powderfreak Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 4:13 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Those 10:1 clowns are awful in SWFE...need the NARCAN Expand Yeah sometimes Kuchie is better. But it’s rarely the number shown that’s important, just the overall vibe of the map. I just like using them with the implied idea that it isn’t the actual snowfall value on the map that’s important, just that it’s the amount of QPF expected to fall as snow. I just move the decimal over… says 7.0”, then 0.70” water will come as snow, figure out your own ratio from there. Call it 5-7” or 4-6”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 4:18 AM, powderfreak said: Yeah sometimes Kuchie is better. But it’s rarely the number shown that’s important, just the overall vibe of the map. I just like using them with the implied idea that it isn’t the actual snowfall value on the map that’s important, just that it’s the amount of QPF expected to fall as snow. I just move the decimal over… says 7.0”, then 0.70” water will come as snow, figure out your own ratio from there. Call it 5-7” or 4-6”. Expand Kuchie is sometimes better for a deformation zone...not a situation in which thermals are an issue. That is the NARCAN specialty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 11:55 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Phenomenal, underrated band. It will be nice to get a SWFE or two under our belts. You’ll get some snow, latitude says Ray through Hubby and I get a little bit more but it’s all good. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Awfully early to be throwing out potential snowfall totals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Shutting the shades here until late month. Pattern doesn't look that interesting to me this far south 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 11:23 AM, SouthCoastMA said: Shutting the shades here until late month. Pattern doesn't look that interesting to me this far south Expand Nope. Can kick until very late in the month at least IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 10:44 AM, TalcottWx said: Awfully early to be throwing out potential snowfall totals. Expand It's a chatter on a forum...not a forecast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Most guidance has a flip to snow for most of SNE away from coast. Why the hand wringing ? Is it cuz of SE Mass? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 12:05 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's a chatter on a forum...not a forecast. Expand I say 12-24" Methuen. Power of positivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4-8", Probably a 10 spot where the bodies are buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 12:08 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Most guidance has a flip to snow for most of SNE away from coast. Why the hand wringing ? Is it cuz of SE Mass? Expand Really just Canadian. GFS and EURO are pike north especially CNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 There is going to be a lot of non-frozen precipitation in much of SNE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 12:23 PM, TalcottWx said: I say 12-24" Methuen. Power of positivity. Expand seems low, can you please elaborate on your forecast?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 12:28 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Really just Canadian. GFS and EURO are pike north especially CNE. Expand Seems like most turn to snow on Friday well south and east of pike with ULL snows . Not saying that happens at all. As Will has said .. it’s likely going to shift east north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 12:38 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like most turn to snow on Friday well south and east of pike with ULL snows Expand A few hours of white rain , maybe you can score an inch or two with your elevation and latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 12:30 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: There is going to be a lot of non-frozen precipitation in much of SNE Expand think it will be close for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/16/2023 at 8:55 PM, jbenedet said: This look around day 9/10 reminds me a lot of the Arctic blast in December and the prelude to the Buffalo bomb. Not a good look for us easterners. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Well.. the word " PATTERN CHANGE " came out of my meteorologist mouth this morning on the news starting the end of next week. I totally respect the crew it WVIT, so for them to use that word, they must see something pretty solid. Fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 You just hate to see it. Cutter after cutter followed by suppression. When do I put down grass seed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 12:54 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: Well.. the word " PATTERN CHANGE " came out of my meteorologist mouth this morning on the news starting the end of next week. I totally respect the crew it WVIT, so for them to use that word, they must see something pretty solid. Fingers crossed Expand You can see it in the ensembles, might be a good 1-2 week period for us. End of January, beginning of February. But it definitely looks like we may need some luck mixed in there. Otherwise wise the pattern change is nothing more than another way to fork us. At least in our region. Hope I'm wrong... