brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yes. 12z partially phased northern and southern streams which allows 1/23 to go nuts. We’d need a perfect thread the needle to get hit here….CNE/NNE get it on this run…they have a little more wiggle room but there’s still a risk of a stronger phase which would make it more of a pure cutter. But regardless, it allows us to reset the baroclinic zone further south for the next system so there’s some utility with 1/23 even if the system itself isn’t very snowy. the EPS is pretty much phased at this point, which is good for later on IMO even if it's a rainer for SNE south verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He lives in NNE now so you’ll have to replace him. Plus we don’t need another sema focused snowstorm. Gotta start yanking these ocean storms to the left. He bailed on Taunton? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Oddly ..that looks under done given the synoptics. with that kind of storm there are places where 10:1 would be quite underdone no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: He bailed on Taunton? Nah…he’s just heading to ski, and has been more interested in NH ski areas getting snow than SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 minutes ago, George001 said: It’s a great run but I’d pump the breaks on blizzard potential in SNE, for CNE and NNE absolutely. I’m still going to track it though, I would be happy to be proven wrong about this winter. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 46F torch. snow be melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Nah…he’s just heading to ski, and has been more interested in NH ski areas getting snow than SNE. Ah, that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS is pretty much phased at this point, which is good for later on IMO even if it's a rainer for SNE south verbatim If a more phased solution for this one is good for the later threat, im all for ramming this fucker into Buffalo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: He’s telling us to pump brakes…..lmfao!!! If that’s not the pot calling the kettle black??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, George001 said: It’s a great run but I’d pump the breaks on blizzard potential in SNE, for CNE and NNE absolutely. I’m still going to track it though, I would be happy to be proven wrong about this winter. If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 EPS mean looks like it tracks over SE MA/Cape for Sun/Mon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS is pretty much phased at this point, which is good for later on IMO even if it's a rainer for SNE south verbatim - be leery of that ending up too soon just sayn' ... i guess all else being utterly unfair this season, we gotta start somewhere. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: with that kind of storm there are places where 10:1 would be quite underdone no? I mean more than that... The 300 mb features a classic jet entrance leaving New England, N and E of the area, while the 500 mb exit region with 100+kts torpedos up underneath paralleling the coast. That's going to have some sort of intense banding and everything else filling in there with intance b-c leafing going on. The models won't QPF that probably until it's in short term. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, George001 said: It’s a great run but I’d pump the breaks on blizzard potential in SNE, for CNE and NNE absolutely. I’m still going to track it though, I would be happy to be proven wrong about this winter. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 we kneel and pray 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The regular George didn't post that. Bizarro George posted that 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Another one 29th? That should get the MidAtlantic if the 26th doesn't. Big party on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 miller A signal also showing up on the EPS, same timeframe as the ECMWF OP looks like we have two other potential winter weather threats: late this weekend and the 25-27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: we kneel and pray Trolls FTL finally?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 If you look really close in that white patch in VT, You can faintly see some fingertips protruding through it....... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Nahh not falling for this trap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: If you look really close in that white patch in VT, You can faintly see some fingertips protruding through it....... That is absolutely wild for an EPS Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I noticed you did ... I haven't exactly hated the notion - I've come by it from time to time.. BUT, I don't like the fact that we are lacking some +PP ( pressure pattern) for establishing the right thermodynamics. We need to have a DP inject into icing at 31.8 or it will flop to 32.4.... That's just physics - can't be avoided. BUT, establishing even minimal +PP N in VT/NH might get that inject ice enthusiasts would need, ageostrophic low level flow. This event does not have banked cold - or I should say lacked it on previous model trends. Anyway, I wasn't going mention it because it's too marginal and there's not a lot of evidence ( until this run) that we can drain ageostrophically. There will be a zone of sig icing. We just don’t quite know where yet . Maybe NW CT up into W Mass? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Of note, this is the first time all winter I think the models have shown more snow in parts of New England for run totals than they have in the Sierra. Changes afoot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I’m gonna miss the endless stream of day 10 posts by April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Of note, this is the first time all winter I think the models have shown more snow in parts of New England for run totals than they have in the Sierra. Changes afoot? Absolutely , seems we will now see a nice gradient pattern over New England . With big totals where it’s snow and big melts if it’s predominantly rain in others . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Another GD rainer next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 40 minutes ago, George001 said: It’s a great run but I’d pump the breaks on blizzard potential in SNE, for CNE and NNE absolutely. I’m still going to track it though, I would be happy to be proven wrong about this winter. Don't worry about it...Your 2024/25 winter plans are not affected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Of note, this is the first time all winter I think the models have shown more snow in parts of New England for run totals than they have in the Sierra. Changes afoot? Nah, “no changes”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Another one 29th? That should get the MidAtlantic if the 26th doesn't. Big party on the east coast. Maybe my January just took it's time getting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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