wx2fish Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6z euro/nam looked pretty good down into northernmost mass. Gfs is a little warmer/north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:19 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Shades firmly closed in SNE until further notice Expand Waiting for the Car wash thread to start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:14 PM, OceanStWx said: If you can find a snow depth change map that can be a more realistic representation of what falls when it's mixy. WeatherBell has it for the NAM, GFS, and Euro. All show a 10 inch increase in the max swath (which coincidentally is my favorite number to cap SWFEs at). This is a bit of a hybrid system though, as the dry slot looks like it never punches all the way northeast. But the Euro has the swath from RUT to DAW, GFS a little north, NAM closer to the MA border. Expand On 1/17/2023 at 1:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like your "too early for amounts" statement is really just some cookie-cutter, general rhetoric in attempt to mask the fact that you haven't really looked into it much. Sorry, but a 2-5" range for a SWFE N of the pike is a pretty reasonable place to start, dude. Expand Lo and behold.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 12:54 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: Well.. the word " PATTERN CHANGE " came out of my meteorologist mouth this morning on the news starting the end of next week. I totally respect the crew it WVIT, so for them to use that word, they must see something pretty solid. Fingers crossed Expand What about us in here... haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:24 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lo and behold.... Expand I take that and run, we have a lot of ground to make up(no pun intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:10 PM, qg_omega said: As long as the cold stays out west, best we can do is a gradient pattern here until we actually get warmth in the West. Still no signs of that happening Expand I think you have the right idea....only caveat is a potential SSW (I know) impact for March. I know those roll eyes at the speed of light, but they do actually produce from time to time and there are many spots virtually snowlelss that probably won't end up that way...just saying. Don't count out a March 2001/2018 type ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:27 PM, 512high said: I take that and run, we have a lot of ground to make up(no pun intended) Expand Same here. It will actually be refreshing to have 3" when the majority of SNE gets zilch, as opposed to the repeat of cycle of 5" here and 13" from Steve to Scooter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:29 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same here. It will actually be refreshing to have 3" when the majority of SNE gets zilch, as opposed to the repeat of cycle of 5" here and 13" from Steve to Scooter. Expand Thanks pal. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:19 PM, wx2fish said: 6z euro/nam looked pretty good down into northernmost mass. Gfs is a little warmer/north Expand Why is it warmer? Is it phasing something other guidance doesn't, or is it just more aggressive with the warm tongue? I tend do doubt the latter because that is normally the NAM's specialty....and if its the former, then I am inclined to discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:31 PM, CoastalWx said: Thanks pal. Expand Gotcha, bud. Fact of the matter is that many feel the same way, but just aren't as transparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like your "too early for amounts" statement is really just some cookie-cutter, general rhetoric in attempt to mask the fact that you haven't really looked into it much. Sorry, but a 2-5" range for a SWFE N of the pike is a pretty reasonable place to start, dude. Expand Don't read in between the lines too much, I'm just hoping you get snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:32 PM, TalcottWx said: Don't read in between the lines too much, I'm just hoping you get snow Expand If it works out, great....but my breath honestly isn't held, at this point. I'm prepared for just a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why is it warmer? Is it phasing something other guidance doesn't, or is it just more aggressive with the warm tongue? I tend do doubt the latter because that is normally the NAM's specialty....and if its the former, then I am inclined to discount it. Expand Much warmer lower levels on the GFS vs NAM for instance (what else is new). GFS mid to even upper 30s over southern NH, vs NAM 32. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Still punting Thursday for us in the pike region. CON to PWM is the zone to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:33 PM, OceanStWx said: Much warmer lower levels on the GFS vs NAM for instance (what else is new). GFS mid to even upper 30s over southern NH, vs NAM 32. Expand Yea, tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:33 PM, ORH_wxman said: Still punting Thursday for us in the pike region. CON to PWM is the zone to be. Expand I agree if you are looking for warning events, but I feel like I have a good shot at topping my "largest" event of the year (2.5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:33 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it works out, great....but my breath honestly isn't held, at this point. I'm prepared for just a ratter. Expand If I'm ever being ridiculous at an extended time frame, I'm probably being hopeful, tongue in cheek lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:29 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same here. It will actually be refreshing to have 3" when the majority of SNE gets zilch, as opposed to the repeat of cycle of 5" here and 13" from Steve to Scooter. Expand Which is not likely in this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:36 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Which is not likely in this Expand Be sure to post pics. