40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEPS is a straight pants tent. now we wait to see if the EPS agrees I'm confident that this winter will turn the corner and won't end up as vile as it looks right now. I feel like I just messed the timing up. Not sure if you saw the parallels to Dec-Jan 2001-2002 that I made earlier, but its been a decent analog, thus far. I actually doubled up on that year in my forecast composite, but again...my timing was clearly off. Difference between this year and that year is that while we have had a +EPO overall, which was expected, there hasn't been a death star vortex camped out over AK like there was in 2001-2002. I'm pretty confident this will flip. I could see a latter January-Feb driven by PNA/poleward Aleutian ridging, with maybe a more el ninoish/blocky finish in March. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Whats really good is the better looking pattern is only 10-15 days out now just like all the others from November were too. i mean, the insane December blocking pattern did happen. just had absolutely awful luck… blows, but what can you do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, the insane December blocking pattern did happen. just had absolutely awful luck… blows, but what can you do The patterns haven't really been head fakes....aside from rushing the return of the good look in January. The head fakes have been more relative to individual storms going to crap. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, the insane December blocking pattern did happen. just had absolutely awful luck… blows, but what can you do There has been plenty of that over the last couple years too, Pretty tough to get up for something that just doesn't seem to want to work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: There has been plenty of that over the last couple years too, Pretty tough to get up for something that just doesn't seem to want to work out. Your awful luck season was 2 years ago....mine was more last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 20 minutes ago, radarman said: meh it was barely an EF2 through there. weak sauce Actually correct, IIRC it was in its formative stages when he was in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The patterns haven't really been head fakes....aside from rushing the return of the good pattern in January. The head fakes have been more relative to individual storms going to crap. Very true. We shoveled a lot of potential in December, and had things go to crap in the medium range in January—in addition to the well modeled torch lol. I do agree that we’ll turn the corner, maybe even in a big way. But it’s time for production. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Very true. We shoveled a lot of potential in December, and had things go to crap in the medium range in January—in addition to the well modeled torch lol. I do agree that we’ll turn the corner, maybe even in a big way. But it’s time for production. Period. This is why I haven't kept ramming that down people's throats and have backed off......fact of the matter is, we are halfway through winter with just about zero snow and my big January idea was a whiff, regardless of whether its just delayed, etc. Gotta read the scoreboard...and the room and know when to just let things be for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I wouldn't be shocked to see a Feb 2021 type of evolution, though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, the insane December blocking pattern did happen. just had absolutely awful luck… blows, but what can you do I pointed out in the NYC forum too that ensembles never really bought as heavily into the Dec change early before it was delayed nor the supposed 1/10 flip this much as they are with this one. You're seeing dark reds on the ensemble anomalies out west D12-16...back in late December we really saw normalized ridge average out west, many members of the EPS and GEFS had trofiness in the west...basically zero across the board show that now...this is even stronger agreement on the individuals than we had for the December flip 12-16 days out. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Your awful luck season was 2 years ago....mine was more last year. The last 3 yrs, All 3 were below avg. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: There has been plenty of that over the last couple years too, Pretty tough to get up for something that just doesn't seem to want to work out. But it’s better than seeing awfulness too. These are very nice to see. And it’s got to start somewhere, if it’s gonna turn around some. But I agree, don’t get up on things yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: The last 3 yrs, All 3 were below avg. Yea, same here....last 4 not including this season. I'm just talking about the worst of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, same here....last 4 not including this season. I'm just talking about the worse of it. Ok, Yes mine was 2 yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The patterns haven't really been head fakes....aside from rushing the return of the good look in January. The head fakes have been more relative to individual storms going to crap. No pattern has really lasted long either...as soon as we enter each one you see the next one already showing by Day 12...even the torch 12/30-1/4 it was evident well in advance we'd see a modification of it thereafter...I just wonder if we get to 1/22 and ensembles still look good for 2/5 or we already see the pattern flipping again by D12-14 on the ensembles to something else. