8.

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

Eh we also gotta avoid strong or super nino. Don’t want a congrats DC winter.

I think people around here profoundly underestimate how hard it is to 1) snow inside the Mid-Atlantic fall line and 2) do it consistently enough that it outperforms this region over a whole season.

 

[brooklynwx99]

25 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Big cutter pattern for the coast, SE ridge under modeled all winter

a "cutter pattern" and a pattern where you can get a cutter (again, like 80-90% of patterns) are two different things

this is a cutter pattern... what we're seeing now. not even close to what we'll be seeing, especially in terms of cold air

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Crazy amount of water out there right now: 

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, George001 said:

Eh we also gotta avoid strong or super nino. Don’t want a congrats DC winter.

Strong is fine. Super is not happening. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

a "cutter pattern" and a pattern where you can get a cutter (again, like 80-90% of patterns) are two different things

this is a cutter pattern... what we're seeing now. not even close to what we'll be seeing, especially in terms of cold air

What is a cutter from NYC south isn't necessarily a cutter for NE. I will take my chances with that look at my latitude. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Is there a euro download problem, TT, PSU, Pivotal....?

[weathafella]

This is like yore-euro available at 7pm.

[Lava Rock]

A relative torch to 42.6F

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Crazy amount of water out there right now: 

Make it stop.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Some light snow here at the moment.

[DavisStraight]

4 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Here's the good thing, the chances of it being worse next year are super slim. So we can only go up up ( well, colder lol ) from here

I thought the odds were with us this year after the last three.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is a cutter from NYC south isn't necessarily a cutter for NE. I will take my chances with that look at my latitude. 

Unless these big troughs keep dumping west.

That'll definitely make the SE ridge stronger and even your area wouldn't be spared like 12z Euro shows

What a disaster this winter has become