Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 45 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Some light snow falling on the water in scituate currently Stay safe, especially with your boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: no you wouldn't be It depends if there's a light at the end. There's a flicker right now. So far there's been zero measurable snow in my area, north-central NJ or NYC. Even the worst winters had something by now. Looking at ensembles there's not much hope until the last week of Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Gonna be really interesting seeing Jan 20th, region wide observationally fitting November 20th. We keep bringing this up but the climo disparity will be most significant at/around that time frame. At the same time, the arctic and cold source regions such as Siberia are following their Jan 20th climo and in some cases have been colder/snowier than climo. Tying this together it makes for explosive baroclinicity in the Eastern CONUS. To elaborate: I believe if/when the arctic is involved we will be prone to seeing rapid cyclogenesis and deepening shortwaves in the East. From a "big storm" standpoint, this is obviously intriguing; but from a pro-cold/snow standpoint - absent high latitude blocking you will really want to see Long wave troughs overhead (moreso than usual). Or probabilistically: warm sectoring risk higher than normal; suppression risk lower than normal. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think there a few on this site who really do. very few I bet. Most of the snow haters either get off on the trolling high or the defense mechanism of not wanting to be disappointed. The ball busting and sarcasm though is priceless. That I do get and it's what makes this forum superior to all the other ones. That and the actual knowledge in here. But the whiny, it's never going to snow again stuff gets old. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It depends if there's a light at the end. There's a flicker right now. So far there's been zero measurable snow in my area, north-central NJ or NYC. Even the worst winters had something by now. Looking at ensembles there's not much hope until the last week of Jan. 90 percent of NYC/NJ snow in 2021 fell in a 3 week stretch in Feb and that season was well above average. NYC/NJ climate is rarely a 2 month snow pack climate. Outside of the best years, you hope for a good 2-3 week stretch and Feb and March are by far the snowiest averages. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It depends if there's a light at the end. There's a flicker right now. So far there's been zero measurable snow in my area, north-central NJ or NYC. Even the worst winters had something by now. Looking at ensembles there's not much hope until the last week of Jan. Sit back, relax, and take deep breaths. There's always hope, but as long as you accept your place within nature, and more importantly your local environment, the weather won't matter. ...Snow? Rain? Sun? Ice? Wind? Accept all of it into your being. Only then will you be truly free from your perceived state of sadness and helplessness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 46 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Gonna be really interesting seeing Jan 20th, region wide observationally fitting November 20th. We keep bringing this up but the climo disparity will be most significant at/around that time frame. At the same time, the arctic and cold source regions such as Siberia are following their Jan 20th climo and in some cases have been colder/snowier than climo. Tying this together it makes for explosive baroclinicity in the Eastern CONUS. To elaborate: I believe if/when the arctic is involved we will be prone to seeing rapid cyclogenesis and deepening shortwaves in the East. From a "big storm" standpoint, this is obviously intriguing; but from a pro-cold/snow standpoint - absent high latitude blocking you will really want to see Long wave troughs overhead (moreso than usual). Or probabilistically: warm sectoring risk higher than normal; suppression risk lower than normal. Like this particular post. For winter enthusiasm, there need be a changing of the guard, first, in order to “set the table” — entering a regime that has better chances to placate what it is you’re after. This post above recognizes the table as being set, without committing one way or the other. But that’s all that is required for now. Those who feel seasonally lovelorn… You’re at least getting word that girl or guy of your dreams has been talking about you. That may precede an actual phone call lol 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 29 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: 90 percent of NYC/NJ snow in 2021 fell in a 3 week stretch in Feb and that season was well above average. NYC/NJ climate is rarely a 2 month snow pack climate. Outside of the best years, you hope for a good 2-3 week stretch and Feb and March are by far the snowiest averages. And I would also further that that is not uncommon result in modern more recent climate mode all over the planet. A lot of places are making seasonal quota in short duration from what are called “rain bomb” phenomenon (which “rain“ in this context means any precipitating event). Fwiw, attribution flags they’re related to elevated ambient pwat around or injecting into any kind of rain mechanisms. I posted a don’t give up post over in the NYC Metro sub forum yesterday and I had a lot of this in mind. Setting up two or three week favorable regimes it’s probably something like three or four opportunities to observe precipitation anomalies that make up deficits 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Like this particular post. For winter enthusiasm, there need be a changing of the guard, first, in order to “set the table” — entering a regime that has better chances to placate what it is you’re after. This post above recognizes the table as being set, without committing one way or the other. But that’s all that is required for now. Those who feel seasonally lovelorn… You’re at least getting word that girl or guy of your dreams has been talking about you. That may proceed an actual phone call lol I mean - this is forecasting; it's all a game of odds. Committing is a word that should be taken out of the medium to long range forecasting vernacular, unless of course we are committing forecasting suicide. It connotes absolute confidence. We need to do better to accurately convey uncertainty. Maybe it was lost, but I'm broadly painting a picture here that, I believe odds favor big storms in the east, but odds also favor New England is on the warm side of these. If we lock into east based blocking, big snow potential much greater than normal, i.e. vs H5 analogs. That's all. It's your CPC monthly level of detail. It says something if you're looking at it with uncertainty in mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: That may precede an actual phone call lol That is sooooo 2005. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Another storm that shifts way west as it gets within a week. Persistence FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Although most of you south of me are not really interested in this next system it could be interesting for me. The next storm starts as snow and could snow hard for awhile up here. The models show a strip of accumulating snow for my area. I still have a snowcover and if the clouds come in late tonight the LL cold will be preserved. So while SNE floods with warm air cold air damning always rules here. So there will be a flip to liquid but it will stay in the 30s on Friday before cold air moves back in. Net gain for me. There's a thread for that system already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Well, I blew January....expected a +EPO winter, but I did not expect the PAC jet to own the month of January like it has. Still feel this winter will recovery....not be epic, but recover. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/active-pacific-jet-finally-poised-to.html 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 21 minutes ago, RDRY said: Another storm that shifts way west as it gets within a week. Persistence FTW. unreal. thing just disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Of course I’m hoping we get a northeast-wide coastal at some point, as is always the hope (though not often the reality). But I’m really pulling for you guys in SNE to eventually get something worthwhile. It’s especially miserable when the entire northeast + MA is getting hardcore skunked. I definitely don’t see you guys getting shut out though, almost positive things will improve at the end of Jan through Feb, even if marginally at first. Stay positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Next Thursday went poof on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I average about 63" per season....and am going to head into latter January with my largest event on the season being 1.5". Let that sink in... you are certainly not alone on that. i bet that is the case for a good chunk of the forum. personally my largest event was 4 sloppy inches (like prom night!) and i am at 9" on the season. my average is ~70". Prior 4 seasons: 74%, 90%. 77%. 87% of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Next Thursday went poof on the gfs LP over Chicago then up the St. Lawrence and vaporizes. One GFS run of the last 4 showed something good. Of course there is a signal a few days LATER, the tenor of the season. Always late and never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I blew January....expected a +EPO winter, but I did not expect the PAC jet to own the month of January like it has. Still feel this winter will recovery....not be epic, but recover. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/active-pacific-jet-finally-poised-to.html On 1/2/2023 at 12:08 PM, dendrite said: press 5 to hear Ray's winter forecast press 6 to hear Ray melt about the pattern and stress over his forecast press 7 to hear Ray reassure himself that this is all going according to plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 43 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Although most of you south of me are not really interested in this next system it could be interesting for me. The next storm starts as snow and could snow hard for awhile up here. The models show a strip of accumulating snow for my area. I still have a snowcover and if the clouds come in late tonight the LL cold will be preserved. So while SNE floods with warm air cold air damning always rules here. So there will be a flip to liquid but it will stay in the 30s on Friday before cold air moves back in. Net gain for me. Our elevation may help initially, but once the SW winds start picking up and we mix out, it'll torch quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Hope springs eternal for weather weenies. It's a blessing and a curse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I average about 63" per season....and am going to head into latter January with my largest event on the season being 1.5". Let that sink in... Not unprecedented all it takes is one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 My god is the parade of cutters and wanna-be cutters on the GFS impressive. The mean storm track is this season is Buffalo, NY and it won't be denied. I do find it interesting that all of the systems shown never really make it into Canada as if they forgot a passport. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Next Thursday went poof on the gfs In just not saying this to you Brett, but I don’t find that surprising at all. I mean it was an OP run at 8-9 days out…And a 6z one at that. Did you actually think it would hold there for 8 days? The thing could pop back just as quickly as it vanished on these OP runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Next Thursday went poof on the gfs It’s still there though. We’ll need the 50/50 to help redevelop this underneath. I know, it hasn’t happened yet this winter so we’ll need it to show itself first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s still there though. We’ll need the 50/50 to help redevelop this underneath. I know, it hasn’t happened yet this winter so we’ll need it to show itself first. It’s the wrong side of 1/20 anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just now, weathafella said: It’s the wrong side of 1/20 anyway.... This too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Why all the hand-wringing about a marginal day 8 system on a single OP run? Jesus, some of you have lost it. 5 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Madcap hilarity ... man I don't know if any actually paid attention to content in posts today, but... this morning I ventured that the pattern change wouldn't likely be preceded by a -EPO burst, where by a nervy audience would suffer seeing the trough carve west... HA! Seemingly on purpose, what summarily comes from the GFS? THIS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Madcap hilarity ... man I don't know if any actually paid attention to content in posts today, but... this morning I ventured that the pattern change wouldn't likely bead preceded by a -EPO burst, where by a nervy audience would suffer seeing the trough carve west... HA! Seemingly on purpose, what summarily comes from the GFS? THIS honestly, with that being the case, it is really nice seeing Canada get some legit Arctic air involved. this would produce at some point once the trough gets kicked east there's a lot more ways to win when you have fresh cold air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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