qg_omega Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, it's not like ensemble forecasting isn't the most powerful medium to long range forecasting tool we have instead, we should use persistence and outdated MJO plots. i don't even know why I got a degree! Remember when ensembles “didn’t make sense” because of MJO. Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 29 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: it's in a hurry to make it through the gulf. With that track you would think it would sit there and bury us. It looks like it slows as it closes off but it’s to late verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Little southeast slide by the gfs for Monday edit: sorry just saw a thread was started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Gfs unloads the arctic hounds next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs unloads the arctic hounds next weekend No one cares 3 1 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 20, 2023 Author Share Posted January 20, 2023 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs unloads the arctic hounds next weekend maybe you'll catch a flurry/squall along the arctic front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 The thing is, with these kind of systems it sucks when SNE isn't in the game because many of you lose your enthusiasm. But when SNE is in the game, then we often get fringed up here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: The thing is, with these kind of systems it sucks when SNE isn't in the game because many of you lose your enthusiasm. But when SNE is in the game, then we often get fringed up here! Depends...you can often catch deformation on some of the SNE biggies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Man, I had fun trolling, but it does suck to see the rev so down and out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z euro looks pretty interesting for interior New England. what does that mean ... RUT is interior "New England" oh never mind - this was yesterday... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, I had fun trolling, but it does suck to see the rev so down and out Barely a coating for us in CT since Dec 11, that will do it to anyone. We’ve become angry, bitter, and pessimistic. Even an inch here and there would change the mood, get to fire up the snow blower, shoveling up some six inch driveway piles off an inch of snow while your neighbor lets it melt by noon goes a long way to warm the snow weenies winter heart. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Is NCEP running on 486-SX computers today? Dreadfully slow all day long. Posted earlier ...they're having comms problems - they released a statement this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Barely a coating for us in CT since Dec 11, that will do it to anyone. We’ve become angry, bitter, and pessimistic. Even an inch here and there would change the mood, get to fire up the snow blower, shoveling up some six inch driveway piles off an inch of snow while your neighbor lets it melt by noon goes a long way to warm the snow weenies winter heart. If we could just move that south 40-50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I'm not sure the track is as important with Monday ... there is a defined lack of cold air.. The track is already doable. In fact, the GEFs ensemble mean was tightly cluster along an ideal track, actually. RAIN sometimes there's just a lack of cold air. Next - That's what this looks like. I keep reading NWS and posts on social media, discussing the track like it is the main sensitivity to where the snow axis is... WRONG there some...sure. But if it's 37/34 at Orange Massachusetts and nothing hanging around in CNE to help out... it won't matter where the 'flatter solutions' track. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs unloads the arctic hounds next weekend Perfectly timed in between storms. Cold and dry. Then the cold exits just ahead of the next rain maker. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, I had fun trolling, but it does suck to see the rev so down and out It’s sad to see but at least he can get a head start on FB prepping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure the track is as important with Monday ... there is a defined lack of cold air.. The track is already doable. In fact, the GEFs ensemble mean was tightly cluster along an ideal track, actually. RAIN sometimes there's just a lack of cold air. Next - That's what this looks like. I keep reading NWS and posts on social media, discussing the track like it is the main sensitivity to where the snow axis is... WRONG there some...sure. But if it's 37/34 at Orange Massachusetts and nothing hanging around in CNE to help out... it won't matter where the 'flatter solutions' track. It’s cold enough out ahead of that storm…even if not ideal. The biggest problem I see is the high is literally in the worst possible spot. We just get flooded during the WAA phase of the storm. Once winds finally back to northeast, we’re too mild for snow except over far interior zones where it remains just cold enough. Normally a 534 thickness -3C 850 antecedent airmass would work if we had any type of mechanism whatsoever to hold that in, but when the high is sliding southeast of ACK and out into the Atlantic, we’re cooked. The funny part is both the 18z NAM and HFS did try and flip us back to heavy snow at the end…not really buying that depiction but still entertaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Let’s buy the flip to violence on the gfs and nam. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 Hope Ray goes sledding tomorrow. Pull up those ass-less snow pants, slide on that Bruins coat and get on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Depends...you can often catch deformation on some of the SNE biggies not as much as you'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 There's a frame of the GFS which shows promise … 1039 high over Quebec, 16 in Boston and -30 in NNE, a strong storm brewing over the SE of the CONUS getting ready to slide off the coast … I don't know what happens next because its in February and it's 384h … but it's an idea! (It's probably good it doesn't go out a few more hours because it would slide up to BUF or something.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Do coastal areas of SNE have a shot at anything out of next week’s storms? I figure we’re going to be shut out, but eventually one of these has to break our way for once. I’d think so anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s cold enough out ahead of that storm…even if not ideal. The biggest problem I see is the high is literally in the worst possible spot. We just get flooded during the WAA phase of the storm. Once winds finally back to northeast, we’re too mild for snow except over far interior zones where it remains just cold enough. Normally a 534 thickness -3C 850 antecedent airmass would work if we had any type of mechanism whatsoever to hold that in, but when the high is sliding southeast of ACK and out into the Atlantic, we’re cooked. The funny part is both the 18z NAM and HFS did try and flip us back to heavy snow at the end…not really buying that depiction but still entertaining. I was talking about Monday... but, yeah... they're kinda twin events - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who else is looking forward to two more rain events the next 5-6 days?! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Perfectly timed in between storms. Cold and dry. Then the cold exits just ahead of the next rain maker. 80s are back... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Perfectly timed in between storms. Cold and dry. Then the cold exits just ahead of the next rain maker. the la-la land 300hr gfs has a miller-b type system, actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: the la-la land 300hr gfs has a miller-b type system, actually Ya it’s just funny how it’s still rain at the coast with that set up lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: 80s are back... I don’t recall winters in the 80s as being particularly rainy. Cold and dry by my memory. I’ve probably buried those memories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was talking about Monday... but, yeah... they're kinda twin events - Do you think the Wednesday storm has a chance of snow to the coast, it looks a little better on the models than Monday's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I don’t recall winters in the 80s as being particularly rainy. Cold and dry by my memory. I’ve probably buried those memories Some years were frigid, until we got a storm, then it would rain and get frigid again after. Others were quite wet as I remember. Several storms that started as snow only to quickly change to pouring rain. And of course there was ALWAYS the good 'ol "rain changing to snow" Yeah right, I only remember that happening once the whole decade 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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