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 12:54 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: Well.. the word " PATTERN CHANGE " came out of my meteorologist mouth this morning on the news starting the end of next week. I totally respect the crew it WVIT, so for them to use that word, they must see something pretty solid. Fingers crossed Expand Nothing that everyone else can’t see. We’ve been here before, hopefully cold bleeds east. I do think CNE and NNE clean up. Just need some luck on our side. Better cross as many fingers as possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:03 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Nothing that everyone else can’t see. We’ve been here before, hopefully cold bleeds east. I do think CNE and NNE clean up. Just need some luck on our side. Better cross as many fingers as possible. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 @Baroclinic Zone Bob should start a thread. His last one worked out pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 As long as the cold stays out west, best we can do is a gradient pattern here until we actually get warmth in the West. Still no signs of that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 4:41 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kuchie is sometimes better for a deformation zone...not a situation in which thermals are an issue. That is the NARCAN specialty. Expand If you can find a snow depth change map that can be a more realistic representation of what falls when it's mixy. WeatherBell has it for the NAM, GFS, and Euro. All show a 10 inch increase in the max swath (which coincidentally is my favorite number to cap SWFEs at). This is a bit of a hybrid system though, as the dry slot looks like it never punches all the way northeast. But the Euro has the swath from RUT to DAW, GFS a little north, NAM closer to the MA border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I am prepared for Thursday Friday to underperform, and for the 23-24 to cut. But it might not, as there is a lot of disagreement in modeling. The outcome could be very good for some, and then some cold will come. We are in much better shape than 2 weeks ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 1:14 PM, OceanStWx said: If you can find a snow depth change map that can be a more realistic representation of what falls when it's mixy. WeatherBell has it for the NAM, GFS, and Euro. All show a 10 inch increase in the max swath (which coincidentally is my favorite number to cap SWFEs at). This is a bit of a hybrid system though, as the dry slot looks like it never punches all the way northeast. But the Euro has the swath from RUT to DAW, GFS a little north, NAM closer to the MA border. Expand Yep. Agreed. Good point about the max depth change map....never used it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 12:23 PM, TalcottWx said: I say 12-24" Methuen. Power of positivity. Expand I feel like your "too early for amounts" statement is really just some cookie-cutter, general rhetoric in attempt to mask the fact that you haven't really looked into it much. Sorry, but a 2-5" range for a SWFE N of the pike is a pretty reasonable place to start, dude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 On 1/17/2023 at 12:50 PM, qg_omega said: Expand Shades firmly closed in SNE until further notice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 The GYX long term lays it out well NG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 500 MB pattern continues with split flow and very blocky, weak flow through the end of the week at least. Some changes possible this weekend as possible strong E Pacific ridging develops, setting up a stronger +PNA pattern, followed by a developing block over the Atlantic early next week and a possible -NAO. Following the Euro this would portend more winter-like conditions. However, the previous models run, showed nothing of this sort, so confidence is low. Main event in the extended will be the coastal low developing to our S late Thu and quickly tracking E across the Gulf of ME. 500 MB closed low over the N Plains on Thur moves quickly to the E Thu night and Fri and does manage to some brief phasing and become weakly negatively tilted, which should produce a burst of decent dynamic and mid-level thermal forcing Thu night, with a decent burst of precip /mainly snow/ Thu night. Highest QPF, for now, is over southern NH, but it may start as rain here Thu afternoon before changing to snow. Also, warm antecedent temps, may limit accums early on as well. However, snowfall rates could be intense for a few hours overnight, and this may help overcome some of the warm ground melting. Several inches look possible, with the bulk of the snow falling Thu night. Lows Thu night will range from around 20 in the N to around 30 in the S. On Friday, the sfc low will quickly move into Nova Scotia, but weaken sfc low associated with upper level low will move across proving some light snow, especially in the morning, with Highs generally in the up[per 20s to low to mid 30s in the S. SHSN possible in the mtns Fri night, but cold aid air behind this system is limited and will last for a day as Sat highs push back into the upper 20s to mid 30s, but Sunday they will be in the 30s to around 40 in southern NH. There is a chance for some SN Sunday night into Monday, but latest Euro and GFS are very different in that period, so Chc POPs are quite reasonable attm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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