January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

what is changing is the temperatures.  it is getting slowly and steadily warmer.  precip totals, incl snow, are a different matter.  But it is warmer now, on average than it was a couple/few/several/100 decades ago, on average over time.

Yeah no doubt its warmer. That shouldn't be affecting model performance though....in fact, if anything, our model performance has vastly improved in the past decade. Tracking a storm even 7-8 days would get you laughed off the forum with a weenie tag 10 years ago. Now, we've often tracked some of our biggies that far out (or even longer). It used to rarely be like that....now it's not super uncommon even if still abnormal.

I think the model changes are just more amplified in everyone's mind when we haven't gotten shit for snowstorms and we keep missing our brief windows of favorable setups.

 

[tamarack]

38 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Globally, December was dead-nuts normal using the last 30 years as a benchmark....and below normal wrt the last decade.  It's us, we suck!

"All politics weather are is local."
The northern 2/3 of Maine had significantly AN temps last month, +5 here, +6-7 from CAR north.

[weatherwiz]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah no doubt its warmer. That shouldn't be affecting model performance though....in fact, if anything, our model performance has vastly improved in the past decade. Tracking a storm even 7-8 days would get you laughed off the forum with a weenie tag 10 years ago. Now, we've often tracked some of our biggies that far out (or even longer). It used to rarely be like that....now it's not super uncommon even if still abnormal.

I think the model changes are just more amplified in everyone's mind when we haven't gotten shit for snowstorms and we keep missing our brief windows of favorable setups.

 

Part of the problem too is one's expectation and interpretation and also there are so many products offered and available and people run away with them and it just leads to chaos (Twitter is a great example of this). For example, with winter weather, you see model snowfall maps tossed around left and right and some try to use those solely for forecasting a storm way out or to hype and just give an unrealistic expectation. With severe weather you see it with the potential hazard types on the SHARPpy plots (people go buts when it shows TORNADO or PDS TORNADO) or the UD helicity swaths or SIG Tor and now these CIPS analogs. But I don't think models are as terrible as some make them out to be, it's just they're being misinterpreted.

[Damage In Tolland]

In a bit.. I’m sure the GFS will show a bomb snow cyclone for us and those buying in will take their underwear down to their ankles. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Part of the problem too is one's expectation and interpretation and also there are so many products offered and available and people run away with them and it just leads to chaos (Twitter is a great example of this). For example, with winter weather, you see model snowfall maps tossed around left and right and some try to use those solely for forecasting a storm way out or to hype and just give an unrealistic expectation. With severe weather you see it with the potential hazard types on the SHARPpy plots (people go buts when it shows TORNADO or PDS TORNADO) or the UD helicity swaths or SIG Tor and now these CIPS analogs. But I don't think models are as terrible as some make them out to be, it's just they're being misinterpreted.

Yes this is likely correct as well. Data overload and also unrealistic expectations of model accuracy at long lead time. 
 

At any rate. 18z GFS looks like a snow to rain event. Still quite a bit different than the euro. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In a bit.. I’m sure the GFS will show a bomb snow cyclone for us and those buying in will take their underwear down to their ankles. 

Big rainer again.

[Torch Tiger]

bomb rain cyclone

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

But the low is off the coast…

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Big rainer again.

Trousers pulled back up , dongs tucked , belts tightened 

[CT Rain]

At least it snows in Vermont!

[George001]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But the low is off the coast…

983 mb over the benchmark in mid Jan with a high to the north. I’m tossing the thermals verbatim on that run. Euro does run inland a bit though so i get why it rains on that, but the gfs is smoking some good shit. There’s just no way we get a low that strong over the benchmark with a high to the north and rain in mid Jan.

[RDRY]

What an oddball storm, at least as depicted. Double-barrel lows. Extreme long-duration precip. Of what, who the hell knows.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18z gfs was much better for Snow in mass than 12z

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

983 mb over the benchmark in mid Jan with a high to the north. I’m tossing the thermals verbatim on that run. Euro does run inland a bit though so i get why it rains on that, but the gfs is smoking some good shit. There’s just no way we get a low that strong over the benchmark with a high to the north and rain in mid Jan.

Did you forget the pre Xmas storm ? Same type of deal. Deep Easterly flow , no cold.. only Berks and VT on north 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

983 mb over the benchmark in mid Jan with a high to the north. I’m tossing the thermals verbatim on that run. Euro does run inland a bit though so i get why it rains on that, but the gfs is smoking some good shit. There’s just no way we get a low that strong over the benchmark with a high to the north and rain in mid Jan.

No cold air bro

Let me get some cold air out of my butt.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Did you forget the pre Xmas storm ? Same type of deal. Deep Easterly flow , no cold.. only Berks and VT on north 

The low was weaker and it was during less favorable climo. I would think this setup would snow for us in Jan.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

The low was weaker and it was during less favorable climo. I would think this setup would snow for us in Jan.

