dendrite Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Looks like a deep winter period is incoming. May as well embrace it for as long as it lasts. Then torch it away asap. 6z goofus was run out of Mark’s basement. Don’t look at the kuchie though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like a deep winter period is incoming. May as well embrace it for as long as it lasts. Then torch it away asap. 6z goofus was run out of Mark’s basement. Don’t look at the kuchie though. So i'm not getting 38" over the next 15 days? Bummer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 The temperature in my yard has been stuck between 33-36° for like 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The temperature in my yard has been stuck between 33-36° for like 60 hours. Tap on the console see if it goes down............. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Juicy? Dude it's 100% white grape fruit juice juicy. You were right about the 30 hours of snow by the way. And now we have a break of about 30 hours lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Weenie run of the 06z GFS. That’s how to run a gradient pattern. Euro was teasing in the 00z release, too ... but at finite scales. Heh, where only the kind of digging of the desperately damned would reveal. But the Monday system's rain snow line is like 23.4 miles SE of previous runs... It's basically Canon CT to MHT NH... anywhere above that line net gains from that. Unfortunately... anywhere SE is cat pawing madness, net losing what they don't have, where it must feel like god's been raising the dead just to tax them some more. Then the 26th ...has the better front-side air mass like we've been noting, and holds just enough to net gain Rt 2.. Like it snows with gradually diminishing visibility, then right about the moment it crosses the 2 or even 3"/hr rate, pings and pillows take over then it's light rain... BUT, the moral victory is that this system is moving quite fast, so just about the time all that transition happens ( slower to take place from S-N of course... ur right, CNE does well on the 26th), the max uvm passes off and it's misting. That's what that looks like in the 00z evolution to me. Pike might even start as snow and pingers... in fact I think the pretty coloring book versions of the QPF shows that - but transitions to fast to net+ .. One other thing.... these events have been ( as I suspected ...) deamplifying as they've relayed from the outer mid range into mid ...etc. Monday's wave is in fact barely below 1000 mb leaving Cape May NJ shores, where it was once a d-drippin' 978 or whatever that was last earlier in the week. But this is probably why the rain snow line ( in the Euro for ex) is situating the way it did...it's sort of a swap - a flatter system doesn't overwhelm a tenuous polar air mass so readily... They tend to ride along what thermal wall there is, albeit weak. But more so for the 26th, I'm noticing the 500 mb/ wholesale mid troposphere wave signature of the this latter event is in the process of morphing in the runs. It's possible the 26th begins to diverge from a cohesive cyclone model ...devolving into something else... The primary low in the Euro, is over BUF at 1am Thursday at a stunning depth of 998 mb for a reason.. Looks like the whole event is purely a WAA thrust -driven, and losing the cyclone presentation. We may may moral victory that event, just by virtue of it turning into something else entirely. We wouldn't have to suffer the indignity of being raised from the dead yet again on that one. By the way...not sure anyone is paying attention but Canada is loading up with some serious arctic syrup beyond about D7..8 in the GGEM/Euro. 574 closed hydrostat down to mid Ontario is no f'n joke! Pattern must've changed, huh - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 33 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like a deep winter period is incoming. May as well embrace it for as long as it lasts. Then torch it away asap. 6z goofus was run out of Mark’s basement. Don’t look at the kuchie though. Genug es nicht Shoyn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 31 minutes ago, dryslot said: So i'm not getting 38" over the next 15 days? Bummer. Higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Euro was teasing in the 00z release, too ... but at finite scales. Heh, where only the kind of digging that happens in a desperate pattern would reveal. But the Monday system's rain snow line is like 23.4 miles SE of previous runs... It's basically Canon CT to MHT NH... anywhere above that line net gains from that. Unfortunately... anywhere SE is cat pawing madness, net losing what they don't have, where it must feel like god's been raising the dead just to tax them some more. Then the 26th ...has the better front-side air mass like we've been noting, and holds just enough to net gain Rt 2.. Like it snows with gradually diminishing visibility, then right about the moment it crosses the 2 or even 3"/hr rate, pings and pillows take over then it's light rain... BUT, the moral victory is that this system is moving quite fast, so just about the time all that transition happens ( slow to take place