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Very true. We shoveled a lot of potential in December, and had things go to crap in the medium range in January—in addition to the well modeled torch lol. I do agree that we’ll turn the corner, maybe even in a big way. But it’s time for production. Period. December blocking sure occurred , but it wasn’t as as well oriented Or as long as many hoped , thou it did lead to a major snow storm for those in deep interior of SNE (pike north ) and most of cne /nne and the pacific has been trash for about as long as the season has been around . Cali troughing Consistently posititioned Out west ..unfavorably for the CP of sne New England as Bob and Scott have touched on for weeks on end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: No pattern has really lasted long either...as soon as we enter each one you see the next one already showing by Day 12...even the torch 12/30-1/4 it was evident well in advance we'd see a modification of it thereafter...I just wonder if we get to 1/22 and ensembles still look good for 2/5 or we already see the pattern flipping again by D12-14 on the ensembles to something else. 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: December blocking sure occurred , but it wasn’t as as well oriented Or as long as many hoped , thou it did lead to a major snow storm for those in deep interior of SNE (pike north ) and most of cne /nne and the pacific has been trash for about as long as the season has been around Yes, the fact that the pattern didn't persist for a very long time played into our inability to capitalize, especially given the fact that we had to wait for the block to retrograde after initially being a bit too fat to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEPS is a straight pants tent. now we wait to see if the EPS agrees Gonna need that little blue pill to pop a tent after all the false starts this winter. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, tunafish said: Gonna need that little blue pill to pop a tent after all the false starts this winter. Im skeptical, it looks like an inland runner pattern with how far west the western ridge axis is. Cold, but with that ridge axis I would think we would be on the east side of the low, and would warm up and rain in time for the storm. Gotta get that to move east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 No pattern has really lasted long either...as soon as we enter each one you see the next one already showing by Day 12...even the torch 12/30-1/4 it was evident well in advance we'd see a modification of it thereafter...I just wonder if we get to 1/22 and ensembles still look good for 2/5 or we already see the pattern flipping again by D12-14 on the ensembles to something else.That’s a really good question…..is that simply a transitional, transient pattern with the jet retraction that retros and rolls into RNA once into February? Or is it something sustainable? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, snowman19 said: That’s a really good question…..is that simply a transitional, transient pattern with the jet retraction that retros and rolls into RNA once into February? Or is it something sustainable? As I said yesterday, many La Ninas have had the torch Dec with the GOA low, good January, torch February...the so-so December, bad January is a rarer combo. It seems La nina years often see the December pattern revert back in February but that usually is because bad La Ninas are bad in December so I have no idea what will happen. 88-89 I said yesterday resembles what we've seen so far...not a terrible December temp wise but unlucky snow wise, bad January temp wise and one snow event 1/7 then late Jan-March the pattern was not bad at all, we simply got no snow. That said I think there was a SWE that year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEPS is a straight pants tent. now we wait to see if the EPS agrees This trough and ridge axis is actually too far west, by a good 500 miles. Congrats buffalo? For us it's still a risk for cutters, with no blocking when a strong shortwave hooks up with the arctic in the mid-west. Weaker waves will threaten warm sectoring SNE and eastern areas into coastal maine. Good for the far interior. With the background warmth we'll have around this time (vs climo), I'm not a fan of this look for the subforum in general. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: This trough and ridge axis is actually too far west, by a good 500 miles. Congrats buffalo? For us it's still a risk for cutters, with no blocking when a strong shortwave hooks up with the arctic in the mid-west. Weaker waves will threaten warm sectoring SNE and eastern areas into coastal maine. Good for the far interior. With the background warmth we'll have around this time (vs climo), I'm not a fan of this look for the subforum in general. I was going to say that, but figured maybe it was just a snapshot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I must admit Brooklyn has seen a lot of pants tenting maps ..even post December blocking I don’t know that these are pants tents for the CP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 There’s no such thing as a pattern that doesn’t risk cutters. Maybe something like Feb 2010….lol…but that’s about it. I’ll take that ensemble look anyway though. Poleward ridge in the eastern EPO domain will give us chances. There’s no guarantees in wx. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was going to say that, but figured maybe it was just a snapshot. it’s a 5 day average i’m just happy to see legit cross polar flow. i’m not that worried about the ridge axis… Feb 2015 had the axis along the WC with a raging +NAO and that worked wonders pretty much all patterns run the risk for cutters, but i will definitely take my chances with what all of the ensembles are agreeing upon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 lmao ninja’d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: After this storm, may have to watch for some blocking in far northern Quebec. It may help the mtns anyways turn some of these events into more snowier solutions...GFS op tries to show this. Northern Scooter highs? The climate change version? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Ok well anything with a much improved look is better than our current situ in sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEPS is a straight pants tent. now we wait to see if the EPS agrees A blue balls winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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