Everything you ever think is wrong .. will this time be different? 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Big rainer again.

Pretty big snow bomb for interior elevations N of pike though with an eventually change to rain. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

983 mb over the benchmark in mid Jan with a high to the north. I’m tossing the thermals verbatim on that run. Euro does run inland a bit though so i get why it rains on that, but the gfs is smoking some good shit. There’s just no way we get a low that strong over the benchmark with a high to the north and rain in mid Jan.

So much to learn jimmy 2.0

[Baroclinic Zone]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Did you forget the pre Xmas storm ? Same type of deal. Deep Easterly flow , no cold.. only Berks and VT on north 

 

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No cold air bro

Let me get some cold air out of my butt.

 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything you ever think is wrong .. will this time be different? 

Listen to these 2 weenies.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty big snow bomb for interior elevations N of pike though with an eventually change to rain. 

I would take that here

[ineedsnow]

some interesting members for Monday on the GEFS

[Typhoon Tip]

It's doing something similar to the GGEM's 12z solution ...which is to split open the event into two distinct phases... The first is an intense isentropic lift event, with perhaps 6-9 hours for a band of impressive QPF to move through, ...transitioning from snow to rain as it goes.  Then it's ENE gales into the coast and elevations inland, with mist everywhere, while the low deepens east of Jersey with the capture, cut-off drifting E from there. At that point, there's modest dynamic support of cooling and CCB cat-paw band might end with accumulating snow. 

Snow-rain-snow away from the coast in total, but there's two distinct pulses of QPF.  

I'm not sure the models are handing the slow movement of the atmosphere ( can't believe I'm saying that since 2010!!) ...but much in the same way they screw things up when the flow is fast.  In this case...there doesn't appear to be any reason to eject the isentropic engine like it's doing there around 180 hour and running up the Maine coast like that. Lows don't typical just puke their guts and turn inside out like that.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

34 minutes ago, George001 said:

983 mb over the benchmark in mid Jan with a high to the north. I’m tossing the thermals verbatim on that run. Euro does run inland a bit though so i get why it rains on that, but the gfs is smoking some good shit. There’s just no way we get a low that strong over the benchmark with a high to the north and rain in mid Jan.

When you have high heights all across canada and into newF, your cold source is marginal at best to get locked in. I couldn’t care less about some blue H on a surface map which retreats faster than your weenie in pool of cold water in April. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

some interesting members for Monday on the GEFS

? Didn’t see any for Monday

pretty low probs of 1”+ and no 3”+ probs 

[Typhoon Tip]

Also look at N. QUE with a 1050 high ...  That's very cold air associated with that enormous +PP... If that mass were adjust S not even that much and that thing really gets wound up like a top.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

some interesting members for Monday on the GEFS

Sure.. for Stellwagen Bank 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's doing something similar to the GGEM's 12z solution ...which is to split open the event into two distinct phases... The first is an intense isentropic lift event, with perhaps 6-9 hours for a band of impressive QPF to move through, ...transitioning from snow to rain as it goes.  Then it's ENE gales into the coast and elevations inland, with mist everywhere, while the low deepens east of Jersey with the capture, cut-off drifting E from there. At that point, there's modest dynamic support of cooling and CCB cat-paw band might end with accumulating snow. 

Snow-rain-snow away from the coast in total, but there's two distinct pulses of QPF.  

I'm not sure the models are handing the slow movement of the atmosphere ( can't believe I'm saying that since 2010!!) ...but much in the same way they screw things up when the flow is fast.  In this case...there doesn't appear to be any reason to eject the isentropic engine like it's doing there around 180 hour and running up the Maine coast like that. Lows don't typical just puke their guts and turn inside out like that.

The last big two-pulser I recall was December 2019.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

well, anyway... it's incrementally improved for winter enthusiasts ...I wouldn't sweat much. 

The signal for 12th -16th has really been consistent.  Folks can't expect to be model doped with d-drip at this range.  Especially because we're in a marginal atmospheric space and probably still will be heading into the period of time.  There does not appear to be any present index suggestion that a major correction in the models is necessary to happen...   

Today was marginal.  Finally got its act together...with far less dynamic power as that that thing on the 14th has, too.   It was modeled pretty warm all week - then yesterday we we had to put Advisories up.  

So, I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic...

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

what is changing is the temperatures.  it is getting slowly and steadily warmer.  precip totals, incl snow, are a different matter.  But it is warmer now, on average than it was a couple/few/several/100 decades ago, on average over time.

Yes, 100% and this is the difficulty of having a discussion where climate change enters the chat.

Things can be getting warmer BUT also not be the main cause of our ratter winter so far.  Both of those statements can be true.

Climate change is not putting a mean upper level trough over the inter mountain west with above normal heights over us.  That’s just a shitty draw on a pattern that does not want to budge.