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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Flying Pond looked okay on Wednesday - no one fishing but saw a number of auger holes made since the big deluge.  Will try there tomorrow, first ice fishing since March 2021 thanks to the 21-22 A-fib experience.  Other than the Fort Kent years, where one needs a power auger, snowmobile and ice shack (I'm 0-for-3), I've never skipped an ice fishing season since I was about 10.
Light SN since 9, about 2/3 inch new.  Doesn't take much to pretty up the woods.

 

I sell to many of the bait dealers across the state and the news i'm hearing is not good on the larger lakes statewide and some ponds in SME

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3 minutes ago, 512high said:

What I find intresting is 12/18 hrs ago things looked promising and vanish or down the drain (no pun intended ) is it "noise" these models are seeing and may correct back in favor the next 24 hrs?  

I know we’re all jaded because the Euro/EPS debacle today mirrors the epic failure in December, but the other guidance went in the opposite direction in the same suite.

I do think it’s best to wait and see what the other guidance does at 500mb the next day or so before sounding alarms and evacuating the thread. 

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I sell to many of the bait dealers across the state and the news i'm hearing is not good on the larger lakes statewide and some ponds in SME

My Chesterville source has the live bait sign out, and Flying Pond isn't all that deep and it's tucked into the hills, so the ice probably catches there earlier than places like Parker Pond or the Belgrades.

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes .. all three showing retreating high and rain . 

That's not what they're showing. What they're showing is the storm going off the coast. The whole high pressure system will be worked out as we get closer.

Don't be so bitter because you didn't get your snow today

 

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57 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I think folks need to start taking a changing climate into account. Or more than they are now. There is a bigger reason why this winter is a non starter. Hopefully someone will drill down in the off season and find it. It's painful to think that this is just the beginning of our rat winters, but it might be. 

Globally, December was dead-nuts normal using the last 30 years as a benchmark....and below normal wrt the last decade.  It's us, we suck!

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I don’t think climate change has anything to do with model guidance shitting the bed on synoptic setups. There’s no secret “climate change parameter” in the models. Climate change doesn’t magically make the laws of physics and thermodynamics change. The model guidance is simply ingesting data and then running out the equations in time. 
 

La Niña can often be a b**ch on model guidance and that is probably partially the reason we’re seeing these swings. Some of it just random variance too going against us. When models trend favorable in medium range, we aren’t usually saying “I can’t believe how bad the models are that they all of the sudden trended much better with the confluence!”

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1 hour ago, Hazey said:

I think folks need to start taking a changing climate into account. Or more than they are now. There is a bigger reason why this winter is a non starter. Hopefully someone will drill down in the off season and find it. It's painful to think that this is just the beginning of our rat winters, but it might be. 

It is an absolute banner winter out west though.  Lake Tahoe, Alta/Jackson, Steamboat, etc.

When I think climate change, I think lack of snows east and west.  To me when the Sierra to Wasatch to Tetons to Rockies are having absolutely ridiculous seasons to date snowfall wise, that’s just a persistent trough being situated in the wrong place.

Its the classic snowy west and not snowy east… trough/ridge combo.  There is a ying to our yang.

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s different. You can have a nice looking low along the BM in Jan and it can rain on the N and NW side but you’ll never ever snow in Boston if the low whips into Whiteface NY. 

How come it can rain well NW of the low in mid winter yet if the low goes even the slightest bit NW of us it’s always rain? It feels like everything has to be perfect to get snow now. Climate change is accelerating rapidly, when it gets cold it’s slightly below normal, and when it gets mild it’s record warmth. The 500mb doesn’t even look terrible.

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At least we're gaining daylight (albeit slowly) in the late afternoon. I don't remember who I was talking to about this a few weeks back, but one thing I've noticed as I get older is how much these early sunsets really affect my mood. The only time when they're fun is when it's snowing (like a really good storm). 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It is an absolute banner winter out west though.  Lake Tahoe, Alta/Jackson, Steamboat, etc.

When I think climate change, I think lack of snows east and west.  To me when the Sierra to Wasatch to Tetons to Rockies are having absolutely ridiculous seasons to date snowfall wise, that’s just a trough being situated in the wrong place.

Its the classic snowy west and not snowy east… trough/ridge combo.  There is a ying to our yang.

Blaming climate change for very unfavorable H5 trends is every bit as dumb as those scoffing at the idea of global warming in Feb 2015.

I think a better argument is during marginal events like today, when .5 - 1 degree colder would have made for a nice event. But guidance hallucinating a PV lobe into existence that turn out not to be there has nothing to do with climate change.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

At least we're gaining daylight (albeit slowly) in the late afternoon. I don't remember who I was talking to about this a few weeks back, but one thing I've noticed as I get older is how much these early sunsets really affect my mood. The only time when they're fun is when it's snowing (like a really good storm). 

I already have my fantasy baseball book for 2023, so if this fails, I'll turn to my keeper decisions.

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4 minutes ago, George001 said:

How come it can rain well NW of the low in mid winter yet if the low goes even the slightest bit NW of us it’s always rain? It feels like everything has to be perfect to get snow now. Climate change is accelerating rapidly, when it gets cold it’s slightly below normal, and when it gets mild it’s record warmth. The 500mb doesn’t even look terrible.

You need cold air around for it to snow.  I this thing cute off from the polar jet, we lose that connection to tap cold air.  We are left with a Spring cutoff low.

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Be curious to see what the analog correlations are with crappy winters in New England and disaster winters like they are having in European Alps right now.

I'm going to Krakow tomorrow and I was really hoping for that eastern european winter vibe but it is like cloudy, misty 43/35.  Uggghh.

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It is an absolute banner winter out west though.  Lake Tahoe, Alta/Jackson, Steamboat, etc.

When I think climate change, I think lack of snows east and west.  To me when the Sierra to Wasatch to Tetons to Rockies are having absolutely ridiculous seasons to date snowfall wise, that’s just a persistent trough being situated in the wrong place.

Its the classic snowy west and not snowy east… trough/ridge combo.  There is a ying to our yang.

what is changing is the temperatures.  it is getting slowly and steadily warmer.  precip totals, incl snow, are a different matter.  But it is warmer now, on average than it was a couple/few/several/100 decades ago, on average over time.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Blaming climate change for very unfavorable H5 trends is every bit as dumb as those scoffing at the idea of global warming in Feb 2015.

I think a better argument is during marginal events like today, when .5 - 1 degree colder would have made for a nice event. But guidance hallucinating a PV lobe into existence that turn out not to be there has nothing to to with climate change.

Well it feels like everything has to be perfect just to get slightly below normal. Then when the 500 mb looks slightly unfavorable we get record warmth. 

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