Modfan2 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we get a Feb 2014 look. Some snow for all, Ray even gets to put me in his shed for one of the storms. A win for all. We didn’t get above 32F that Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: That GEFS today is really pretty nice and very cold potentially. Even shows a little Atlantic blocking in the long range. I’m not saying this happens but if people are bothered with model discussing for fear it will fail I suggest logging off and get ahold of yourselves. They are sort of taking on a different tenor than the past few days....they kind of screw around with a transition in the Jan 20-25 time range and then hint at something more extreme near the end of the run....which is dumping the PV down into Hudson Bay which would signal something far colder in the CONUS than previous advertised. It is differing from the EPS suite on this....though the EPS looks more faovrable for coastal storms than the GEFS does even if it's not advertising the arctic air intrusion the GEFS is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: "Snow shards" should be in the snow weenie glossary. All of us weirdos know exactly what they are.....when the sun (specifically later in the winter when sun angle is higher) starts eating away at the snow banks and piles, they form razor-esque shards sticking out that we all recognize. lol, yup When I was younger I used to hate that… Because it always started happening just when the snow pack was going to really get crazy-we’ve never really had a snow pack really get crazy. 2015 was the closest we ever got to that psycho realm … but the storm train shut off. The last week of February into that March stay very cold with deeply negative daytime highs in the 20s if not high teens, deep into March but there was no storms. It all just shut off as though the hemisphere just ran out of short waves. I always felt that if we had kept up the storm train we could’ve actually made that something special that year something like a 6 foot on the level pack. Ye 1700s style i’ve never been a snow depth guy. Mainly just cause it’s too frequently challenged. But once in a while will get the resting snow pack like between storms around 30 … 32 inches and I start to wonder. It always seems to choose that rough depth to fade back or stop. Talking about where I’ve been in that 300 to 500 foot elevation range. I’m sure it’s different for people of above 700 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Seems like the light at the end of the tunnel is around the 21st? Not sure what the 23rd does..maybe a SWFE hopefully. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: They are sort of taking on a different tenor than the past few days....they kind of screw around with a transition in the Jan 20-25 time range and then hint at something more extreme near the end of the run....which is dumping the PV down into Hudson Bay which would signal something far colder in the CONUS than previous advertised. It is differing from the EPS suite on this....though the EPS looks more faovrable for coastal storms than the GEFS does even if it's not advertising the arctic air intrusion the GEFS is. I’m thinking that the GEF’s machine is trying to see a negative EPO frankly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A fun exercise would be to post a bunch of months of H5 composites with the dates on each month blacked out and have people guess if the month was a big snow producer or not. My guess is a lot of people would get them wrong. Everyone is obsessed with looking for the "perfect pattern"....trying to find this unattainable fantasy pattern where cutters are not possible and every threat hits New England with accumulating snow. Example below: Guess which year each of these February maps were? And were any of them prolific? That first one kind of reminds me of 9394 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: lol, yup When I was younger I used to hate that… Because it always started happening just when the snow pack was going to really get crazy-we’ve never really had a snow pack really get crazy. 2015 was the closest we ever got to that psycho realm … but storm drain shut off. The last week of February into that March stay very cold with deeply negative daytime highs in the 20s if not high teens deep in the March and there was no storms they just shut off I always felt that if we had kept up the storm to rain we could’ve actually made that something special that year something like a 6 foot on the level pack. Ye 1700s style i’ve never been a snow depth guy. Mainly just cause it’s too and frequently challenged. But once in a while will get the resting snow pack like between storms around 30 … 32 inches and I start to wonder. It always seems to choose that rough depth to fade back or stop. Talking about where I’ve been in that 300 to 500 foot elevation range. I’m sure it’s different for people of above 700 Yeah it's hard to get over 30 inches. I've done it maybe half a dozen times in ORH....first time was Jan 1996 after the 1/12 storm that rained on the coast. We had 10-11" of DENSE snow in that which just boosted the piles to unimaginable levels since it had no compacting ability. The depth on the level at that point was around 40-42 inches. Then again in March 2001....that was actually the highest I ever saw in ORH....level depth was somewhere in the neighborhood of 45-46"....I did measure 50" in spots but I don't think that was truly level. It was hard to tell at that point though because the pack had been