January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Enjoy it pretty 500mb anomalies days 11-15 are the only winter weather we’ve got - Sey-Mour Bastardi 

[tavwtby]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I hope we do get that change. If things do make a change after the 21st, people will forget about their " cancel winter ", and embrace the changes.

I am still optimistic. I cannot give up until winter's over. And I'm sure everybody else feels the same way, or you wouldn't still be here. 

I'm still optimistic as well, but the kicking the can, it seems we've seen weeklies look great after (insert time period here), and as we close in on said time, all the mechanics and teles that made the outlook look favorable have turned to crap and we rain to Maine

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nothing really has changed much in those areas the last day or so.

No, nothing has really changed.  The risk has always been super amped and rain.  The EURO is still better than it was two days ago.  I think it was yesterday at 00z or 12z the GGEM had 4 days of rain at 3-5" of water everywhere.  The aggregate is still a good risk of a front end snower for NNE (especially mtns) before it mixes, dry slots or rains.  The lower probability full "win" is just an all-snow event.

It isn't game over like it is points south at this stage.

[MuddyWx]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Models really like flipping the switch around 20th…. We’ll find out if we get pump faked, but we take for now



.

 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Enjoy it pretty 500mb anomalies days 11-15 are the only winter weather we’ve got - Sey-Mour Bastardi 

Hey it’s a weather board…post the fuckas.  It’s a good look lol.  Probably won’t play out, unless it finally does?  If it does…still tons of winter left at that point. But whatever. I and Jeff need way up north(Aroostook) and west to get this one coming…And it still looks pretty good for them currently. 

[weatherwiz]

Wow the damage in Sacramento is wild 

[Heisy]

Hey it’s a weather board…post the fuckas.  It’s a good look lol.  Probably won’t play out, unless it finally does?  If it does…still tons of winter left at that point. But whatever. I and Jeff need way up north(Aroostook) and west to get this one coming…And it still looks pretty good for them currently. 

It’s all we have to look forward to right now tbh


.

[ORH_wxman]

That is a legit very good pattern on the ensembles but we waive caution flags until much closer. 

[Hoth]

I'm on the March '12 train at this point. If we can't pull snow, lets at least get some babes in summer dresses out in the parks.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'm on the March '12 train at this point. If we can't pull snow, lets at least get some babes in summer dresses out in the parks.

It’s January 8th…that ain’t happening in January unfortunately. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is a legit very good pattern on the ensembles but we waive caution flags until much closer. 

Oh ya we do.
 

It’ll cave in most likely. But that’s a beaut of a look as you said. And at a great time climatologically too…just saying. But now it’s just a fantasy. 

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, RDRY said:

I don't understand the teleconnections nearly as well as most on here, but shouldn't they have been mostly awful for northeast cold and snow for most of December and now seemingly most or all of January?

Otherwise, they seem to be essentially useless as forecasting tools.

Your first paragraph is kinda hard to parse out what you’re trying to say there.

But I’m not sure why you’re attacking the teleconnectors? It depends on what one is using them for. If they are using it to predict storms and snow and or warm and nice sunny weather, whichever it is they want, then they’re not using them for that what they’re designed for. They don’t predict specific weather. What they do is provide statistical correlations. 

For example… Positive height anomalies over the D St. correlates to negative height anomalies over the eastern seaboard of the United States. 

Having said that, there are no correlations that are 1::1 either m. Just because the correlation suggests, doesn’t mean that’s going to happen. But secondly it may increase or decrease the chances for getting a storm along the eastern seaboard but that’s all it does- it doesn’t drive or force the storm to happen so it’s not like if the storm doesn’t happen, or the sunny day doesn’t happen, one can blame it on the teleconnector

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh ya we do.
 

It’ll cave in most likely. But that’s a beaut of a look as you said. And at a great time climatologically too…just saying. But now it’s just a fantasy. 

Confidence is shattered until it isn't just like persistence is persistent until it isn't.

[cleetussnow]

I won’t buy a pattern change until my elderly neighbors are feeding penguins on their back porch

[bwt3650]

No, nothing has really changed.  The risk has always been super amped and rain.  The EURO is still better than it was two days ago.  I think it was yesterday at 00z or 12z the GGEM had 4 days of rain at 3-5" of water everywhere.  The aggregate is still a good risk of a front end snower for NNE (especially mtns) before it mixes, dry slots or rains.  The lower probability full "win" is just an all-snow event.
It isn't game over like it is points south at this stage.

That cmc solution would have led to all time bad conditions with how things are right now. I think we pull a net gain next weekend and anything ever is gravy..tues looks like a sneaky good ski day. That upslope Monday night looks juicy for a bit up here.


.

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

Wayyyyyyy up and wayyyyyyy in.

Constipation. 

