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January 2023 Obs/Discussion

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I buy. 

they do have blocking returning that's likely associated with a disruption of the SPV or even a SSW. I would never count on something like this, but it's certainly plausible. weakened SPVs certainly make it easier to disrupt the TPV. it's a wildcard. @40/70 Benchmark has also mentioned this

these blocking events are often preceded by strong SE ridging, which is what we'll be seeing for the first half of Feb, most likely

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-7542400.thumb.png.43053499f05f4a070c340e4cae3c13a0.png1490292510_unnamed(1).thumb.png.aee60e601c8e01a97e26d2a300e52829.png

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MaineJayhawk
MaineJayhawk

Here's the sunset on my lake tonight.  A face melter all over the region it seems! 

alex
alex

Indeed 

MaineJayhawk
MaineJayhawk

I was at Sebago Lake shooting the moon but had to grab a shot of MWN's alpenglow.  

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

lol. I am not "coming for" anyone. 

I really don't care either way, and I probably misread your post.

I'm sorry man, just that I had another response from from someone else saying the same thing. I reread my first post and I wasn't complaining about the winter being horrible, I was making a point that a lot of people were and it's not going to make things any better. Anyway, I'm not even bothering with that anymore. Just sticking with what's going on with the weather. No harm, no foul

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think anyone’s out of line? I mean, people are actually discussing if it can snow again in other subforums.

We’re in a bad pattern in awful season thus far. We have chances over the next week. All of them are longer shots in SNE. Nina climo torches some if not a majority of February. I mean, those are the facts and you can’t sugar coat that even in strict pattern or signal discussion IMO.

I think there are very few who are actually trolling and if we had a serious threat complaints would stop almost immediately…until the storm ended.

I’m just saying on the spectrum of wailing and gnashing of teeth, this is pretty tame. 

Nina climo also is cold and snowy for Dec and Jan. Sort of worked out in Dec with the cold (snow was up and in though), Jan has been record warm so far. Maybe it torches anyways, but it’s also possible we had our thaw early and Feb and Mar we make up some ground. The point I’m making is we have 0 idea what’s going to happen in Feb, assuming a torch doesn’t make sense just like it doesn’t make sense to assume cold and snowy because of the strat stuff (that doesn’t always work in our favor).

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Is that an actual clipper system moving down from Canada in the long range on the GFS? Haven't seen one like that in quite some time.....Hopefully a sign of some change out there.

I was thinking the same... a moisture starved clipper lol. 23rd does look slightly better than 12Z, but thats grasping at straws

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, George001 said:

Nina climo also is cold and snowy for Dec and Jan. Sort of worked out in Dec with the cold (snow was up and in though), Jan has been record warm so far. Maybe it torches anyways, but it’s also possible we had our thaw early and Feb and Mar we make up some ground. The point I’m making is we have 0 idea what’s going to happen in Feb, assuming a torch doesn’t make sense just like it doesn’t make sense to assume cold and snowy because of the strat stuff (that doesn’t always work in our favor).

I would say that we don’t know what’ll happen, but we can read the tea leaves to make an educated guess and I don’t think anyone here would say we see below normal odds of a torch at least part of Feb, and not just because of Nina climo. 

To be clear, I’m not trying to be negative. I want cold and snow and lots of it. I’m just bearish until I actually see meaningful change here. No doubt it’s getting better the next week in NNE.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

they do have blocking returning that's likely associated with a disruption of the SPV or even a SSW. I would never count on something like this, but it's certainly plausible. weakened SPVs certainly make it easier to disrupt the TPV. it's a wildcard. @40/70 Benchmark has also mentioned this

these blocking events are often preceded by strong SE ridging, which is what we'll be seeing for the first half of Feb, most likely

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-7542400.thumb.png.43053499f05f4a070c340e4cae3c13a0.png1490292510_unnamed(1).thumb.png.aee60e601c8e01a97e26d2a300e52829.png

100% agree.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man that is an absolute furnace for mid-February on weeklies. Total CONUS-wide blowtorch. 
 