on the landscape since about 12/20. That pack was different than some of the other ones because it probably held about twice as much liquid equivalent as other packs that exceeded 35". There's a reason that there was still full deep pack (even in sunny areas) across much of the northern half of ORH county a solid week into April 2001 despite no storms for over a week. Then we did it amazingly frequently in the 2011-2015 years.....first in early Feb 2011 when we peaked at 38-39" (i remember being distinctly annoyed we didn't break 40), then again in March 2013 peaking around 35", then again the next year in Feb 2014 peaking around 33" and then of course the 2015 bonanza peaking at 43". We did come close here in Holliston in March 2018 but we were just shy of 30" depth after the 2nd storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 2nd map I posted with the trough axis centered over MN/WI and the SE ridge just offshore was February 2014. I had over 40 inches that month with zero cutters and a -4 temp departure. There were some really cold storms that month, if I remember correctly. I think there was one arctic fluffer with temps near zero in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That first one kind of reminds me of 9394 Funny you mentioned that year...that map is on there but it's not the first one....it's the last one. The first one is actually a complete rat....Feb 1989. It had cold, but no snow and the largest precipitation event of the month was a 57F cutter that dumped 1-2 inches of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just now, Hoth said: There were some really cold storms that month, if I remember correctly. I think there was one arctic fluffer with temps near zero in Boston. That storm with temps near 0 was actually Jan 2014. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 EPS is on board-all 3-GEPS, GEFS, EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They are sort of taking on a different tenor than the past few days....they kind of screw around with a transition in the Jan 20-25 time range and then hint at something more extreme near the end of the run....which is dumping the PV down into Hudson Bay which would signal something far colder in the CONUS than previous advertised. It is differing from the EPS suite on this....though the EPS looks more faovrable for coastal storms than the GEFS does even if it's not advertising the arctic air intrusion the GEFS is. i just like seeing the cross polar flow. we would at least get Canada ice cold with this kind of look, and there are hints of transient blocking too with the ridging over eastern Europe. solid -AO will definitely help displace the TPV GEFS might have a SE ridge on the mean, but there will be lots of cold air around in an active pattern. the GEPS is very nice and the EPS is coming out great too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That storm with temps near 0 was actually Jan 2014. Yeah it was 4 degrees here in NYC with heavy snow at one point. Storm of yore 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That storm with temps near 0 was actually Jan 2014. Now that’s the kind of storm I dream of. SN+ 3/3 WC -20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Any interest from the euro in next Thursday Friday? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Can't be mad at the guidance after the 21st or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Any interest from the euro in next Thursday Friday? If you like rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If you like rain. NNE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NNE? Possibly. I could see it being like this coming event. Lets hope for that vs a raging cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NNE? N Conway is on the line there....verbatim it looks like they get a decent shot of snow, but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like the light at the end of the tunnel is around the 21st? Not sure what the 23rd does..maybe a SWFE hopefully. Yea, that is the date I came up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: N Conway is on the line there....verbatim it looks like they get a decent shot of snow, but it's close. Jesus… I might head for the deep end if we are pulling into the condo next Thursday to pouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Jesus… I might head for the lounge if we are pulling into the condo next Thursday to pouring rain. Good idea! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 EPS looks really nice too 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Give me a storm 1/23 so I can get out of a work trip. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 EPS is definitely more of a +PNA with a neutral EPO versus the GEFS which is more solid -EPO and neutral PNA. Both patterns are way better than what we currently have but offer different threat profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Still another 10+ days away. Sigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Can't be mad at the guidance after the 21st or so. Oh some folks will be…just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Still another 10+ days away. Sigh it’s moving up in time. this doesn’t seem like a head fake 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Give me a storm 1/23 so I can get out of a work trip. Please. It’s really not a bad day to look frankly but it may turn active sooner 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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