CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:39 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: So the euro is basically a garbage model like the rest of them now. No weight Expand Well I'm not saying throw it out totally, but I am viewing it as an outlier until further notice for this specific event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:39 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: So the euro is basically a garbage model like the rest of them now. No weight Expand If it doesn’t hold it at 1:15…I think that will be a good sign it is. If it doubles down at 12z, it might have a clue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:42 PM, WinterWolf said: If it doesn’t hold it at 1:15…I think that will be a good sign it is. If it doubles down at 12z, it might have a clue? Expand Decent logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:42 PM, WinterWolf said: If it doesn’t hold it at 1:15…I think that will be a good sign it is. If it doubles down at 12z, it might have a clue? Expand We’ll see. I’m holding out some hope locally we can run into something here, but obviously keeping expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:41 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s close, that’s for sure. If not, you can pretty much punt the next two weeks in SNE at least Expand Lol you say that silly stuff all the time…but now you’re watching the models cuz this just might afffect you all of a sudden ….hmmmm funny how that works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Heaviest snow this winter in Methuen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 GFS is a toaster bath. Cutter after cutter for the rest of January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:42 PM, CoastalWx said: Decent logic. Expand My guess it loses it for sure…it’s not what it used to be unfortunately…can’t seem to get its mojo back, which is sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:47 PM, SnoSki14 said: GFS is a toaster bath. Cutter after cutter for the rest of January Expand OP runs gonna OP run…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:47 PM, SnoSki14 said: GFS is a toaster bath. Cutter after cutter for the rest of January Expand Lol…it can’t figure out Sunday yet…but you’re worried about an OP run that goes out another 16 days…..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:49 PM, WinterWolf said: Lol…it can’t figure out Sunday yet…but you’re worried about an OP run that goes out another 16 days…..?? Expand I'm not taking it seriously I just think it's funny. It can't even generate a phantom snowstorm 10+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:48 PM, WinterWolf said: OP runs gonna OP run…. Expand At some point you need some kind of agreement between the ops and ensembles. I’m not saying they need to show and lock in D7, 8, 9, 10 events, but the ensembles have led us into the abyss with false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:52 PM, SnoSki14 said: I'm not taking it seriously I just think it's funny. It can't even generate a phantom snowstorm 10+ days out. Expand it literally did on the last run. just not for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:53 PM, brooklynwx99 said: it literally did on the last run. just not for you Expand We only comment on the OP runs that show cutters these days...we ignore the D13 snowstorms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:52 PM, WxWatcher007 said: At some point you need some kind of agreement between the ops and ensembles. I’m not saying they need to show and lock in D7, 8, 9, 10 events, but the ensembles have led us into the abyss with false hope. Expand Ya I don’t know…too far out to take them Seriously either. Where did this potential for the cape come from? Things change and pop as patterns change. I wouldn’t be too worried about a 16 day OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:54 PM, ORH_wxman said: We only comment on the OP runs that show cutters these days...we ignore the D13 snowstorms. Expand Well we know which ones will verify What's with the weenies... obviously I meant the snowstorms will verify. Geez tough crowd 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:54 PM, ORH_wxman said: We only comment on the OP runs that show cutters these days...we ignore the D13 snowstorms. Expand And there in lies one of the big problems here…either one is fantasy, but folks just comment on the cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 if we're going to talk about day 10+ OP runs... it's easy to see where this is going. ridge bridge developing and the arctic floodgates are about to open toaster bath, sign me up. that's like a -6 AO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:53 PM, brooklynwx99 said: it literally did on the last run. just not for you Expand And another problem…folks in different sub forums posting here about their BY in another region…it’s comical. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 What looks to be certain is NMaine gets smoked by the retro system. Good for the Wolfman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 5:01 PM, Ginx snewx said: What looks to be certain is NMaine gets smoked by the retro system. Good for the Wolfman Expand Ya…we take Steve. This one overnight and tomorrow gonna get em good too up there. Here we go…game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 5:00 PM, WinterWolf said: And another problem…folks in different sub forums posting here about their BY in another region…it’s comical. Expand What is your average snowfall and how much did you receive so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 The OP GFS has a good SWFE here anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:58 PM, SnoSki14 said: Well we know which ones will verify Expand Think its best if you stay in your lane and sub forum. GFS does have a snow storm up here fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 4:55 PM, WinterWolf said: Ya I don’t know…too far out to take them Seriously either. Where did this potential for the cape come from? Things change and pop as patterns change. I wouldn’t be too worried about a 16 day OP run. Expand It’s hard for me to take anything seriously until it’s an imminent threat, but I know I’m probably in the minority on that. No shot taken at anyone here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 5:04 PM, SnoSki14 said: What is your average snowfall and how much did you receive so far? Expand More than East Bumfuck NJ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 it's also very important to note that when dealing with -EPO pattern that feature lots of low level cold, heights can be very misleading using the 12z GFS OP as an example, there's a huge mid level ridge centered over the NE US, absolute torch, right? nope! not even close. there's a ton of low level cold air in SE Canada with highs in the teens and 20s in New England. a WSW level thump then ensues keep this in mind when people freak out about weak SE ridges or WARs in the extended on the means. it tells you absolutely nothing about the low levels. the heights are only high because it's torching at like 500-700mb when it's insignificant to precip type 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 5:06 PM, WxWatcher007 said: It’s hard for me to take anything seriously until it’s an imminent threat, but I know I’m probably in the minority on that. No shot taken at anyone here. Expand No you are in the majority. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 5:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: The OP GFS has a good SWFE here anyway Expand And it’s close for many on several systems. It’s active and with an improving cold source, at least pike north gets winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 On 1/12/2023 at 5:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: The OP GFS has a good SWFE here anyway Expand It bothers me that the last several cycles of the GFS operational version have/are just about 180 degrees out of sync with the EPS in the 240+ time range, wrt to the 500 mb isohypses layout. It doesn't bother me for deterministic forecasting - per se... But I do feel pretty strongly that a pattern change ...if indeed that takes place, would likely already be exerting between D6 and 10. SO what? is the GFS trying to avoid even changing that pattern? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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