January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

.  This is just a lil less dog shit, compared to total dog diarrhea.  
 

But this is somewhat of a curiosity all of a sudden…let’s see what the crazy Euro shows? 

I’m sort of in the Pope’s corner on that… I’m not a huge fan of those ANA bulges in guidance.  … but I’m also open minded.

I can see where there’s going to have to be some accounting for a lot of mid-level mechanics rounding the bottom of the trough. That makes us a little different… Which obviously we have a look each situation.  Even the GFS with its tendency for progressive bias at all scales is showing a burst of snow over western zones mid day Saturday.

So yeah it’s a good way to look at it , expectation-wise. – just trying to make a little chicken salad out of chicken shit

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m sort of in the Pope’s corner on that… I’m not a huge fan of those ANA bulges in guidance.  … but I’m also open minded.

I can see where there’s going to have to be some accounting for a lot of mid-level mechanics rounding the bottom of the trough. That makes us a little different… Which obviously we have a look each situation.  Even the GFS with its tendency for progressive bias at all scales is showing a burst of snow over western zones mid day Saturday.

So yeah it’s a good way to look at it , expectation-wise. – just trying to make a little chicken salad out of chicken shit

Agreed. Good post. We watch. 

[donsutherland1]

Given the discussion about snowfall and Boston's climate, some 100-year charts are below.

Select findings:

• Winter temperatures (December-February) are warming and now routinely average or exceed 32°F
• Snowfall per day with measurable snowfall has recently been increasing
• The number of days with 6" or more snowfall has recently been increasing (this outcome would be expected with climate change during initial warming where the atmosphere holds more moisture, but it remains sufficiently cold for snow). If this is the case, one should begin to see fewer days with snowfall but a larger share with significant snowfall. It's somewhat early to make that call, but 5 of the 10 largest stretches without daily snowfall of 1" or more and 10 of the 20 largest stretches without daily snowfall of 1" or more have occurred since 2000.

In part, aside from internal variability (which occurs within the context an enhanced greenhouse effect), the increase in the frequency of days with significant snowfall (6" or more), may be contributing to the recent increase in seasonal snowfall.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m sort of in the Pope’s corner on that… I’m not a huge fan of those ANA bulges in guidance.  … but I’m also open minded.

I can see where there’s going to have to be some accounting for a lot of mid-level mechanics rounding the bottom of the trough. That makes us a little different… Which obviously we have a look each situation.  Even the GFS with its tendency for progressive bias at all scales is showing a burst of snow over western zones mid day Saturday.

So yeah it’s a good way to look at it , expectation-wise. – just trying to make a little chicken salad out of chicken shit

Seems like we'll want that whole trough orientation to be shifted a bit east for getting much snow out of it where we are....maybe far western areas don't need too much movement.

It would be fitting this winter to get a legit wave bombing on the front, only for the front to be stalled too far west and we get another round of heavy rain while it snows in NY State.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm also not really concerned with the GFS showing crap like that quasi-hurricane later in the run since it has been absolutely awful since its "upgrade"

the ECMWF has been schooling it consistently at Day 5. old habits die hard lmao

I don’t know if it’s been ‘awful’ or not… I mean you may be completely correct about that I’m not responding to address that aspect – but I do know it Carrie’s on with a progressive bias - which has been noted et al.

And I frankly have been discussing it for about the past 10 years, that it tends to accumulate colder heights on the polar side of the westerlies more prodigiously than all the other models Such that by D6s and especially 10 out in time it’s almost as much as 10 dam colder everywhere on average.

Now that imposes a velocity differential wrt the other models and that’s probably accounting for its progressive bias - i’m pretty sure bias it’s registered against verification as well. But I think it’s important here. 

A progressive bias is stressing the trough and is causing it to split or bifurcate as its leaving our longitude. Such that the N piece runs up into the Maritimes or does whatever it does but the southern piece rolls out over the warm Atlantic ocean and there you go -  subtropical storm Genesis.  

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Seems like we'll want that whole trough orientation to be shifted a bit east for getting much snow out of it where we are....maybe far western areas don't need too much movement.

It would be fitting this winter to get a legit wave bombing on the front, only for the front to be stalled too far west and we get another round of heavy rain while it snows in NY State.

Maybe we can catch a break here…And have just one thing go right for us? 

[UnitedWx]

Good or bad, the 12Z GFS is showing something similar to the euro on Sunday

[dryslot]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's where we are at this year, though....you have the best mets in the region scrounging for a fruadulent anafrontal flurry. Its pathetic and immensely disheartening. And the saddest part is that you know damn well a -12SD NAO block is coming on about April 12th.

You can lock that at this lead.

[UnitedWx]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good luck snagging victory from the jaws of a fraud member 5, this season.

The good 'Ol rain changing to snow. Usually shenanigans for sure

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

The good 'Ol rain changing to snow. Usually shenanigans for sure

I'm getting Bruce Schwoegler backlash PTSD just reading this.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Rain changing to snow is like 75% of storms here.  

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Good or bad, the 12Z GFS is showing something similar to the euro on Sunday

Ya I guess we have to admit that much…

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm getting Bruce Schwoegler backlash PTSD just reading this.

I mean, it seems certain aspects of the 80s are back so why not that LOL. Just please... not the hair!

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Rain changing to snow is like 75% of storms here.  

In mixed events, I’d rather have it that way always, than the other way. 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice anal snow for NNE on the GFS.

get out the lube to grease it up

[UnitedWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ya I guess we have to admit that much…

Hey it's like shitty french fries, you know they should be way better... but it's all you got in front of you at the moment

[Kitz Craver]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

dual storms in January?