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 ULL going out south . Ginx rule in place for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:03 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Nothing that everyone else can’t see. We’ve been here before, hopefully cold bleeds east. I do think CNE and NNE clean up. Just need some luck on our side. Better cross as many fingers as possible. Expand It appears the 23rd is more than less an inflection point. Fwiw, I keep noticing the 850 mb corrected significantly south passing that temporal entry, and then is in no hurry to go back... Some of the guidance had been trying to sell that lakes cutter/frontal passage as of a more coastal commitment but it is/was dubious against seasonal trends. That's been a kind of under-the-radar "model winter" persistence: coastal eye candy becomes a St Lawrence cruiser... We can argue a coastal doesn't fit the wave lengths on the front side of said change, anyway... I'm wondering what happens why out there. Because the 850 mb correction is coherent around the cross-guidance appeal just as well as the GFS. Some 25th..but yeah. However, they all have a ridge in the west, west biased ... in some cases, so far that it starts tugging the PNA down again. It's like a pattern that is sharing positive and negative index space without actually being neutral SD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 One thing I feel good about is not having one of those obnoxious seasons that suck, and then produce a perfect winter blocking pattern in April and May. I feel like the timing of any strat assist will manifest in March, and the band aid will be ripped in time for spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:35 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree if you are looking for warning events, but I feel like I have a good shot at topping my "largest" event of the year (2.5"). Expand The IVT alone may give many 2”…even down into SNE. Though better odds north of of pike. The main slug looks like mostly rain south of NH border…close for you but I’m still pretty leery of another tick or two warmer/north which takes you out of that part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:22 PM, Modfan2 said: Waiting for the Car wash thread to start. Expand Put me in coach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gotcha, bud. Fact of the matter is that many feel the same way, but just aren't as transparent. Expand I don’t think many are actively rooting for everyone else to get porked. You’ll do better than most Friday, but I’ll take the under on 3” for you. Maybe a sloppy inch while everyone else rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: The IVT alone may give many 2”…even down into SNE. Though better odds north of of pike. The main slug looks like mostly rain south of NH border…close for you but I’m still pretty leery of another tick or two warmer/north which takes you out of that part of the storm. Expand Maybe that is what Kev is referring to then. I haven't looked at that yet. The way things are going, the snow with the main slug will end up just north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:41 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe that is what Kev is referring to then. I haven't looked at that yet. The way things are going, the snow with the main slug will end up just north of me. Expand Post the GGEM snow depth change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:41 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t think many are actively rooting for everyone else to get porked. You’ll do better than most Friday, but I’ll take the under on 3” for you. Maybe a sloppy inch while everyone else rains. Expand Maybe not from the whole ordeal, combined. Either way, more suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:33 PM, ORH_wxman said: Still punting Thursday for us in the pike region. CON to PWM is the zone to be. Expand Yeah I don’t see Thursday as having a very high probability for positive return on snow south of New Hampshire Massachusetts border. Seems to me the only way we change this is to insert a little more front side +PP in Central Northern New England otherwise we probably have to wait for modest height falls on the backside of that mess. Might get into a burst of light snow Friday afternoon. ..This all seems pretty clear to me so I’m not gonna start a thread for this unless people want it. I’m not sure it’s really worth it for southern New England. However central northern New England it may be worth it for them - they are included in this forum lest we forget - right? ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:42 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Post the GGEM snow depth change Expand I don't see depth change for GEM....I think this is too aggressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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