STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Where on the globe are the cold anomalies , anyone have a map . Is Alaska over / under performing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wasn't being sarcastic. However, there's questions as to whether the changes would necessarily play nice for winter enthusiasts (20th and thereafter). In short, +PNA likely to return. But if the +PNA is only moderately amplified and/or sets into the hemisphere through a warm (relative to season) Canada and a pinched off high Arctic. Longer ... Not just relying upon the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFs way out there from D10 onward, either. The changes are in the systemic machinery at planetary scales ... We are all aware the recent MJO monitoring and forecasting has a phase 8-1-2 presentation/migration. Something is in constructive interference - or modeled to be so - in order for that to take place, given to the erstwhile La Nina. CPC's weekly publication released yesterday, corroborates that idea "• Some changes in the observed wind patterns in both the lower and upper atmosphere portend a potential weakening of the long-lived La Nina." The MJO is not driving the pattern ...but the models predicting its current behavior, combined with these observations in real time, suggests/implicates a paradigm shift. The La Nina isn't going away on a dime..no. But, the pressure and wind patterns tend to lead the SST distribution, so the decoupling we've been seeing over the last ..since the week of Christmas, really, may signal the beginning of the end. That's quite plausibly beginning to take place. The constructive interference already beginning ...lends to the +PNA. The ensemble means all suggest this ... pretty coherently picking a date, too. Right around the 20th. In fact, the D9/10 of the operational models are in primitive detection as of last night.. We are shifting towards el nino....which is part of the reason why you (collective sense) can't count this season out. I still think we see a big finish and a nice one next season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: sounds like Fantasy baseball I get the parallel, but not for me personally. Its not the same because I spend hours and hours on that winter outlook shit....even during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Again, I don't think that we rat....but if we do, there is one in particular that this one reminds me of. Any guesses? Name that rat..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I get the parallel, but not for me personally. Its not the same because I spend hours and hours on that winter outlook shit....even during the summer. It might be the equivalent of an AL only Dynasty league which I played in for 13 years. I likely wasted months and months of time looking at the stats of middling AL prospects that never made it past A ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Again, I don't think that we rat....but if we do, there is one in particular that this one reminds me of. Any guesses? Name that rat..... 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Again, I don't think that we rat....but if we do, there is one in particular that this one reminds me of. Any guesses? Name that rat..... 06/07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: 2012? No. That season has a super strong PV all season and no hint of blocking. This season reminds me of 2001-2002, so far.....kind of a blocky December that just didn't produce, and then the PAC jet just dominated. Nothing looked awful on paper, and long range guidance kept advertising change, and we waited all season long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Again, I don't think that we rat....but if we do, there is one in particular that this one reminds me of. Any guesses? Name that rat..... I’m at 3.8” on the season…I mean something has got to give at some point. I mean it’s incredibly tough to finish in single digits here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 06/07? Again, super strong PV early on an about as hostile a pattern as one could get until it flipped in Feb. 1989 was arctic cold December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I’m at 3.8” on the season…I mean something has got to give at some point. I mean it’s incredibly tough to finish in single digits here. 3.5". It will flip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Where on the globe are the cold anomalies , anyone have a map . Is Alaska over / under performing Siberia. Seriously. Biggest cold in 20 years there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Siberia. Seriously. Biggest cold in 20 years there. GLOBAL WARMING!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Big diff is that we had the PIG in full effect that season...this year we really don't, which engenders more hope than that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I still say this is the big analog moving forward... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's a great analog. It also featured one of Buffalos largest LES events in its history around the same dates as last month. Very similar to this year. Dec 20-25th Buffalo received 82" of snow and than the rest of winter sucked. This past December was almost identical with the Christmas Blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Siberia. Seriously. Biggest cold in 20 years there. Lol, good For them . I was wondering if there were more negative anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere bc the northern side has more positive then negative . This may not be abnormal as I never look at this stuff, just more an observation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's a great analog. It also featured one of Buffalos largest LES events in its history around the same dates as last month. Very similar to this year. Dec 20-25th Buffalo received 82" of snow and than the rest of winter sucked. This past December was almost identical with the Christmas Blizzard. Yea, a lot of the crap milder winters end up good for you because the lakes remain relatively warm and unfrozen later...whenever we do get a rouge cold shot...BANG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Will any of these anal logs give me snow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I would imagine milder lake SSTs lead to greater instability, which is how you get like 12 consecutive hours of T Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 @BuffaloWeatherI wanna chase that shit one day when my kids are a bit older....we gotta link up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Will any of these anal logs give me snow? Up and in . Same way The winter weenie has shrunken and gone into hiding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will any of these anal logs give me snow? 1955-1956...though that January looked quite a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Will any of these anal logs give me snow? Doubt it, but enjoy a few flurries tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1955-1956...though that January looked quite a bit different. I was just kidding around. Big finish there. My only reserve is that I don't see Nina dying yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I was just kidding around. Big finish there. My only reserve is that I don't see Nina dying yet. It doesn't have to "die"....the atmospheric changes lead the SST, anyway, to a large extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Where on the globe are the cold anomalies , anyone have a map . Is Alaska over / under performing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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