[Rtd208]

44 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Enjoy it pretty 500mb anomalies days 11-15 are the only winter weather we’ve got - Sey-Mour Bastardi 

Fake news. 

[greenmtnwx]

NAM looks nothing like the globals. Much more confluence and high pressure out ahead of the system. 

[RDRY]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Your first paragraph is kinda hard to parse out what you’re trying to say there.

But I’m not sure why you’re attacking the teleconnectors? It depends on what one is using them for. If they are using it to predict storms and snow and or warm and nice sunny weather, whichever it is they want, then they’re not using them for that what they’re designed for. They don’t predict specific weather. What they do is provide statistical correlations. 

For example… Positive height anomalies over the D St. correlates to negative height anomalies over the eastern seaboard of the United States. 

Having said that, there are no correlations that are 1::1 either m. Just because the correlation suggests, doesn’t mean that’s going to happen. But secondly it may increase or decrease the chances for getting a storm along the eastern seaboard but that’s all it does- it doesn’t drive or force the storm to happen so it’s not like if the storm doesn’t happen, or the sunny day doesn’t happen, one can blame it on the teleconnector

Maybe it's more a case of the models simply unable to forecast the teleconnectors even a couple weeks out. How many winters do we see the ensembles suggest a pattern change two weeks out, only to have the teleconnectors ultimately not budging from the persistent pattern?

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Found the cold, Nina says hi

Maybe they can hold the Winni ice fishing derby on Okeechobee

[dryslot]

Some of GYX's long term discussion, Makes a good point,

The low is expected to track eastward from the Ohio River
Valley, but there remains discrepancy among the models about
how far northward the storm tracks. Overall there has been a
slight trend toward stronger high pressure to the north
supplying cooler air to the region, while also suppressing the
storm track further south. This scenario would allow for the
potential of a significant snowfall, especially across northern
areas. The Euro and its ensemble suite remain the most amplified
with the system. This is one of the known biases with the model
however, and was on display this past week when the bulk of the
warm air across southern New England failed to reach our area
as the storm was less amplified and stronger cold air damming
was allowed to hold across the area. With that in recent memory,
a solution closer to the cooler GFS scenario looks reasonable
at this point. This still likely brings in a mix and changeover
to rain across southern areas, but northern areas stand a chance
to stay mostly snow.

[Hoth]

38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s January 8th…that ain’t happening in January unfortunately. 

A man can dream. A man can dream.

[mahk_webstah]

18 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

NAM looks nothing like the globals. Much more confluence and high pressure out ahead of the system. 

You got Nammmed!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Thursday morning could be a little bit slick over the interior.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some of GYX's long term discussion, Makes a good point,

The low is expected to track eastward from the Ohio River
Valley, but there remains discrepancy among the models about
how far northward the storm tracks. Overall there has been a
slight trend toward stronger high pressure to the north
supplying cooler air to the region, while also suppressing the
storm track further south. This scenario would allow for the
potential of a significant snowfall, especially across northern
areas. The Euro and its ensemble suite remain the most amplified
with the system. This is one of the known biases with the model
however, and was on display this past week when the bulk of the
warm air across southern New England failed to reach our area
as the storm was less amplified and stronger cold air damming
was allowed to hold across the area. With that in recent memory,
a solution closer to the cooler GFS scenario looks reasonable
at this point. This still likely brings in a mix and changeover
to rain across southern areas, but northern areas stand a chance
to stay mostly snow.

More so down our way then up your way… but it’s funny about those “known biases”

they’ve been for the most part true every time they’re brought up, but the problem is, it hasn’t mattered. Maybe it will this time maybe it won’t. But given to your latitude up that way that would probably be the best place

[512high]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

More so down our way then up your way… but it’s funny about those “known biases”

they’ve been for the most part true every time they’re brought up, but the problem is, it hasn’t mattered. Maybe it will this time maybe it won’t. But given to your latitude up that way that would probably be the best place

Good call on the Patriots Tip!

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

NAM looks nothing like the globals. Much more confluence and high pressure out ahead of the system. 

Good luck up there. I'm just frustrated and IMBY focused. 

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Fake news. 

Not fake with the MJO becoming finally favorable 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

More so down our way then up your way… but it’s funny about those “known biases”

they’ve been for the most part true every time they’re brought up, but the problem is, it hasn’t mattered. Maybe it will this time maybe it won’t. But given to your latitude up that way that would probably be the best place

It had a us furnaced last week on the friday system and the cold air won out, We didn't have the qpf, .10" or so with 1.5" of snow as the bulk stayed south, But temps never got out of the mid 20's once the front sagged south of here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not fake with the MJO becoming finally favorable 

I do expect it, theoretically speaking, but I am totally with the "believe when see" crowd, at this point.