Funny that it then tries for Ray’s epic ending starting in late February and into March. 

I totally buy all of that...makes sense to me. I blew January because the PAC jet was so overwhelming, but I really think I can still hit on Feb and March.

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted

 

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I would say that we don’t know what’ll happen, but we can read the tea leaves to make an educated guess and I don’t think anyone here would say we see below normal odds of a torch at least part of Feb, and not just because of Nina climo. 

To be clear, I’m not trying to be negative. I want cold and snow and lots of it. I’m just bearish until I actually see meaningful change here. No doubt it’s getting better the next week in NNE.

That’s fair, I would lean towards a warmer than normal month as well. Feels like we are locked in a pattern that favors warmth here, that western ridge off the coast has been stubborn all winter. Maybe that continues and we see a torch, but there is also a chance that it goes away and the weakened polar vortex leads to a frigid month. I’m leaning towards something in the middle, the pac remains unfavorable but blocking returns. Maybe a gradient pattern where it’s a sharp cut off between a burial and nothing. If im being honest with myself, that’s based on just knowing Nina climo, looking at mjo charts and looking at a bunch of lines on a chart showing what the pole vortex is expected to do. If I’m being honest with myself, for me there is absolutely 0 knowledge about the physical drivers behind these things, so I’m really just going off what computer models are saying. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, George001 said:

 

That’s fair, I would lean towards a warmer than normal month as well. Feels like we are locked in a pattern that favors warmth here, that western ridge off the coast has been stubborn all winter. Maybe that continues and we see a torch, but there is also a chance that it goes away and the weakened polar vortex leads to a frigid month. I’m leaning towards something in the middle, the pac remains unfavorable but blocking returns. Maybe a gradient pattern where it’s a sharp cut off between a burial and nothing. If im being honest with myself, that’s based on just knowing Nina climo, looking at mjo charts and looking at a bunch of lines on a chart showing what the pole vortex is expected to do. If I’m being honest with myself, for me there is absolutely 0 knowledge about the physical drivers behind these things, so I’m really just going off what computer models are saying. 

I do think this upcoming pattern opens the window into early Feb, followed by a return to torch and maybe the shift back to active and conducive that Ray and others have discussed at the very end. I don’t think Feb is wall to wall torch.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I do think this upcoming pattern opens the window into early Feb, followed by a return to torch and maybe the shift back to active and conducive that Ray and others have discussed at the very end. I don’t think Feb is wall to wall torch.

A theme of my conceptualization for this season was always a prominent PAC jet/+EPO that would be problematic at times in that it would induce a very mild pattern. February was a dead-ringer for a such a period. And while I did also expect a prominent January thaw, I did not expect the entire month to be a thaw, so I will not even try to spin that. Cut my losses and see how  much of the work I can salvage.

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A theme of my conceptualization for this season was always a prominent PAC jet/+EPO that would be problematic at times in that it would induce a very mild pattern. February was a dead-ringer for a such a period. And while I did also expect a prominent January thaw, I did not expect the entire month to be a thaw, so I will not even try to spin that. Cut my losses and see how  much of the work I can salvage.

Part of me wants to the the towel in, I'm sitting maybe at 4"+/_ right now, after tonight /Friday I assume below 12", but staying the course either we call it a ratter (maybe sooner then later) Maybe we will hit average numbers  who knows, at least their are storms to track here and there....hopefully we all cash in on the big one looming somewhere! 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well first of all, if you read my post you know that I'm not trying to be the complainer. I'm just making the point that there's a lot of complaining. I'm just trying to bring to light all the sorrow and despair being shared regarding what we're not getting. That's a second time you responded to me telling me I should take a break. If you take time to read my posts then you would respond to me differently. 

 

I apologize if you feel misinterpreted.  However when you said we should fold the thread I took you at your word and frustration.  Everyone in sne is annoyed at a so far useless winter.  But as Will confirmed, we’ll continue to discuss it even if people are losing their shit over lack of snow.

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