S-N of course... ur right, CNE does well on the 26th), the max uvm passes off and it's misting. That's what that looks like in the 00z evolution to me. Pike might even start as snow and pingers... in fact I think the pretty coloring book versions of the QPF shows that. But transition to fast to net+ .. One other thing.... these events have been ( as I suspected ...) deamplifying as they've related from he outer mid range into mid ...etc. Monday's wave is in fact barely below 1000 mb leaving Cape May NJ shores, where it once 978 or whatever that was last earlier in the week. But this is probably why the rain snow line ( in the Euro for ex) is situating the way it did...it's sort of a swap - a flatter system doesn't overwhelm a tenuous polar air mass so readily... They tend to ride along what thermal wall there is, albeit weak. But more so for the 26th, I'm noticing the 500 mb/ wholesale mid troposphere wave signature of the this latter event is in the process of morphing in the runs. It's possible the 26th begins to diverge from a cohesive cyclone model ...devolving into something else... The primary low in the Euro, is over BUF at 1am Thursday at a stunning depth of 998 mb for a reason.. Looks like the whole event is purely a WAA thrust -driven, and losing the cyclone presentation. We may may moral victory that event by it just turns into something else entirely. We wouldn't suffer the indignity of being raised from the dead yet again on that one. By the way...not sure anyone is paying attention but Canada is loading up with some serious arctic syrup beyond about D7..8 in the GGEM/Euro. 574 close hydrostats down to mid Ontario is no f'n joke! Pattern must've changed, huh - No change 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks. What do you click on under the acis chart for single station to get those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 33 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The temperature in my yard has been stuck between 33-36° for like 60 hours. 29 here, after a low of 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Weenie run of the 06z GFS. That’s how to run a gradient pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: My God! Ullr take the wheel! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, George001 said: Yeah, to save this winter in SNE we need something to force all that cold in Siberia over here. It’s possible but based on past winters similar to this it’s a long shot. That damn western ridge is just too far west so everything wants to run inland. We don’t need anything from Siberia, they can keep their cold. All we really need is for Canada to stop averaging +10-20 anomalies for weeks at a time. The air masses in place every time we get an event have literally been hot garbage. There’s nothing to tap into to generate snow… Siberia and Canada can be cold at the same time, it doesn’t have to be an either/or scenario. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: My God! Ullr take the wheel! 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: We don’t need anything from Siberia, they can keep their cold. All we really need is for Canada to stop averaging +10-20 anomalies for weeks at a time. The air masses in place every time we get an event have literally been hot garbage. There’s nothing to tap into to generate snow… Siberia and Canada can be cold at the same time, it doesn’t have to be an either/or scenario. You know...at 'local hemispheric scale' ...there's been plenty of cold air this year. Available to systems as they are passing through? That's been the problem - That comes down to in situ mechanics/synoptic variance. That said, ( just pointed this out) the latter mid and extended range is brutally cold across the Canadian shield.. We don't need deliverance from Siberia in either sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: You know...at 'local hemispheric scale' ...there's been plenty of cold air this year. Available to systems as they are passing through? That's been the problem - That comes down to in situ mechanics/synoptic variance. That said, ( just pointed this out) the latter mid and extended range is brutally cold across the Canadian shield.. We don't need deliverance from Siberia in either sense. Tip, Are you still in Winter "mode" or are your thoughts now more towards Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 19 minutes ago, 512high said: Tip, Are you still in Winter "mode" or are your thoughts now more towards Spring? what - not sure I understand this question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 What would it take, and do we think it is in the cards, to get some real arctic air here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: What would it take, and do we think it is in the cards, to get some real arctic air here? PV being near us in Canada…and yes, we should get an arctic intrusion or two I would think with it lurking so close by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: what - not sure I understand this question? Sorry, meaning the chances of events going forward, If Feb seems to "warm" after a colder start, are you throwing the towel in for us in the southern regions, another's words future events maybe on the snow /rain line going forward the remainder of the season sorry writing from a mobile dev. I thought you said somewhere that if we can't cash on a few future events, time to maybe move on........