Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: it's also very important to note that when dealing with -EPO pattern that feature lots of low level cold, heights can be very misleading using the 12z GFS OP as an example, there's a huge mid level ridge centered over the NE US, absolute torch, right? nope! not even close. there's a ton of low level cold air in SE Canada with highs in the teens and 20s in New England. a WSW level thump then ensues keep this in mind when people freak out about weak SE ridges or WARs in the extended on the means. it tells you absolutely nothing about the low levels. the heights are only high because it's torching at like 500-700mb when it's insignificant to precip type We know our EPO dump rules up here. Cold air bleeds in, models totally miss depth of cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: What is your average snowfall and how much did you receive so far? 50-55” and I’m at 4.3”. Ya it’s sucked so far no doubt. But you’re posting only from one point of view. Changes look to be afoot…I wouldn’t be trusting an OP run that shows all cutters for the next 16 days either. Maybe it all fails, but I’m trying to be objective, along with some others, and not just look at fantasy cutters either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: 50-55” and I’m at 4.3”. Ya it’s sucked so far no doubt. But you’re posting only from one point of view. Changes look to be afoot…I wouldn’t be trusting an OP run that shows all cutters for the next 16 days either. Maybe it all fails, but I’m trying to be objective, along with some others, and not just look at fantasy cutters either. Looks like we are headed to a back loaded winter. These fools will fall by the wayside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: We know our EPO dump rules up here. Cold air bleeds in, models totally miss depth of cold. Gotta watch out for the EPO-no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It bothers me that the last several cycles of the GFS operational version have/are in just about 180 degrees out of sync with the EPS in the 240+ time range. It doesn't bother me for deterministic forecasting - per se... But I do feel pretty strongly that a pattern changes ...if indeed that takes place, would be exerting already between D6 and 10. SO what? is the GFS trying to avoid even changing that pattern? GFS just keeps dumping deep troughs into the west....we slowly get arctic cold bleeding in here but it takes a long while....so that is partly why I'm not all that gung ho at least prior to 1/25....there's certainly a possibility that one of the pre-1/25 shortwaves produce something interesting, but no way to be confident in that with the deep western troughs it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The -EPO can do all it wants, but if you dumping troughs into the Baja of CA...you aren't going to do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks like we are headed to a back loaded winter. These fools will fall by the wayside. The weeklies looked promising Jan 25 - Feb 15 As long as the cold doesn't keep dumping west then it shouldn't be too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The -EPO can do all it wants, but if you dumping troughs into the Baja of CA...you aren't going to do well. You want the PV at least in Hudson Bay or a little east of that if you have a deep western trough....kind of like Feb '94....we had troughs digging pretty deep there but it worked out because the PV wasn't sitting over Alberta, it was much further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks like we are left with the chance of a back loaded winter. It’s foolish to say it will break either way regarding February or March .These fools Who act like they know will fall by wayside FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks like we are headed to a back loaded winter. These fools will fall by the wayside. Ya I hope so too. We’ve seen this back loaded thing many many times. Maybe it works out for us? What is irritating is that he’s from Jersey, and posting about what he doesn’t get in his area on the NE forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 what a bonkers run. this is a ridiculous overrunning pattern all day 16 OP caveats applying, obviously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The -EPO can do all it wants, but if you dumping troughs into the Baja of CA...you aren't going to do well. exactly ... And I don't have a problem with it doing that per se. I find it interesting that the GFS wants to force a pattern change toward that variant, where the other's in the playground want the +PNA/PNAP version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You want the PV at least in Hudson Bay or a little east of that if you have a deep western trough....kind of like Feb '94....we had troughs digging pretty deep there but it worked out because the PV wasn't sitting over Alberta, it was much further east. Right, that's been tough to do. Some signs that tries to happen towards end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 i will say, if we keep seeing a legit -EPO/-AO/-NAO ridge bridge, it's game on. the ensembles have been hinting at the possibility of it seems like the -EPO/-AO is relatively high probability at this point, which would dislodge lots of cold. the -NAO would put it over the top by keeping cutters to a minimum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: exactly ... And I don't have a problem with it doing that per se. I find it interesting that the GFS wants to force a pattern change toward that variant, where the other's in the playground want the +PNA/PNAP version How bout a compromise between them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 I do like seeing signs of an arctic intrusion into the lower 48. That would mean the PV is more in favor to help with any confluence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: i will say, if we keep seeing a legit -EPO/-AO/-NAO ridge bridge, it's game on. the ensembles have been hinting at the possibility of it seems like the -EPO/-AO is relatively high probability at this point, which would dislodge lots of cold. the -NAO would put it over the top by keeping cutters to a minimum Doesn't the PNA lose relevance by February. We were able to get the Feb 2013 snowstorm despite a deep western trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: How bout a compromise between them? Nope - ... not allowed. either George runs the model from his basement ... or bust. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks like we are headed to a back loaded winter. These fools will fall by the wayside. You thinking similar to 2012-2013? That winter started slow like this one but ended up being a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what a bonkers run. this is a ridiculous overrunning pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 A GFS flavor would likely result in what Brook's is screaming re the overrunning type messy winter storm structures. The EPS ... what does the UKMET family look like? I bet that might be interesting - but it may not go out far enough? The UKMET loves to curl the flow early, so if it is somehow avoiding the SW tuckies, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what a bonkers run. this is a ridiculous overrunning pattern all day 16 OP caveats applying, obviously Blocking retrograding into Greenland, check TPV getting to HB as Will said, check Cold air very available, check Juicy southern stream tapping Pacific and Gulf moisture, check Hi Leon? Only thing missing here is puncuation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Blocking retrograding into Greenland, check TPV getting to HB as Will said, check Cold air very available, check Juicy southern stream tapping Pacific and Gulf moisture, check Hi Leon? Only thing missing here is puncuation. Only thing missing this winter is snow IMBY, not counting today's nusiance. I'm done writing novels until that looks imminent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 At least it’s winter for a few minutes. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 It’s over to a light mist here. Almost 1” at the house, .5” in town. This really makes me long for a classic SWFE where we get 8” of plaster followed by a little bit of drizzle then a freeze. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It’s over to a light mist here. Almost 1” at the house, .5” in town. This really makes me long for a classic SWFE where we get 8” of plaster followed by a little bit of drizzle then a freeze. We’ll get there and when we do, we’ll appreciate it a little more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 32 minutes ago, weathafella said: Eff you Goodell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: FYP Will keep an eye on your FB when you post to your overage Milf wannabes, your predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 It doesn’t carry a lot of deterministic value but for example… the GFS operational version out there between the 23rd and 26th is a perfect example of what we’re talking about wrt negative EPO type system profile. That’s a decent front end dump of snow followed by glazing scenario for interior Massachusetts with ease on that solution even though the 500 mb doesnt look anything like it would drive that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Will keep an eye on your FB when you post to your overage Milf wannabes, your predictions. Please do. Choo choo. Maybe someone will think your a Gilf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now