Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well the 10th is today, and this new look is after today…so in a sense it’s not wrong lol. Hey, never any guarantees, so just have to see if this idea holds another few days. If it doesn’t, so be it. When was the 10th idea floated ? This period has frankly looked like shit to me the whole way… The idea for circa 20th has been suggestive in the ensembles, but only recently has that been derivative from a broader inclusion of both technique and observation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 End of tonight’s CMC, starting to see the ridge in action on the OPs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 hours ago, Heisy said: End of tonight’s CMC, starting to see the ridge in action on the OPs . All the models are starting to look better by the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: All the models are starting to look better by the 20th True. You know they'll waiver like a politician, but at least there's something to keep an eye on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Maybe 1” tomorrow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe 1” tomorrow? Does it count if it quickly gets washed away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: All the models are starting to look better by the 20th GEFS has a WAR throughout the entire run. EPS looks pretty cooked as well though better than GEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 8 hours ago, DavisStraight said: Alex should get a good base. Maaaaaybe. If it’s marginal and we get any downsloping we are cooked. Sneaky cold today though - low of -3. First subzero of the season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, alex said: Maaaaaybe. If it’s marginal and we get any downsloping we are cooked. Sneaky cold today though - low of -3. First subzero of the season Fake though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Fake though. This winter fake winter is all the winter we’ve got 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GEFS has a WAR throughout the entire run. EPS looks pretty cooked as well though better than GEFS Changes start on 20th in west, then push east . By the end of the run all ensembles are loading up a bunch of cold nearby. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 9.9° real fake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6.6°F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GEFS has a WAR throughout the entire run. EPS looks pretty cooked as well though better than GEFS nah that will not happen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 ok, so looking over the ensembles, cross -guidance, there is some sort of event or risk around the 19th/20th - mind you, D8/9 is extended range, but not exactly over the horizon given the day and age. It is of the open wave/progressive handling. It is also a sub-index driven event, which is interesting, because the pattern from Japan around the globe begins to rapidly modulate toward a +PNA and/or a pattern that would burgeon western heights - so + "PNAP" either way. By just short days later, we see that really taking over the ensemble means. The atmosphere is tentatively marginal+1 ..so likely rain.. And there is still western biased solution potential. Nevertheless, there have been run cycles offering more cold high pressure over QUE, so a colder profile scenario and track suppression is an option on the table Re pattern change: Again...it is not merely ensemble suggestive but is also derivative by other means related to shorter and longer term air and/or sea telecon. There's suggestion of their source regions coming into constructive interference - of course predicated on a some stability, which is unfortunately in question. We'll have to see. But I get the personal sense that it is real. Probably a -AO (modestly)/+PNA with a negotiable NAO ... So far the EPO does not appear to lead this transition with the canonical negative burst, which may be a good thing for the nerve-spooked winter enthusiasts ... Not having to suffer seeing week of the continent imploding through the Rockies first in the guidance would be nice for a change ... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Looks like the 22nd will be the transition to a winter pattern. Have to watch for a Leon type pattern next weekend. A glimmer 0f hope this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Booked a trip to Jamaica for NH school vacation week. Feet of snow are guaranteed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 16 for a low, felt like winter walking the dogs this am, hopefully better times down the road.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 I'm not really taking the pattern seriously until a threat shows up. The way this winter has been going, I'm ready for the cutters. LOL. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not really taking the pattern seriously until a threat shows up. The way this winter has been going, I'm ready for the cutters. LOL. Yea, same here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks like the 22nd will be the transition to a winter pattern. Have to watch for a Leon type pattern next weekend. A glimmer if hope this morning. And it seems like these sort of wholesale change scenarios are less often timed in guidance altogether accurately. It will either come in more abruptly, or stage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: And it seems like these sort of wholesale change scenarios are less often timed in guidance altogether accurately. It will either come in more abruptly, or stage I would think we'd get a significant snowfall before the end of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not really taking the pattern seriously until a threat shows up. The way this winter has been going, I'm ready for the cutters. LOL. 5 cutters on the Euro next 12 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Just now, qg_omega said: 5 cutters on the Euro next 12 days If we get lucky they'll only be four. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 6z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: 5 cutters on the Euro next 12 days Euro goes out to 10 days. The one on day 9 could be decent up north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 31 minutes ago, 512high said: 16 for a low, felt like winter walking the dogs this am, hopefully better times down the road.. Winters been so warm that I haven't checked the thermometer on way to gym at 6am in shorts. Regretted that a little this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 5 cutters on the Euro next 12 days Good thing it only goes out 10 days and there are 3. I thought only weenies take day 10 euro verbatim? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 5 cutters on the Euro next 12 days I'm ready for that, but don't "expect" it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 How we pray the 6z gfs is right for next Thursday… would have a nice powder day up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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