RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Also look at N. QUE with a 1050 high ... That's very cold air associated with that enormous +PP... If that mass were adjust S not even that much and that thing really gets wound up like a top. If only we had some resemblance of a 50/50, we could tap into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If only we had some resemblance of a 50/50, we could tap into it. Yup. and there's been inconsistencies with regard to that aspect, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sure.. for Stellwagen Bank Glad you see the 9th sailed into the sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup. and there's been inconsistencies with regard to that aspect, too. We wouldn’t even need anything stout either, I would imagine. Just enough of a transient flow to nudge it southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yes, 100% and this is the difficulty of having a discussion where climate change enters the chat. Things can be getting warmer BUT also not be the main cause of our ratter winter so far. Both of those statements can be true. Climate change is not putting a mean upper level trough over the inter mountain west with above normal heights over us. That’s just a shitty draw on a pattern that does not want to budge. Yeah this winter would be dogshit even if we were wearing knickers pulling oxen in the 1700s. Maybe ORH would’ve gotten some snow out of that 12/16 event but I can’t really point to any other events that would’ve worked well just by shaving a degree and a half off the atmospheric profile. Of course, one could claim “we wouldn’t get this upper level look in the 1700s…” which is a semi-fair point but not really valid to the discussion. Total dogshit upper level patterns have happened in all eras…maybe just the frequency of certain ones has changed. Also, you really have to do robust attribution studies on how CC connects to the hemispheric pattern. We are all old enough to remember when CC was blamed for some of the brutally cold winters (esp Midwest/plains) in the late 2000s/early 2010s…and also blamed for the increasingly -AO/-NAO patterns of that time. Somehow, we don’t hear much about that now once the AO/NAO went more positive since 2014. The funny part is the northern plains and Rockies have continued to get brutal winters in the past 5-6 years too even with a more positive AO. But the northeast has probably been the warmest place in the CONUS relative to average the past 7-8 years or so. We were due for some of that though after the relatively colder period from 2007-2015. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Go 18z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Go 18z GEFS? On a Friday night? Fuk it. Just let it go and have fun nite with family, friends, or yourself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: On a Friday night? Fuk it. Just let it go and have fun nite with family, friends, or yourself. Winters absolutely blow when there is nothing. Brown, wet, and in the 40s is just suicide. This is just depressing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 For what it’s worth Bernie Rayno has the snow threat as far south as DC and takes it up to Maine. He insisted the Christmas week threat would run inland even when the models showed an east coast blizzard. He isn’t a hype machine, he’s wrong sometimes like anyone else but I’ve been watching him for years and he’s right more often than not. That said, he did mention that the signal isn’t super strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Jan 1914 is the benchmark torch and we aren’t even close to that .. yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winters absolutely blow when there is nothing. Brown, wet, and in the 40s is just suicide. This is just depressing. Snow angels have turned to mud angels on blue hills but dammit, that’s all we got! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 hours ago, CT Rain said: At least it snows in Vermont! Which is what we all really want anyway. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Go 18z GEFS? It’s off the coast with a high to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s off the coast with a high to our north. Pants dropped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 s out prepared for salute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuteirishgirl25 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Always remember the pattern can change really fast and you don’t even know it! Don’t forget what happened in the 2014 2015 winter pattern flip 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cuteirishgirl25 said: Always remember the pattern can change really fast and you don’t even know it! Don’t forget what happened in the 2014 2015 winter pattern flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 18 minutes ago, Cuteirishgirl25 said: Always remember the pattern can change really fast and you don’t even know it! Don’t forget what happened in the 2014 2015 winter pattern flip Are you Irish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Are you Irish? and cute, and a girl, and 25 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: and cute, and a girl, and 25 The superfecta. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Winters absolutely blow when there is nothing. Brown, wet, and in the 40s is just suicide. This is just depressing. When you sugarcoat dogshit, Its still dogshit, Just like this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 hours ago, George001 said: 983 mb over the benchmark in mid Jan with a high to the north. I’m tossing the thermals verbatim on that run. Euro does run inland a bit though so i get why it rains on that, but the gfs is smoking some good shit. There’s just no way we get a low that strong over the benchmark with a high to the north and rain in mid Jan. You weren't around in 1998, were you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We wouldn’t even need anything stout either, I would imagine. Just enough of a transient flow to nudge it southward. Don't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 hours ago, cut said: I’ve totally checked out this winter after X Mas fail. All about my New York Rangers and Giants - Red Sox had about as a winter as their home town so I’m checking out from them as well. Ha, I know where you live! I've walked my dog past your house and seen the Rangers on your TV many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 hours ago, ma blizzard said: Jan 1914 is the benchmark torch and we aren’t even close to that .. yet But yet some still blame CC. So F’n silly, I can’t stand the nonsense! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: You weren't around in 1998, were you? 98 was actually cold compared to this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But yet some still blame CC. So F’n silly. Why do you have a hair across your ass in regards to CC? Non-believer? Just curious. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Some winters blow dead rats. This may be one if them. We’ll need a big shuffling of the deck chairs in the titanic for change..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, kdxken said: Why do you have a hair across your ass in regards to CC? Non-believer? Just curious. Because there’s not enough of a record! Thousands of years of climate and change…and we’ve been keeping records for what…150 yrs or so? But we’re so sure that this hasn’t happened centuries before, or millenniums before. You’ll never convince me of it. And when it was brutal cold in the 70’s what was that? Then they said a new ice age was coming Lmao. And when it starts getting colder again…maybe after we’re gone, or not, then what’s that? Oh wait…15,000-25,000 yrs ago when we had massive ice sheets over the whole place…and then they melted over a period of a few thousand yrs, that wasn’t CC? Give me frieken break. climate is always changing…that’s the point. This shit bag winter isn’t CC. I don’t want to get into it…cuz it infuriates me. It’s an agenda…period. It’s Woke to believe that shit now, so believe whatever the hell you want. I don’t believe it one bit! Im out! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 42 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: You weren't around in 1998, were you? One of my most painful memories was 2/24/98. Started off as rain and then quickly flipped to heavy snow and forecasts were for 8-12” over interior hills here. Then all of the sudden it flips to sleet and then rain after about 4” of heavy wet snow. They kept saying it should flip back but it never did. Had like 2-3” of rain on top of that paste with a benchmark track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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