That looks like early September with storms barreling off the coast of West Africa

[STILL N OF PIKE]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I don’t think it does the science or advocacy for reducing fossil fuels much good to hyperbolize and exaggerate claims or focus headlines on tail-end of distribution risks…they are important and should be noted, but we don’t want to start reducing credibility by claiming the RCP 8.5 scenarios as remotely likely. That’s how you undermine the entire issue of CC. But this last paragraph is really out of scope even on the wx side…it’s getting more into a political discussion on the best strategy for public awareness and communicating the science. 

That was a wager that “Washington D.C” will always take . Making something worse case to ratchet up the emotion of viewers and create very staunch and loud supporters.  If they don’t do this it’s seen as a missed opportunity . And media helps them leverage it synergistically tack on a few corporates depending on the theme . Its the M.O on everything . They care not about the most plausible scenario , it threatens to slow adoption , reduce clicks and folks don’t know what’s best for them anyway . Then it creates more extremists of all sorts ..with everything and hear we are

[Baroclinic Zone]

I laughed when I saw the retrograding low on the GFS.  TC is January. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Given the discussion about snowfall and Boston's climate, some 100-year charts are below.

Select findings:

• Winter temperatures (December-February) are warming and now routinely average or exceed 32°F
• Snowfall per day with measurable snowfall has recently been increasing
• The number of days with 6" or more snowfall has recently been increasing (this outcome would be expected with climate change during initial warming where the atmosphere holds more moisture, but it remains sufficiently cold for snow). If this is the case, one should begin to see fewer days with snowfall but a larger share with significant snowfall. It's somewhat early to make that call, but 5 of the 10 largest stretches without daily snowfall of 1" or more and 10 of the 20 largest stretches without daily snowfall of 1" or more have occurred since 2000.

In part, aside from internal variability (which occurs within the context an enhanced greenhouse effect), the increase in the frequency of days with significant snowfall (6" or more), may be contributing to the recent increase in seasonal snowfall.

This is one trade off with respect to climate change that I am happy to embrace...trade a few nuisance deals for big dogs.

[radarman]

I get that warmer air can hold more water content, but I don't think that necessarily translates to more 6"+ snows, because you also can lose some with bad ratios, more front end/back end rain, etc.  IMO the increasing 6" number is more likely associated with storm track...  fewer dry fast moving active N stream storms producing light snow, more offshore systems, for whatever reason... possibly more blocking, bigger ridges out west, warmer oceans?    Maybe somebody has some real research that looks at both sides of the warmer=snowier equation (water content v accum loss) and tried to correct for track differences, not sure.

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually I doubt  a phase diagram of that Vortx out there would demonstrate it’s got very many tropical characteristics now that look at the evolution. That looks like a typical pinch off low to me

[WxWatcher007]

Punting the Fraud 5 follow up wave and hoping to get a Dak Prescott pick six to put us on the board. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Punting the Fraud 5 follow up wave and hoping to get a Dak Prescott pick six to put us on the board. 

Can someone post a brief bullet point post that names all 5 of the weather modeled frauds 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, radarman said:

I get that warmer air can hold more water content, but I don't think that necessarily translates to more 6"+ snows, because you also can lose some with bad ratios, more front end/back end rain, etc.  IMO the increasing 6" number is more likely associated with storm track...  fewer dry fast moving active N stream storms producing light snow, more offshore systems, for whatever reason... possibly blocking, bigger ridges out west, whatever.    Maybe somebody has some real research that looks at both sides of the warmer=snowier equation (water content v accum loss) and tried to correct for track differences, not sure.

Attribution studies are inherently very difficult. We've seen periods of larger storms before too surrounded by periods of lackluster storms but the recent uptick is unique in its magnitude. It's probably some combo of being luckier recently and CC....just hard to weight each one. Is it 80% CC and 20% luck? 50/50? 30/70? It would take an awful lot of data to analyze it....looking at almost every type of larger storm and analyzing the PWATs, analyzing the H5 flow, etc.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Can someone post a brief bullet point post that names all 5 of the weather modeled frauds 

Paging @40/70 Benchmark

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Can someone post a brief bullet point post that names all 5 of the weather modeled frauds 

I think it was...

Severe weather, anafrontal, WINDEX, Backlash and inverted troughs. 

Not meant to imply the science behind them isn't valid or that they never materialize, but that they are exceedingly low likelihood. 

[ORH_wxman]

I think the new england fraud five is backlash, anafront, windex, severe wx, and IVT

edit: lol, the creator beat me to it

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Attribution studies are inherently very difficult. We've seen periods of larger storms before too surrounded by periods of lackluster storms but the recent uptick is unique in its magnitude. It's probably some combo of being luckier recently and CC....just hard to weight each one. Is it 80% CC and 20% luck? 50/50? 30/70? It would take an awful lot of data to analyze it....looking at almost every type of larger storm and analyzing the PWATs, analyzing the H5 flow, etc.

Also… There seems to be a failure to understand that there’s a distinction between storm frequency and what’s actually falling from the sky.

10 storms in 1930 vs 10 storms in 2020: the 10 storms in 2020 precipitating more. there’s nothing else.  it’s that simple. 

and it’s because a warmer atmosphere in which the 10 storms occur in 2020 are formulating in more available water; more available to condensation processes in the atmosphere resulting in heavier rain. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

The Austin powers giving it a try