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: PV being near us in Canada…and yes, we should get an arctic intrusion or two I would think with it lurking so close by. 1st week of Feb could be special for all of that happens. This pattern change has been slow up here but progressing. Perhaps our growing snowpack will provide marginal help to SNE in a gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 28 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: 1st week of Feb could be special for all of that happens. This pattern change has been slow up here but progressing. Perhaps our growing snowpack will provide marginal help to SNE in a gradient. Getting deep snowpack is great for reinforcing good patterns. It’s not going to cause an awful pattern to shift but in otherwise marginal setups it can make them better….it basically helps refrigerates the lower atmosphere if you have wide scale snow pack in a region. We’ve had a huge dearth of pack this winter close by so that also makes mild patterns even warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 GFS coming in a bit colder for 1/25 too. Nice SWFE look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS coming in a bit colder for 1/25 too. Nice SWFE look. Yeah a bit better confluence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 48 minutes ago, 512high said: Sorry, meaning the chances of events going forward, If Feb seems to "warm" after a colder start, are you throwing the towel in for us in the southern regions, another's words future events maybe on the snow /rain line going forward the remainder of the season sorry writing from a mobile dev. I thought you said somewhere that if we can't cash on a few future events, time to maybe move on........ 'Throw in the towel' ... Not trying to be condescending or elitist, but I prefer not to venture into such 'emotive' responses to this shit? That likens to a 5 year-old ... flopping in the check-out aisle ... having a tantrum because mom won't let 'er have that piece of shiny candy - that's deliberately there at eye level for the pant-leg grabbing, spoiled little square-mouthed enrage brat. ..But I digress.. I guess there some 'compartmentilization' that goes on with this engagement - within me, anyway. I can have my druthers and disappointments, and my druthers and successes... but I still will approach with the objective analytic intention. I am human, though - but you're asking me a question that sort of delves into my personality a bit. Just trying to be honest... So anyway, there are a couple of points I'd make going forward. 1 ... both education, ranging to existential life, teaches us that it is foolish to 'throw in towels' until ... Easter really. That said, it depends on what one's hoping to experience. If it is heavy stacked snow pack? .... that can't really happen after ~ March 1 do to the obvious. But if one is just hoping for the 'rush' at a great looking series of model runs and the drama build-up of big events... ? That's open season until May. You'll just have to be aware that the return rate is dropping over time. 2 ... Right now the numerical teleconnectors deny everything in #1 ... sorry. I don't make the rules or the correlations - they are what they are. But this panel Would not be encouraging in the climate realm of 30 years ago. It would signify that this pattern change is not long for the world. In 2023, after the last 10 years have sported three separate Februaries that hosted temperatures in the mid 70s, and even an unthinkable 80 F ...?? That panel of teleconnector numerics/graphical presentations should not set very well to any objective consumer. The AO above has a lot of spread. Even though the mean curve is positive, ...enough members are slumped to suggest the confidence chi isn't hugely large there. But every NAO and PNA member is warm in the right panels - and those are perhaps the more important indicators for our latitude. Combing the aspects of #2 above with this telelon spread is pretty much the opposite of an inspiring look for over the longer duration. If one were to say that this winter is "bottoming out" over the next 10 days in particular, after which a some sort of (dying Nina + CC )/2 takes us back to one of those springs like 2009 ...you'd have a strong case. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 How many people would love to see Typhon Tip run into this kid while grocery shopping??? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Nice pattern change. Good job to those who saw it coming. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 This is what life looks like when you live at 300’ elevation but the snow line is often above 600’ elevation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This is what life looks like when you live at 300’ elevation but the snow line is often above 600’ elevation. Great pic even though it’s not to your benefit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now